Ross Benjamin

Chiefs @ Buccaneers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Buccaneers +110 (5*)

Tampa Bay is coming off last week’s 14-12 home loss to Green Bay. The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 regular season home games following a loss and won by an enormous average of 22.2 points per game. The Tampa Bay defense has been outstanding throughout their first 3 contests while allowing a paltry 9.0 points and 289.0 yards per game. The last times these two teams met was in the 2021 Super Bowl when Tampa Bay routed Kansas City 31-9. The Bucs defense frustrated Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs high-powered offense in that contest by forcing them to be patient and keeping the huge chunk plays to a minimum. I look for more of the same on Sunday night.

Give me Tampa Bay for a money line wager.

Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*)

I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat.

Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game.

NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests.

Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Cardinals @ Panthers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Panthers +1.0 (5*)

Arizona has gone 9-1 SU&ATS during its last 10 regular season away games. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are coming off a 20-12 division home loss to the Rams which left them with a 1-2 record. Arizona is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away following a division home loss and were outscored by 17.3 points per game.

Carolina is coming off a 22-14 home win over New Orleans which improved their season mark to 1-2. The Panthers 2 losses have come by a combined 5 points. So, with a little bit of luck they could very easily be 3-0. The Panthers are a poor 7-22 during their last 29 at home, and last week’s home win over New Orleans snapped an 0-7 SU&ATS skid in games played at Charlotte. Additionally, 6 of those previously mentioned 7 home wins have come when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0.

Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a win in which they scored 22 points or more, versus an opponent with a losing record and is coming off a loss in which they scored 21 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 17-1 SU (94.4%) since 2016. If those home teams were -2.5 to +4.5, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.8 points per game. Give me the Panthers.

Jaguars @ Eagles 1:00 PM ET

Game# 265-266

Play On: Eagles -6.5 (5*)

Philadelphia is coming off last Sunday’s 24-8 win over Washington and covered easily as a 6.0-point favorite. Jacksonville is coming off a 38-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. This sets up an unbeaten NFL ATS betting angle which is shown below.

Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or less (Eagles) that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 9.5-points or greater, versus an opponent (Jaguars) off an away underdog SU win and has a win percentage of .416 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS. The average victory margin for those home favorites was 15.5 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points.

Chargers @ Texans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Under 45.5 (5*)

Since 2019, the Chargers have played 12-3 to the under during its first 4 games of the season, and that includes 6-1 to the under on the road.

The Chargers are coming off an embarrassing 38-10 home loss to Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 6.5-point favorite. Houston is coming off a 23-20 loss at Chicago in their previous game. Listed below is a perfect NFL totals betting angle pertaining to this matchup.

Any NFL team (Chargers) with a losing record that’s coming off a game in which they failed cover by 28.0 points or more, and they scored 13 points or fewer in that contest, versus an opponent that scored 27 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those contests playing 15-0 to the under since 2013. The average total in those 15 contests was 42.4 and there was just a combined 32.2 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.

Titans @ Colts 1:00 PM ET

Game# 253-254

Play On: Colts -3.5 (5*)

Tennessee’s offensive strength is their running game. However, that aspect of their game has been disappointing throughout their first 3 games of the season. It doesn’t get any easier against a Colts defense which has held their first 3 opponents to a mere 77 yards rushing per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per attempt. Furthermore, after trading away start wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia during the offseason, the Titans sorely are lacking a receiver that can threaten opponents in the deep vertical passing game. Another concern for Tennessee is their defense is allowing 145 yards per game rushing and will have the unenviable task of trying to slow down star Colts running back Jonathan Taylor.

Give me the Colts minus the points.