John Ryan John Ryan
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 24, 2019
Cal-Irvine vs Oregon
Oregon
-4½ -110 at sportsbook
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

JOHN RYAN SPORTS

Wager Opportunity

  (13) The University of California – Irvine versus (12) Oregon University Ducks

9:40 PM EST, March 24, 2019

South Region Second Round taking place at the SAP Center in San Jose, CA

Oregon favored by 4.5-points with a 124-point total 

10-Star play on Oregon

Preview, Adjusted Metrics, and Predictive Data

  Coming into the Tournament Oregon was ranked 35th-best team in the Tournament field based on opponent-adjusted team efficiency, 107th in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, 18th in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency, and 328th in the opponent-adjusted pace of play metric. After their first-round win, they remain the 25th-best team in overall opponent-adjusted team efficiency, have moved up 18 spots to 89th in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, 18th in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency, and 328th in the opponent-adjusted pace of play metric. These rankings are based on the entire pool of 353 Division-1 basketball programs unless otherwise noted as a ranking based on the 68 Tournament teams. 

After losing on February 28th to UCLA, Oregon, and a 15-12 record and essentially very little chance of being awarded an at-large bid to the Tournament. However, they have not lost since then winning 9 straight games and covered the spread in all nine. During this win streak, their offense steadily shot higher percentages I games and have shot over 52% in each of the last two games. Their defense has allowed two opponents to shoot better than 34% from the field during this stretch. 

UC-Irvine (UCI) has had an even greater win streak and are playing at their best levels of the season right now. They have won 17-straight games (12-5 ATS) and none were bigger than their upset of No, 4 seed Kansas State Friday. Entering the Tournament they ranked 66th in opponent-adjusted team efficiency, 129th in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, 56th in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency, and 298th in the opponent-adjusted pace of play metric. After their first-round win they moved up to 54th in opponent-adjusted team efficiency, 111th in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency, 56th in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency, and 244th in the opponent-adjusted pace of play metric. There are no other teams remaining in the Tournament that is hotter than this pair and there will be a double-digit seed in the Sweet-16 Round.

For this game, my machine learning and algorithm tools recommend a play on the No. 12 seed Oregon Ducks giving 4.5 points over the No. 13 seed UCI Anteaters.

I use Python to generate situational queries that match the projections produced by the machine learning models. Searching for valuable Round 2 insight we learn that No. 10 seeds and higher are 17-5 ATS when favored and No, 13 seeds and higher whether favored or a dog is 7-40 SU and 13-33-1 ATS. So, both of these are supportive of Oregon and work against UCI. 

This database situational query has earned a 60-17 record for 78% over the last 22 seasons and instructs us to play against  a dog using the money line after beating the spread by 48 or more points in total over their last seven games and posses a win percentage of 80% and higher and are now facing an opponent with a win percentage between 60 and 80% for the season. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 24, 2019
Iowa vs Tennessee
Tennessee
-8 -102 at pinnacle
Lost
$102.0
Play Type: Premium

JOHN RYAN SPORTS

Wager Opportunity

  7-Star Wager (5,7 and 10-Star scale) on the Tennessee Volunteers as they take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 12:10 PM EST, March 24, 2019. 

Machine Learning Projections and Database Situational Queries

 Using overall Division-1 and Conference specific ranks for offensive and defensive performance metrics is a great start to finding game intelligence useful for forming wagering opportunities.  When efficiencies are added these metrics, the team’s opponents’ strengths, weakness, and pace of play are baked into the metrics and offer even greater insight.  Before the Tournament started Tennessee ranked 8th in overall team efficiencies, third in offensive efficiency, 31st in defensive efficiency, and 158th in pace of play metrics.  After their first-round win, Tennessee fell to the ninth-best overall team left in the Tournament, remained at third in offensive efficiency, fell to 34th in defensive efficiency, and fell to 164th in pace of play metrics. 

Iowa came into the Tournament ranked 36th in overall team efficiency, 15th in offensive efficiency, 115th in defensive efficiency, and 74th in pace of play metrics.  After their first-round win over No.7 seed Cincinnati 79-70, they now have moved up to 34th in overall team efficiency, 14th in offensive efficiency, and 72nd in pace of play metrics. 

The reason I am showing that Tennessee has fallen and Iowa risen in these ranks to reflect the fact the public sentiment has turned bearish on Tennessee and bullish on Iowa resulting in a very cheap betting on Tennessee line of 8-points.  Using some advanced mathematical applications, my line would show Tennessee as a 14-point favorite in this neutral court environment.  The 6-point differential between the market price of 8-points and my estimated price of 14-points is the discount that Vegas lines makers have anticipated for this matchup. 

I use Python and other tools to generate situational queries that match the projections produced by the machine learning models I have developed over many years.   Tennessee is expected to shoot at least 54% from the field, make at least 38% of their 3-points shots and potentially as high as 45%, and will score at least 81 points.  Iowa is 1-9 ATS when their opponents have shot 54% to 59% from the field and 0-6 ATS when their opponents have shot 38% to 45% from beyond the arc in games played over the last three seasons. Tennessee is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they make 54% to 59% of their shots and 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their 3-point attempts in games played over the last 2 seasons. When Tennessee has scored 81 or more points they have earned a 12-5 ATS record this season. 

SERVICE BIO

John Ryan has been handicapping baseball, football, and basketball for over 23 years. He has either won or placed in the Top-10 in dozens of contests.

John's success begins with the philosophy that goals are based and measured on the longer-term, and that over time consistency is what promotes success. Every new client is informed that there are no guarantees for profit or that any past performances can be counted on toward futures results. They provide full disclosure that gambling is dangerous, but can be a lot of fun if done in a very disciplined manner.

 The key to benefiting from the from the JRS team’s algorithm programs and database systems are to consistently invest the same amount of money on each selection. This process will ensure that the client’s bankroll their investment return will be fully optimized.

These quantitative methods eliminates any human subjectivity from all selection processes. The base computer systems are based on combinatorial algorithms and an adaptive-structure Neural Network. In summary, our systems calculate and analyze several million pieces of game data and then optimizes the data to produce the best possible forecasts. The systems also optimizes team streaks and momentum much like their technical analysis of a stock, futures, or even bit coin.

 

As seen in the financial markets for decades and personally learned from a vast investment banking career on Wall Street, the team applies a contrarian weighting to the betting consensus and team trends. For example, if a given trend in any sport is posting a 15-2 ATS, then the model may project that the trend has topped and is more likely to reverse.

 

Then, the team quantifies and compares the game matchups. The top matchups supporting the pick are then detailed in the comprehensive report that is provided for each selection. These reports will concisely state why a given team has been selected and once you have read through the report your mind will be filled with the confidence and trust to invest your hard-earned money too.  

 

JRS is a cutting-edge technology company whose sports information is unique, informative, and has produced strong predictive results. The key is committing to a full season. If you make that decision, you will not be disappointed. After all, they have been around for 22 years with a proven track record of success and treating clients with the respect that it takes hard work week after week and not with the hype of a Game of the Month or Game of the Year Lock.