Ross Benjamin

Chicago @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Tampa Bay -11.5 (5*)

One of my cardinal rules has been to never lay a double-digit number in the NFL. However, this is a rare exception. The Chicago offense has amassed more rushing yards than passing yards in each of their previous 5 games. That’s a real rarity in the modern-day NFL. That’s also an issue since the will be facing a Tampa Bay defense that’s #1 in the NFL against the run in allowing a mere 54.8 yards rushing per game. The Tampa run defense was also #1 against the run last season as well at 80.6 yards allowed per game. How about Chicago’s pass offense? Well, I’m glad you asked. Their averaging a pathetic 117.2 yards passing per game which is dead last in the NFL and by a substantial margin. The Bears have also allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked a league high 22 times. The Chicago defense is #7 in total defense. Nonetheless, against a relentless and explosive offensive attack that Tampa Bay possesses, they’ll get completely worn down as the game progresses. Additionally, since 2019 the Bears have gone 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14.0 and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game.

This will be the 3rd time that Tampa Bay is a double-digit home favorite since 2019. They covered each of the previous 2 and won by a mammoth 25.5 points per game. The Bucs are 3-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by a massive 29.3 points per game. They’ll be facing a Bears team that has averaged a paltry 13.3 points scored per game in 3 road contests. Bet Tampa Bay minus the points.

Atlanta @ Miami 1:00 PM ET

Game# 459-460

Play On: Atlanta -122 (5*)

You can make the case that picking a winner in this game comes down to the lesser of 2 evils. My take is there are other underlying factors that leans heavily toward the road favorite Falcons. For starters, Atlanta will be playing with a week of rest and is coming off a 27-20 win over the Jets in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Atlanta outgained the Jets in total offense that contest by a decisive 450-230. On the other hand, Miami has lost 5 games in a row and hit rock bottom in last week’s 23-20 loss to a winless Jacksonville team. Furthermore, this is a mentally fragile Miami team. The front office is actively pursuing a trade to bring quarterback Deshaun Watson in via trade and Tua being included as part of a 3-team deal. Lastly, Miami wasn’t scheduled for a bye week after playing in Europe last week and that’s a rarity. Bet Atlanta on the money line at -140 or less or on the point-spread at -3.0 or fewer.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET

Game# 451-452

Play On: Under 46.0 (10*)

Cincinnati has seen each of its last 5 games go under the total and there was a combined 41.6 points scored per contest. Under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has now played 10-2 to the under in Games 1 through 8 of their season and there was a combined 41.6 points scored per contest. Cincinnati has averaged only 9.0 points scored per contests in their last 4 meetings versus Baltimore, and 3 of those stayed under the total. The Bengals defense has played well this season while allowing 18.5 points and 331.5 yards per game. Cincinnati has played 3-0 to the under in road contests this season and held those opponents to just 13.7 points scored per game.

Baltimore is coming off an impressive 34-6 home win over the Chargers. It was by far the best performance by the Ravens defense to date when considering the opponent. They held the explosive Chargers offense to just 208 yards. Since 2019, Baltimore has played 5-1 to the under at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer. Bet on this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.