Free Sports Picks

Ricky's 1* play on SEA.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Seattle are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.

- NY Giants are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.

- Seattle are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games at home.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Green Bay Packers -3

The Green Bay Packers committed four turnovers and missed two field goals and still only lost to the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings 31-29 last week.  I think that loss is keeping this line lower than it should be, and we'll take advantage and back the Packers as mere 3-point favorites over the lowly Los Angeles Rams this week.

Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Rams.  They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua.  They should be 0-4 right now but managed to upset the 49ers despite getting outgained 425 to 296 in that game.  They are still getting too much respect for that win this week.

Keep in mind the Rams lost 41-10 at Arizona the previous week and that loss looks even worse now.  They lost 24-18 at Chicago last week in what was the most efficient game of the season from Caleb Williams, who looked lost until he got to go up against this awful Los Angeles defense.

The Rams rank 31st in scoring defense at 28.8 points per game, 31st in total defense at 385.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play allowed.  That makes this a very bad matchup for them going up against a Packers team that ranks 3rd in total offense at 410.0 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play.  This despite being without Jordan Love for two games.  

Now Love has a game under his belt returning from a knee injury, and early reports are he looks great in practice this week.  It was vintage Love leading the Packers back from a 28-0 deficit to the Vikings to only lose by 2.  I'm confident he and the Packers are going to light up this Rams defense, and I just don't think Stafford and company are going to be able to match them score for score with such limited weapons on offense right now.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

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Browns vs Commanders 
1 ET, October 6, 2024 
Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD 
5-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 3.5-point underdogs. 

26-13 ATS Last 39 NFL Best Bets and 2-0 ATS with 10-UNIT MAX Bets and 68% ATS last 5 years.
MNF Football Triple System 8-Unit Titan is released.

The week-to-week scoring volatility and results has been the highest ever so far this season. I did have another 10-UNIT Game of the Month winners on the Washington Commanders as the destroyed the Arizona Cardinals 42-14 and were priced as underdogs. I am 4-1 ATS with College and Pro 10-Unit Best Bets this season and both NFL plays have been dogs.  

In week 3 we witnessed the Buffalo Bills embarrassing the Jaguars on National TV and then they themselves were thrashed by the Ravens Sunday night. So, do not think for a second that a previous great or embarrassing performance by any NFL will carry over and form a trend that can be trusted. 

Favorites have gone 37-25 SU (60%) and 27-34-1 ATS (44%) this season. If that favorite is coming off a win, they have gone just 12-14 SU and 6-16-1 ATS (36%). Favorites that were priced as underdogs in their previous game have gone just 8-13 SU (38%) and 6-15 ATS (29%) this season.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-36 SU (50%) and 44-22-6 ATS (67%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on road dogs priced between 2.5 and 5.5 points. 

The dog scored fewer than their posted team total in their previous game. 

The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. 

The Browns are priced as 3.5-point road underdogs. They scored 16 points in their four-point loss to the Raiders in Week 4 priced as three-point favorites. 

From the predictive model: The projections call for the Browns to gain 6.25 or more yards-per-pass and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games over the previous five seasons, the Browns have gone 19-3 SU (86.4%) and 15-7 ATS for 68% winning bets and 6-2 SUATS 975%) if priced as the dog.

Sunday NFL Card has 4 big plays including the NFC West Game of the Year, an Executive Level tier 1, a TOP Total and Sunday night Football. There also the MLB Divisional playoff System plays and a Rare 6* in the WNBA Playoffs. NFL Comp play below.

The NFL Comp play is on Miami at 1 eastern. Miami is the better team despite both teams sitting at 1-3 on the year. The Dolphins fit an early season system that we use for small road favorites when both teams are under .500 and home teams is off a road dog loss and the road team is off a home loss. Miami has won 4 of the last 5 in the series and should be much better than they were on Monday. Play on Miami. Rob V

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Cowboys/Steelers OVER 44

The Key: The Cowboys are an OVER team this season.  Their defense is as poor as it has been in a long time, and it's getting even worse now with the losses of their 2 best pass rushers in Parsons and Lawrence to injury.  They are missing 2 key players in the secondary as well.  The Steelers just lost their star LB in Highsmith and it made a difference as they had their worst outing of the season last week in a 27-24 loss to the Colts.  Now they must face this high-powered Dallas passing game that can move the ball through the air against anyone.  There won't be many stops in this game as it easily tops this 44-point total Sunday night.  Take the OVER.

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I am anything but a Deshaun Watson apologist. Watson is one of my most disliked sports figures. But reports of him being so bad that he should be benched are grossly exaggerated. 

Watson has been getting better each week and doing it without multiple offensive line starters and underrated tight end David Njoku. The result is he's been sacked 19 times, most in the NFL. But that should change here. There's a good chance Njoku plays for the first time since opening week and both starting offensive tackles, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin, return, too. Both are above average. Wills only has played 2 1/2 quarters, while Conklin would be making his season debut. 

Jayden Daniels has been the talk of the NFL through September. Daniels has completed an insane 82.1 percent of his passes and leads all QB's with four rushing TD's. The result is the Commanders being favored by the most points in their last 11 games. 

Washington is a surprising 3-1, leading the NFC East Division. The Browns are a disappointing 1-3. They could have been at least 2-2 if one incompetent official didn't wipe out a fourth-quarter, 82-yard touchdown pass from Watson to a wide open Amari Cooper on a phantom holding call in last week's game against the Raiders. Watson was 24-of-32 passing against the Raiders despite having little time in the pocket. 
I see this spot as a clear sell high on the Commanders, buy low on the Browns.  

Washington is fat and happy returning home after consecutive road upset victories against the Cardinals and Bengals two Monday nights ago. The Browns are in desperation mode by comparison. 

But can Cleveland produce enough points? I'm confident they can with a return to health of key offensive line starters and facing a Washington defense that is one of the worst in the league especially on pass defense. The Commanders rank in the bottom-eight in scoring defense and total defense. They have yet to come up with a defensive takeaway. Part of Washington's defensive struggles are having small safeties and slow linebackers. 

Daniels struggled until garbage time when he faced the Buccaneers opening week. During his last three games, Daniels has faced the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals - all mediocre-to-weak defenses. The Browns will be the most talented defense he's seen since entering the NFL with the best pass rusher, Myles Garrett. Cleveland's Jim Schwartz is one of the better defensive coordinators. He should have a solid defensive game plan to slow down Daniels, perhaps having speedy, versatile linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah shadow Daniels. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover went 5-1 on his NFL plays last week, looking to beat the NFL for the 27th time in 32 years. Stephen has five Sunday NFL plays in addition to this free selection.)

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Texans are off to a 3-1 start, they've yet to cover a spread, going 0-3-1 ATS. I like their chances of breaking through in that department on Sunday as they host the Bills. Buffalo is looking to bounce back off last Sunday night's lopsided defeat in Baltimore. The injuries are piling up for the Bills and now they'll also be without Von Miller as he's been suspended for violation the league's personal conduct policy. This is a green light matchup for the Texans offense after they turned in a shaky performance against the division rival Jaguars last week. There will be brighter days ahead for the Bills (they'll face the Jets next week), I'm just not convinced they'll be able to keep up with the Texans on Sunday afternoon. Take Houston.

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Sunday’s FREE NFL WINNER: Over CARDINALS/49ERS.

Games 467/468.

1:05 PM PST/4:05 PM EST.

San Francisco has won a covered both games at Levi Stadium this season, and despite being a big banged-up, they enter this matchup with confidence, knowing they have won and covered the last four meetings in this division rivalry. Despite having quite a few injuries, the 49ers are still a touchdown favorite here. The reason why they are, is because they are stacked with talent deeper than the pancakes at your favorite local breakfast eatery. The total has gone over five consecutive meetings in this series. I feel the oddsmakers have a sharp side here. Goes up, take the ‘dog. Goes down, take the fav. No question lots of scoring. Take the OVER. Thank you.

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Houston Texans +1.5

The wrong team is favored in this game.  I have the Texans and Bills power rated as two even teams.  So getting the Texans as home underdogs is a nice value.  The Texans have reinforcements on the way with Tank Dell returning this week, and Joe Mixon likely returning.  The Bills lost more players last week in their 35-10 home loss to the Ravens.  They were already without LB Terrel Bernard, LB Matt Milano and CB Taron Johnson.  WR Khalil Shakir and LT Dion Dawkins both got banged up against the Ravens.  Now DE Von Miller has been suspended.  The Bills are short on weapons on offense, and short on depth on defense.  Give me the Texans.

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This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our Sunday Free Play. The Ravens are coming off a big win over Buffalo on Sunday which moved it to 2-2 following a 0-2 start. It was their best performance of the season and the offense was dominant for a second straight week following a victory over Dallas in Week Three, a game the Ravens nearly blew a massive 28-6 fourth quarter lead. They are now in a tough situation as they hit the road for their first divisional game now being considered a front runner again in the AFC following their 0-2 start. The metrics are on their side offensively as the Ravens are No. 1 in Offensive DVOA and No. 3 in Offensive EPA and they do have an edge over the Bengals defense that has underperformed but the spot sets up well with expected Baltimore regression in the running game. The Cincinnati offense has begun to heat up the last two weeks, having scored 33 and 34 points against Washington and Carolina respectively. Those are two bad defenses but the Baltimore defense has been nothing special this season prior to stepping up against Josh Allen and the Bills as the Ravens are just No. 18 in Defensive EPA. Quarterback Joe Burrow has quietly put up three straight exceptional games with passer ratings of 100.5, 127.5 and 103.7, the latter against a solid Kansas City defense. He has his full complement of receivers back and can touch up this Baltimore secondary that is No. 19 in Defensive Passing EPA. AFC North Divisional underdogs are 23-14 ATS since 2021. Play (456) Cincinnati Bengals

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For the Week 5 matchup between the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks on October 6, 2024, Seattle is favored to win based on recent performance and statistical analysis. The Seahawks, with a 3-1 record this season, have a strong offense led by Geno Smith, who ranks second in the NFL in passing yards, and Kenneth Walker III, who has been key in the running game with four touchdowns. The Seahawks have shown vulnerability on defense, particularly in their recent loss to the Detroit Lions, where they allowed 42 points, but they remain a formidable team overall. The Giants, on the other hand, have struggled this season with a 1-3 record. Their offense has been one of the least productive in the league, averaging just 15 points per game, while their running game ranks 30th in the NFL. Injuries have also been a concern, with key players like Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary dealing with setbacks. Defensively, the Giants have managed to put up decent numbers but have been inconsistent, ranking 14th in passing yards allowed. Seattle has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL at Lumen Field. Combine this with the Giants' struggles on both offense and defense, puts the Seahawks in a strong position here on Sunday. I'm taking the Seahawks.

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Green Bay at LA Rams- Remember Jordan Love last season? Well, that guy is still MIA as this current version leads the NFL in interceptions. Green Bay has won eight of the past nine meetings but Stafford will show no love for the Packers. There are internal issues with some cheese heads as top receiver Romeo Doubs has been suspended for this one. Take LOS ANGELES RAMS

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Packers -3

I'll gladly lay the 3-points with Green Bay as they get set to take on the Rams in LA on Sunday. I think this is a get right game for the Packers after last week's home loss to division rival Minnesota. Packers got off to a horrible start in that game before rallying to make it respectable. No surprise there was a little rust for the offense in the first game back for Love after he missed some time with an injury. I also think people aren't giving that Vikings team the respect it deserves. This is a big step down in class with this decimated Rams team. LA is without their two star wide outs that really make their offense go and the defense is a work in progress. As much as I like Stafford, I don't think he'll be able to keep pace offensively with Love and the Packers. Give me Green Bay -3! 

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