Michael Alexander

Rating: 3 Units

The Over 54 looks like a strong angle because both Dallas and Detroit bring top‑tier offenses with defenses that have been shaky at times. The Cowboys lead the league in passing at 271.3 yards per game and average 29.3 points, while the Lions are right behind them at 29.2 points per game with a balanced attack that ranks top‑five in rushing. Dallas’ defense has been one of the worst in the NFL, allowing 28.5 points per game (31st), and Detroit has shown vulnerability in the secondary, giving up multiple big plays in recent weeks. With Dak Prescott and Jared Goff both capable of pushing tempo and weapons like CeeDee Lamb, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs on the field, this matchup has all the makings of a shootout that clears the 54 total.

TNF Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Clearly, the Cowboys are playing their best football of the season and remain in the NFC playoff picture (currently the No. 9 seed). Our concern for Dallas tonight, though, is that the Lions are 3-0 SUATS at home by an average win margin of more than 15 PPG when coming off consecutive home games against foes coming off an upset win as a dog. They are also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS facing sub-.666 opponents when coming off a game against Green Bay. The Lions crushed Dallas 47-9 as 3.5-point road favorites last year, and they’re laying the same number here after a humiliating loss. Consider that the Lions HC is 8-1 SUATS in his career after a setback as a favorite, including 8-0 SUATS with a .333 or greater record

Rating: 2 Units

Don’t look now, but the Nets have won back-to-back games, cashing big underdog tickets. The Jazz are going to be favored because they’re the better team on paper and have the rest advantage with the Nets playing last night. However, the Jazz aren’t that much better, and they’re 1-7 SU on the road. This will be just the 21st time since 2024 where the Jazz are favored. This isn’t a good team and I have no interest in laying points. We’ve hit on the Nets in back-to-back games. I’ll go back to the well. Give me the bucket.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pelicans are a mess across the board, and their injury report doesn’t help matters. However, as I mentioned in the previous meeting a couple of days ago, the Timberwolves are a team that plays with its food. The Timberwolves were double-digit favorites on Tuesday and needed overtime. The Timberwolves have failed to cover their last 3 games as a double-digit favorite. I don’t like the Timberwolves in the big favorite role. Like the previous matchup, give me the points with the Pels.

Rating: 2 Units

Cal Poly is 4–5, most recently defeating RED 87–81. The Mustangs have been involved in several shootouts already and lean heavily on their offensive firepower. They score 81.4 points per game but allow 85.6. If holding true to form, the 177 total is just too high.