Mr. East

The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 on the season, and that one loss has influenced the stats in a very hidden way. The Packers played a stinker in their opener vs the Saints which resulted in a 38-3 loss. The Packers turned the ball over 3 times, and did nothing on both sides of the ball. Since then they are averaging 28.2ppg and allowing 16.6ppg or winning by an average margin of 11.5ppg. The defense is allowing just 314 yards per game, and the offense has seen a worst performance of 323 yards. The Packers have turned the ball over just 2 times in the 5 wins. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke is 3-11 ATS in all games, and enters with a passer rating of 82.1. He has already thrown 6 INT's. The Packers are in their wheel house when playing at home where Aaron Rodgers is 25-3 SU and 19-9 ATS including 21-9 ATS as a home favorite of -5.5 to -12.5. He has 75 TD passes in those games to just 5 INT's. Washington has allowed 34.3ppg in their last 3 and will have trouble staying in this game. Make the play on Green Bay.

The Tennessee Titans got a big win over the Buffalo Bills at home on Monday Night. They spent a lot of mental,physical, and emotional energy in that game. They had a big run by Henry for a 75 yard TD, but other than that they were limited to 287 total yards, while yielding 417. Ryan Tannehill is having a tough season. He has just 6 TD passes, after throwing 32 a year ago, and the offense is relying on Henry far to much. They hav 26 players on the injury report, of which 18 are on the IR. That is hard to overcome especially off a big emotional win and a short week. Kansas City is just 3-3 and a lot of that points at all the turnovers. The Chiefs have turned the ball over 14 times, and Mahomes has thrown 8 picks already after throwing just 8 all of last year. He has been too good and this is just variance, and I would expect going forward he will clean those up. Despite all that the Chiefs are scoring more at 31.2 points per game, despite the fewer possessions and Mahomes is completing 69% of his passes a career high, so there is evidence the interceptions will calm down and when they do the Chiefs are going on a run. It begins in Tennessee. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Detroit Lions are off to an 0-6 start to the season. These teams essentially traded QBs and Matthew Stafford has the Rams at 5-1. Jared Goff has struggled in Detroit where injuries have decimated WRs. I would suspect that the Rams will borrow from last week's playbook when they faced a similar Giants team lacking healthy WRs. They blitzed the Giants on about 30% of all plays. The Rams Aaron Donold should be in the backfield all afternoon, as the Lions have no one to block him. Cooper Kupp has a great match up as well and I would expect him to have another big game. Stafford's numbers are off the charts good so far and he should be highly effective this week. Another long after noon for the Lions is in store here, and for the many that don't like to lay huge points, since the start of the 2014 season a team favored by 14.5 or more points has gone 21-9 ATS. Make the play on the LA Rams.

The New England Patriots have lost 4 straight games at home. They certainly won't be taking the Jets lightly, as they are in dire need of a win. It is rare for a rookie QB to beat a Bill Belichick team as he owns a 23-6 SU record against them. The Jets are averaging just 13.4 points per game and an even worse 7 points per game on the road. Zach Wilson has yet to figure things out and has thrown 9 INTs already through 5 games. He has a passer rating of 62.9. The Pats have lost games by 2 points, 3 points, and in overtime, so with just a little luck they could have a winning record. The Jets are being out-gained by 107 yards per game. The Pats have beaten the Jets 12 straight times. New England is 49-23 ATS in their last 72 games after allowing 30 or more points. Make the play on New England.