Matt Fargo

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Even though the Royals possess the second worst record in baseball, arguably the wrong team is favored here. Kansas City has dropped two of three to open this series and are on a 1-6 run, but it has a distinct edge on the hill this afternoon and can take advantage of a slumping Detroit offense. The Tigers are not playing much better as they are 4-9 over their last 13 games and have lost four straight games following a win. Additionally, the Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Brad Keller gets the ball for the Royals and he is coming off an average start against the Pirates but that was the first time in seven starts he allowed more than two earned runs. Overall, he has a 3.17 ERA in 19 starts and the Royals are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Detroit counters with Daniel Norris and he has struggled this season with a 5.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in six starts. He was able to put together his longest outing of the season last time out but it reached just 5.1 innings and to add to the disadvantage, Detroit is averaging only 3.0 rpg in his starts. Here, we play against American League favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that are hitting .260 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. This situation is 39-18 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (971) Kansas City Royals

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Along with the Bills and Giants, the Cardinals are being grouped into the worst teams in the league but as mentioned in other analysis, early season overreactions tend to inflate lines and we feel that is the case here as well. The Cardinals offense has mustered just 350 total yards in 2 games. For comparison, their defense has allowed 429 and 432 yards respectively. The Bears defense is ranked No. 8 in the NFL and on paper it should dominate a Cardinals offense that cannot get out of its own way. However, things do not always come out like they should on paper in this league and for a team that has not had a winning season since 2012, laying close to a touchdown on the road is extremely aggressive. Arizona still has weapons on offense and we cannot forget new systems are being put into place that can take a few weeks to come together. The Cardinals are hoping it is this weekend to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2005. A lot of this game comes down to the Bears offense which is still looking pretty vanilla under a new system as well. Even though Mitch Trubisky started 12 games last year, his development was stunted playing under John Fox and Dowell Loggains last season. It is going to take a while for head coach Matt Nagy get Trubisky going as he has been up and down this season, excelling in the early scripted drives and sputtering under the gun. The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win and Arizona falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on teams after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (484) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Afternoon Dominator. The Rams are the talk of the NFL along with Kansas City as Los Angeles has looked incredible over its last six quarters. Since going into halftime down 13-10 against the Raiders, the Rams have outscored their opponents 57-0 over the last 90 minutes. The fact they are ranked in the top seven in both total offense and total defense should come as no surprise and it is these types of short-term performances that the public eats up which affects the placement of the line and we are seeing that here. Turnovers and special team killed the Chargers in their opener against the Chiefs as despite a 10-point loss, they outgained Kansas City by 179 total yards and followed that up by dominating Buffalo early and then taking the foot off the gas. While the Rams are ranked No. 7 and No. 3 in total offense and total defense respectively, the Chargers are ranked No. 3 and No. 9 in those categories respectively and based on roughly the same strength of schedule, they should not be a touchdown underdog. The Rams defense will be the toughest that the Chargers have seen early in the year, but the Chargers have a lot of weapons to spread the ball around to. They have a good offensive line so Rivers is not going to be under complete duress all game. The Rams do allow an above average yards after catch and the Chargers have some of the best receivers in the NFL when it comes to making tacklers miss and need to capitalize on that area of the offense. The Chargers have been one of the better road teams over the last few years as they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. Additionally, they have covered six straight games as non-conference underdogs of more than two points. 9* (481) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BALTIMRE RAVENS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. As dominant as the Ravens looked in their first game, it came against Buffalo so take it for what it is worth and playing on a short week on the road, they fell behind 21-0 against Cincinnati and were unable to recover. Baltimore now has extra time to recover from that defeat as it will be out to get back into the win column and this has been a good spot in the past as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a Thursday loss. A priority for the Ravens is getting their running game going as they are averaging 3.3 ypc, which is the third-worst in the NFL. They are facing a Denver defense that is ranked No. 7 in rushing defense but the Broncos went against below level talent at running back and faced two of the worst offensive lines in football. Stopping Von Miller is a task for every team but Baltimore should do a good job. One of the most underrated offensive linemen in the league, Ronnie Stanley is a staple and maybe even a franchise level left tackle for the Ravens as he is stout in the run game and has improved every year in pass protection. Denver is a surprising 2-0 but it has faced two teams on the decline and both of those were at home where the Broncos have a big edge early in the season because of the altitude. But they struggled to put away the Raiders at home and now they are making a long trip to a difficult road venue. Going back, the Broncos are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. 9* (470) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Taking nothing away from what the Chiefs have done to start the season but the overreactions are hitting hard and that brings value to the other side. More than 70 percent of bets are on Kansas City, which enters Week Three as the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. Quarterback Pat Mahomes looks like he could be the real thing and everybody is loving this team right now with their impressive wins the Chargers and Steelers. But there is more to it than that and not in a good way. Kansas City has been outgained in each of the first two games due to a defense that is ranked dead last and it is not even close as it is allowing 508 ypg. While it is only two games, to put that into perspective, Tampa Bay had the worst defense last season at 378.1 ypg. The 49ers were able to pick up their first win of the season last week at home against Detroit. They did have a chance to beat Minnesota as they lost by eight points no thanks to four turnovers, one that took place in the redzone and another that was returned for a touchdown. Kansas City is one of three teams to open the season with two straight road games, Houston and Seattle being the other two, and while the public thinks that this is a huge edge for the home team, that is hardly the case. Play against home teams in Week Three after opening the season with two straight road games. This situation is 26-9-2 ATS (74.3 percent) since 2003. Making this play even stronger is the fact the Chiefs are 2-0 ATS and San Francisco is 0-2 ATS and going the opposite way in this ATS matchup in Week Three has resulted in a 68 percent winning result. 10* (479) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Game of the Month. We played against Carolina last week as it lost in Atlanta but we will be backing the Panthers as they head back home in a favorable contrarian matchup. Their first home game resulted in an eight-point win over the Cowboys as the defense dominated for three and a half quarters. Carolina had a streak of 21 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher snapped against the Falcons when Tevin Coleman ran for 107 yards, but the Panthers catch a break this week as Joe Mixon is out with a knee injury so Cincinnati has to turn to Giovani Bernard who has only three 100-yard rushing games in his career. Offensively for Carolina, the key will be not be Cam Newton but Christian McCaffrey. His strength goes against a Cincinnati weakness as while he is a talented rusher, what sets him apart is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and make people miss in space and the Bengals linebackers are not good in pass coverage. Cincinnati has been among the early-season surprises in the NFL, winning their first two games by identical 34-23 scores. The Bengals are ranked third in scoring but just No. 18 in total offense so that offense may not be as good as one may think. They have benefitted from a defensive touchdown and despite the 2-0 record, they have been outgained in both games. The defense is tied for No. 27 in total defense so of the seven 2-0 teams, this could be the biggest fraud. Carolina is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games over seven years after allowing 6.5 or more yppl in their previous game while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. 10* (464) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB National League Game of the Month. A three-game sweep over Arizona enabled the Rockies to finish 4-5 on their most recent roadtrip which got off to a horrible start. The Rockies remain 1.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West while sitting 1.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second National League Wild Card spot. Basically, they need to keep winning and the schedule is in their favor as the final two series are against teams that will not be making the playoffs. Headed back to Coors Field, Colorado is 30-13 in its last 43 home game which is the best winning percentage over that stretch. Additionally, the Rockies are 5-0 in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. The Phillies playoff chances ended over the weekend as they were swept against the Braves in Atlanta. It has been a miserable end to the season as the Phillies were 63-48 on August 5th, which was the second best record in the National League, but since then they are 15-29, which is the worst record in the National League over that stretch. Philadelphia is now 15 games under .500 on the road as it has the fourth worst road record in the league and more recent, the Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Jon Gray is pitching in place of Tyler Anderson and he is coming off a pair of poor outings but those were against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. He has been pitching much better after the break as he came in with a 3.41 ERA in his previous nine starts. Zach Eflin has tossed two straight solid outings as well but with no playoff possibility, he will not be stretched out. Aaron Nola was limited to 90 pitches yesterday and the Phillies are not going to take a risk with the young arms. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Coming into this game, many would have thought these records would have been reversed with Pittsburgh being undefeated and Tampa Bay being winless. Instead, the Steelers are winless and are in dire need of a victory before their Sunday night showdown against the Ravens and we feel they step it up big time on the road. Despite not picking up a victory, Pittsburgh has outgained both opponents and it can take advantage of a very soft defense tonight. One thing working in their favor is that the game will be played in prime time as the Steelers have won their past 10 prime time games, including their last five on the road. Line movement has been working in their favor as well as the Steelers got as high as three-point favorites in some spots, but they are now either an underdog or a pickem across the board. Those type of line movements are often a market overreaction to recent history and that is usually the case when they occur in primetime games. Tampa Bay is off to a surprising 2-0 start behind the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick and an offense that leads the NFL in total yardage and scoring offense. The problem is the defense as Tampa Bay is No. 31 in yards allowed and No. 29 in yppl and making matters worse, the Buccaneers will be without Vita Vea and Beau Allen, which are two significant injuries along the defensive line. The Steelers defense got lit up last week as they tried to disguise things while trying to matchup against the Chiefs pre-snap motion but they will keep in less complicated this week. Pittsburgh gets cornerback Joe Haden back tonight which is a huge lift for the secondary. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 50 or fewer rushing yards last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (489) Pittsburgh Steelers