Michael Alexander

Rating: 2 Units

Pretty high price considering the Sharks are unbeaten -- shockingly -- but the fact it's an early start for a West Coast team plus a fourth straight road game, well, I think the Bruins win in a rout. I generally don't do the -1.5 puckline, however.

Rating: 2 Units

 Both these teams played last night, but the Predators were in Winnipeg while the Wild were at home. Both backup goalies are expected to play too. Kaapo Kahkonen played well last season but Connor Ingram is a Predators prospect and this would be his first NHL game. The Wild are 4-0-0 to start the season while the Predators are 1-4-0 to start the season. I like the Wild to stay undefeated today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers are 0-2 and Russell Westbrook hasn’t been great. He’s a combined 10-for-28 from the field and he has eight turnovers compared to 13 assists. The Grizzlies dispatched the Cavaliers by 11 points in their season opener and the Clippers by six points on the road Saturday. While this is another road game, they are playing in the same arena, so travel won’t be an issue. They are an extremely deep team even with Dillon Brooks (hand/thigh) out, so don’t be surprised if they keep this close.

NFL Free Pick - Carolina at New York Giants

The Panthers (3-3) are on a three-game skid, losing their past two at home. They're 0-2 against NFC East members. To avoid another slip-up against a team from that division, Carolina will have to figure out quite a few things on offense. That could boost a defense that might be getting worn down late in some games.The Panthers had less than 27 minutes of possession time in Sunday's overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings, so that might have been part of Rhule's concern. The Giants (1-5) have given coach Joe Judge lots to assess as they try to get something going. Carolina will remain without injured running back Christian McCaffrey. But Rhule said rookie Chuba Hubbard, who has 281 rushing yards this season, has shown the ability to pick up crucial yards. While Darnold has received attention this year based on a few running plays for touchdowns, it's Giants quarterback Daniel Jones who has been a more accomplished ballcarrier. In the past two-plus seasons, he's the third-leading quarterback in the NFL in rushing yards with 903. . With McCaffrey on the IR, and the Panthers 1-4 ATS as non-division road chalk of fewer than 5 points, look for the Giants to improve on its 5-1-1 ATS record versus NFC South opponents today.
 
Don't miss Michael's SNF Game of the Month, 5* NFL Blowout and 4* NFL Play of the Day

Rating: 2 Units

Undefeated non-div home teams in game 5 > (Cards) have gone a perfect 0-11-1 O/U L5 years when the OU line is > 45 pts. At last look, ‘Zona was pegged as big home favs of -16.5 to -17 pts. Consider that all big non div home favs of -13 > pts (Cards), when the OU line is 72 or less points is 7-26 O/U the last 5 years. In last week’s road win over Cleveland, the Cardinals scored 37 points.

Rating: 2 Units

The piss-poor offense of Detroit is ranked #28 in scoring (only 18.3 ppg). In fact, they have scored 17 or LESS points in EACH of their last five games (1-4 O/U). They’ll be taking on a Ram’s defense that has stabilized as of late, allowing only 14.0 ppg in their last two wins. The host Rams are one of three really big home favorites this weekend, as they are laying 15 to 16 pts. Consider that big non-division home favs of 13 > pts with an OU line of 52 < pts (Rams) have gone 7-26 O/U in the last 5 years, including 3-17 O/U when the OU line is in the range of > 43 and < 52 pts. LA was a road fav in each of the last two weeks and brought home the bacon both times.

Rating: 3 Units

A non-conference SHOOTOUT in Las Vegas is on the menu for Week 7,
now that a NEW guy (Greg Olson) is calling the plays on offense. For us, that means the OVER in the EAGLES / RAIDERS affair. All it took was one game for the revelation. John Gruden’s designed offense was indeed holding the Raiders back. In their 34-pt explosion (and 426 yards) over the best home defense in the NFL (Denver), ALL the pieces on the Raiders offense had a role... which wasn’t even the case when the offense was scoring points earlier in the year.  The Eagles have gone 31-14-1 OU (69%) on the road since 2015, including 15-4 O/U as dogs of 6 < pts. In addition, Philly’s last 15 non-conference road games have gone 12-2-1 O/U, with an avg margin of +8.5 ppg.

Rating: 2 Units

This game at Lambeau Field has the potential to be the most WIND-AFFECTED contest of Week Seven. Weather Report: Overcast... chance of showers... winds in excess of 13-17 MPH... The 2021 Washington offense doesn’t scare anyone. Against the league’s 2nd WORSE defense last week (Chiefs),Washington managed only 276 yards and 13 points. That’s not a very encouraging sign. With key injures at all FOUR skill positions (QB / RB / WR / TE), it’s no wonder they’re stuck in neutral with a ranking of only #24 on offense. Consider that All NFL road teams after allowing a COMBINED 136 or MORE pts in their last 4 games (Wash), when the OU line is 54 < pts is 1-11-1 O/U the last 4 years.

Rating: 5 Unit SNF Game of the Month

The fact of the matter is the Colts’ two wins this season have come against the likes of Houston and Miami, 2-10 combined on the year with 10 successive losses in a row. Enter the nasty Niners, coming off a bye week on a three game
losing skid, while sporting the better ‘O’ and ‘D’ in this contest. Frisco is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS of late against AFC South opposition. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo back after being sidelined the last six quarters with a calf injury, look for him to improve on his 20-7 SU and 16-11 ATS career mark against non-division foes here tonight. Finally consider that the 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 ATS In his NFL career when coming off three losses in a row.

Rating: 4 Unit NFL Play of the Day

McDermott was going for the win, and given how well Tennessee was moving the chains in the second half, he likely would’ve lost in overtime had the Titans won the coin toss. He was taking matters into his own hands. His own hands failed him, but the gutsy call should be admired because many NFL coaches are too conservative. With it all, consider that defending Super Bowl losers are 2-12 ATS as non-division favorites when facing an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 1-10-2 ATS when facing a foe with revenge.

Rating: 5 Unit Blowout

Figure the Ravens will not let the success of the last two home wins the past two weeks cut short their five-game win skein, not behind a burgeoning defense that has held three of its last four opponents to season-low yards. To confirm those thoughts, consider that NFL teams in the 3rd of a 3-game home stand, with a bye week on deck, are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS during the regular season. Playing on any NFL home team coming off consecutive home games who has a week of rest on deck if they scored more than 3 points in their last game and they are facing an opponent coming off a win of more than 7 points is 14-0 ATS since 1980.