Ross Benjamin

Rangers (Smyly) @ Angels (Channing) 10:07 PM ET

Game# 961-962

Play On: Angels -1.5 (+122) (5*)

Despite the Angels losing 4 in a row and Texas winning 4 straight they’re a hefty money line favorite of -160. The oddsmakers have certainly set the trap but I’m not falling for it. As a matter of fact, I’m calling for a decisive Angels win.

Any -1.5-run line favorite with a money line of +135 to -190 that’s coming off 3 or more losses in a row, and they’re facing a team (Rangers) which has won 4 straight or more, resulted in those run line favorites going 40-17 (70.2%) since 2015. Bet on the Angels for a 5* run line favorite wager.

Red Sox (Sale) @ Astros (Miley) 8:10 PM ET

Game# 967-968

Play On: Astros +128 (5*)

Chris Sale has shown excellent form over his last 3 starts while gathering a 0.74 WHIP during that stretch. However, since 2016, Sale has made 3 starts at Houston and collected a sizable 7.50 ERA in those outings. The Red Sox bullpen has blown 38.9% of their save opportunities this season. That’s significant considering is an outstanding 54-14 when facing teams whose bullpens blow 38% or more of its save opportunities. For comparison sake, the Astros bullpen has only squandered 17.6% of their save opportunities in 2019.

Wade Miley is 4-0 in his home team starts this season with a stellar 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Despite losing at home to the White on Wednesday and Thursday, Houston is still an excellent 18-6 this season at Minute Maid Park. That certainly bodes well for home underdog betting value in this case. The Astros bullpen has been in lockdown mode throughout its previous 7 games while amassing a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Houston has plenty of power which is evidenced by them hitting an average of 1.76 home runs per game.

Any MLB home team that averages 1.25 or more home runs per game, and they’re facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 0.80 or better during his previous 3 starts, resulted in those home teams going 40-16 (71.4%) since 1997, and that includes 8-2 this season. The 56 teams at home average money line was +111.8. Bet on the Astros for a 5* money line underdog wager. 

White Sox (Lopez) @ Twins (Berrios) 8:10 PM ET

Game# 965-966

Play On: Under 9.0 (5*)

Reynaldo Lopez has made 2 career starts at Minnesota with each going under and he posted a sparkling 1.38 ERA. The White Sox are coming off yesterday’s 4-0 win over Houston. Chicago is 19-8 under (70.4%) the total during the past 2 seasons following a game in which they allowed 1 runs or less.

The Twins Jose Berrios has made 5 career home starts against the White Sox and was brilliant in each of those appearance. During those 5 outings, Berrios collected a terrific 1.18 ERA and 0.68 WHIP while pitching 7.0 innings or more on every occasion. Minnesota is coming off yesterday’s 16-7 blowout win over the Angels. Since 2017, the Twins are 17-6 under (73.9%) at home following a game in which they scored 9 runs or more. Bet on this game to go under for a 5* wager.

[email protected] Raptors 8:30 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Bucks +1.0 (5*)

This is a Toronto team that’s gone 39-11 (.780) at home this season and is coming off 3 straight wins to put Milwaukee on the brink of elimination, yet, they’re just a paltry 1.0-point favorite. The odds-makers have set the tap for bettors to jump on the home side. The Raptors made 18 three-points and 25 free throws during its Game 5 win at Milwaukee. NBA home teams (Raptors) that are coming off a win in which they made 18 or more three pointers and 25 or more free throws are 2-10 ATS and 4-8 straight up since 2015. If they were facing an opponent with a win percentage of .440 or better, they fell to 1-6 SU&ATS. By the way, Milwaukee is a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS on the road this season following a straight up favorite loss in their previous game. The Bucks won those 7 contests by a substantial 14.0 points per game. Bet on the Bucks for a 5* wager.

Red Sox (Price) @ Astros (Peacock) 7:15 PM ET

Game# 921-922

Play On: Red Sox +117 (5*)

Brad Peacock has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball this season and especially of late. However, in 4 career starts against Boston he’s collected an alarmingly high 9.20 ERA and 2.24 WHIP.

Since 2013, David Price has made 5 starts at Minute Maid Park in Houston and posting a stellar 2.53 ERA during those outings. Price has exhibited very good form over his last 5 starts overall by compiling a 2.17 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Boston will look to rebound from last night’s 4-3 loss to the Astros. The Red Sox are a highly profitable 6-1 in their last 7 following a loss in their previous game. Boston has also smacked an impressive 16 home runs throughout their previous 7 games. Bet on the Red Sox for a 5* money line underdog wager.

Bucks @ Raptors 8:30 PM ET

Game# 511-512

Play On: Under 212.5 (10*)

Toronto has been terrific defensively throughout their 9 home playoff games. Thru that stretch, the Raptors held visiting opponents to 96.0 points per game, 40.1% shooting, and permitting them to make only a mere 31.6% of their three-point attempts. As a matter of fact, during the first 5 games of this Eastern Conference Final Milwaukee is a terrible 30.3% from beyond the 3-point line.

Toronto made 18 three-point shots and 25 free throws in the previous game. Yet, that contest still went well under the total by 9.0-points. The pace in which this series has been played has slowed considerably. The first 2 games of this series saw a combined average of 182.0 field goal attempts per game and the previous 2 produced just 167.5 per outing. Games 3 and 4 in Toronto had closing totals of 221.5 and 217.5. Both contests went over but that hasn’t deterred the odds-makers from dropping this opening total down to 214.0. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.