Free NFL Picks

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Atlanta Falcons +5.5

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons get back QB Michael Penix Jr, WR Drake London and WR Darnell Mooney this week.  They can match the New England Patriots score for score with the offense they will be putting on the field Sunday.  You're paying a hefty price to back the Patriots now after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  They have played a laughable schedule of Panthers, Bills, Saints, Titans and Browns during this stretch and have played far and away the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They will get some resistance from the Falcons this week.  The Falcons rank 2nd in total defense yielding only 275.6 YPG and 1st against the pass yielding just 149.1 PYPG.  That makes this a great matchup for them up against Drake Maye and this pass-heavy New England offense.  Take Atlanta.

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ATLANTA +6

Atlanta is worth a free move on Sunday. The Falcons were absolutely embarrassed last time out against the Dolphins and this is a prime bounce back spot. We're getting an inflated spread because of that loss and they matchup well with the Pats. The Falcons should have everyone close to 100% as the likes of Penix, London, and Walker are all expected to be near or at that mark. They will come out with some fire and bounce back here. This is a good spot to grab the points. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the FALCONS ATS Sunday. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Indianapolis Colts -3

There's always one or two teams that is takes over half a season for bettors and books alike to catch up to just how improved they are year over year.  The Indianapolis Colts are one of those teams this season.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

The Colts are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and there has been nothing fluky about their start.  Even in their lone loss to the Rams they had two TD's taken off the board, fumbling before the goal line and having another called back on a holding penalty.  They only lost 27-20 as 3.5-point road dogs in a game they easily could have won.

The Colts are crushing the teams they are supposed to beating the Titans by 24 and 21 in their two meetings, blasting the Raiders by 34 and the Dolphins by 25.  They have also proven they can hang with some of the better teams in the NFL.  They beat the Broncos 29-28 and racked up 473 total yards against that elite defense to prove their offense is for real.  They beat the Chargers 38-24 on the road behind 401 total yards.

The Colts rank 1st in scoring offense at 33.8 points per game, 1st in total offense at 385.2 yards per game and 1st at 6.7 yards per play.  They have arguably the best offensive line in football, which has helped allow Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor to have monster seasons to this point and be mentioned among the favorites to win MVP.

There were some issues for the Colts on defense due to cluster injuries in the secondary, but those issues are no longer.  They will get CB Kenny Moore II back this week and CB Jaylon Jones also could make his return after getting in a full practice Friday.  DE Tyquan Lewis and DT Grover Stewart were full practice participants on Friday as well, which is a good sign they'll be in the lineup.

It seems as though Aaron Rodgers just can't win.  The Jets fell apart defensively after firing Robert Saleh last season, and then he goes to Pittsburgh and now the Steelers look to have the worst defense of the Mike Tomlin era.  The Steelers allowed 33 points and 470 total yards to the Bengals and 35 points and 454 total yards to the Packers the last two weeks.

The Steelers rank 22nd in scoring defense allowing 25.0 points per game, 30th in total defense at 386 yards per game and 25th at 5.9 yards per play.  They just lost starting FS DeShon Elliott to injury last week, and that's when the Packers started mounting their comeback.  Elliott is now on IR, prompting the Steelers to trade for New England's Kyle Dugger.  This is one of the oldest, slowest defenses in the NFL and it's just not fixable.  Watt, Heyward, Slay and Ramsey are shells of their former selves.  

You can just imagine what this high-powered Colts offense is going to do to them this week, and I don't think Rodgers can keep up in another shootout with his lack of weapons.  DK Metcalf is also a shell of his former self, and Calvin Austin III is his No. 2 receiver.  He has been going heavy to tight ends, but it's just a very predictable short passing game that lacks explosive plays.  Indianapolis will have the answers for a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 25th at 297.1 yards per game. Bet the Colts Sunday.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on 49ers/Giants OVER 48

The 49ers and Giants are both decimated on defense right now, and the offenses are way ahead of the defenses as a result.  The 49ers are without Bosa, Warner, Gross-Matos, Huff, and have three other key defenders questionable for this game.  They were diced up by the Houston Texans last week and will get diced up by Jaxson Dart and the Giants this week.  The Giants are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 51 combined points with the Eagles, 58 with the Eagles and 65 with the Broncos.  The Giants are without Adebo, Flott, Green and Golston and could be without Holland this week.  Their secondary is a problem, and Mac Jones will light it up just as Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix did the last two weeks.  Give me the OVER.

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