John Ryan

Thunder vs Clippers 
5-Unit bet on the Thunder priced as a 3-point favorite. 

The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 44-34 SU (56%) and 48-29-1 ATS record good for 62.3% winning bets since 1996. The requirements are: Bet on road teams priced between a 3.5-point favorite and 3.5-point underdog. That team is coming off a home win by 20 or more points. The opponent has scored 105 or more points five or more of their last 6 games. If the total is priced at 230 or more points these road teams have gone 10-13 SU and 14-8-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. 

Illinois vs Kentucky 
7-unit bet on Illinois priced as a 2-point favorite. 

Illinois is favored after opening briefly at 1.5-point underdog. The market is revealing that Illinois is the better team especially among the large bettors. Only a few books had this game lined with Kentucky as a dog so most books will show Illinois opening as a favorite or at pick-em. 

The following betting algorithm has gone 27-16-1 ATS good for 63% winnings bets in the NCAA Tournament. Bet on a team seeded 3 through 16. The team is the favorite. The amount of bets placed on our team is between 35 and 49%. The differential between the seeds is no more than 3 and that opponent is the lower (better seed). 

Illinois vs. Kentucky Game Preview: March 23, 2025 – NCAA Tournament Round of 32 

Today, Sunday, March 23, 2025, the No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (22-12) take on the No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats (23-11) in a high-stakes Round of 32 matchup at 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS, live from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. With a Sweet 16 berth in Indianapolis on the line, Illinois enters as a slight 1.5-point favorite, riding the momentum of an 86-73 dismantling of Xavier in the first round. Kentucky, fresh off a 76-57 win over Troy, brings its storied pedigree and offensive firepower, but the Illini’s balanced attack, defensive tenacity, and matchup advantages position them to secure a victory by 7 or more points. Here’s a deep dive into the key matchups and factors that will propel Illinois to a decisive win in this Midwest Region showdown. 

Game Overview 

Illinois has rediscovered its groove at the perfect time, blending a top-20 offense (No. 13 in adjusted efficiency, 116.2) with a stingy defense (No. 41, 92.8 points allowed per 100 possessions). Their first-round rout of Xavier showcased their depth and versatility, with five players in double figures. Kentucky, under first-year coach Mark Pope, counters with a potent offense (No. 12 in adjusted efficiency, 118.5) averaging 85.0 points per game (No. 6 nationally), but their defense (No. 54) and recent inconsistency against top competition—highlighted by an 85-65 loss to Ohio State in December—leave them vulnerable. With an over/under of 170.5, this game promises points, but Illinois’ ability to exploit Kentucky’s weaknesses will turn it into a one-sided affair. 

Key Matchups Favoring Illinois 

Illinois’ Kasparas Jakucionis vs. Kentucky’s Guard Rotation 

Players to Watch: Kasparas Jakucionis (G, Illinois) vs. Lamont Butler (G, Kentucky) and Koby Brea (G, Kentucky) 

The Breakdown: Jakucionis, a 6’6” freshman phenom, is a matchup nightmare, averaging 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. Against Xavier, he nearly notched a triple-double (16 points, 10 assists, 9 rebounds), showcasing his ability to dictate tempo and carve up defenses. Kentucky’s backcourt, led by Butler (11.0 points, shoulder injury limiting his impact) and Brea (11.5 points, 44.1% from three), thrives on perimeter scoring but struggles defensively. The Wildcats allow 8.5 made threes per game (No. 164), and Jakucionis’ size and vision will exploit their lack of on-ball pressure (No. 228 in turnover rate forced, 15.9%). He’ll penetrate, dish to shooters, and rack up points, outpacing a Kentucky guard corps that lacks the depth to contain him. 

Illinois’ Tomislav Ivisic vs. Kentucky’s Amari Williams 

Players to Watch: Tomislav Ivisic (C, Illinois) vs. Amari Williams (C, Kentucky) 

The Breakdown: Ivisic, a 7’1” sophomore, brings a unique skill set with 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, including 20 points and 10 boards against Xavier. His ability to stretch the floor (38% from three) and protect the rim (1.2 blocks) gives Illinois an edge over Kentucky’s Williams (10.9 points, 8.6 rebounds). Williams, a 6’10” senior, is a force inside but lacks the range to counter Ivisic’s versatility. Kentucky’s No. 54 defense allows 48.2% on two-point shots (No. 132), and Ivisic will feast in pick-and-pop situations while neutralizing Williams’ post game. This mismatch will tilt the paint in Illinois’ favor, piling up points and second-chance opportunities. 

Illinois’ Perimeter Shooting vs. Kentucky’s Defensive Length 

Players to Watch: Will Riley (F, Illinois) and Ben Humrichous (F, Illinois) vs. Otega Oweh (G, Kentucky) and Andrew Carr (F, Kentucky) 

The Breakdown: Illinois’ outside shooting (9.4 made threes per game, No. 25) will exploit Kentucky’s shaky perimeter D. Riley, a freshman star, dropped 22 points (4-of-7 from three) on Xavier, averaging 12.8 points, while Humrichous chips in 7.8 points at 34.3% from deep. Kentucky’s Oweh (16.4 points over the last 10) and Carr (10.5 points) bring length, but the Wildcats’ No. 164 ranking in opponent three-point makes reflects a tendency to sag off shooters. Illinois shot 40% from beyond the arc (12-of-30) against Xavier, and with Kentucky’s 47.3% field goal defense (No. 88) vulnerable to hot streaks, the Illini’s barrage will stretch the lead to double digits. 

Analytics Favoring an Illinois Win by 7+ Points 

Offensive Efficiency and Scoring Depth 

Illinois’ No. 13 adjusted offensive efficiency (116.2) nearly matches Kentucky’s No. 12 (118.5), but the Illini’s five players averaging double figures—compared to Kentucky’s four—give them an edge in balance. They’ve scored 86+ points in 17 games (15-2 record), while Kentucky’s defense has allowed 80+ in 12 losses or near-losses, including 85 to Ohio State. 

Defensive Edge 

Illinois’ No. 41 adjusted defensive efficiency trumps Kentucky’s No. 54, holding foes to 74.6 points per game (No. 112) vs. Kentucky’s 77.3 (No. 164). The Illini’s 8-0 record when winning the turnover battle will capitalize on Kentucky’s 11.8 turnovers per game (No. 104), turning mistakes into a 10+ point swing. 

Rebounding and Second-Chance Points 

Illinois’ 34.3 rebounds per game (No. 92) and +1.7 margin outpace Kentucky’s 32.6 (No. 148) and +0.8. The Illini’s 6-4 record in their last 10 when outrebounding opponents will exploit Kentucky’s No. 132 two-point defense, adding 8-12 second-chance points to widen the gap. 

Recent Form and Matchup History 

Illinois is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 but 14-11 as 1.5+ point favorites, while Kentucky’s 7-4 ATS as underdogs doesn’t offset their 1-1 record vs. Big Ten foes this year (loss to Ohio State). The Illini’s 4-2 edge in the last six meetings since 1970, including a 1983 upset, boosts confidence. 

Prediction 

Illinois will seize control early, with Jakucionis orchestrating a relentless attack and Ivisic dominating the paint. Riley and Humrichous will torch Kentucky’s perimeter D, while the Illini’s defense forces enough turnovers to fuel a transition game Kentucky can’t match (No. 112 in points off turnovers allowed). Expect Illinois to lead by 8-10 at halftime and stretch it in the second half as Kentucky’s one-dimensional offense—relying on Oweh and Brea—falters against Illinois’ depth and physicality. The Wildcats’ injury concerns (Butler’s shoulder) and defensive lapses will prove costly, handing Illinois a comfortable win. 

Final Score Prediction: Illinois 88, Kentucky 79 
Illinois pulls away for a 9-point victory, advancing to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. The Illini’s superior balance, shooting, and defensive grit will overpower Kentucky, ending the Wildcats’ tournament run and affirming Illinois as a Midwest Region contender. 

UCONN vs Florida 
7-Unit bet on Florida priced as 9.5-point favorites. 

Given the public’s irrational exuberance in betting on UCONN, we are able to get an exceptional betting line that I do not see going up to double-digits. If it does move to 10 or even 10.5 points, I still recommend this bet. Consider betting 80% preflop and then looking to add the remaining 20% if Florida is lined at -6.5 points or immediately following a 10-0 UCONN scoring run. I do see Florida coming out of gates with the pedal to the metal and forcing UCONN tyo play in an extremely uncomfortable pace of play. So, the opportunity to get Florida at 6.5 points may not happen, but that implies the preflop bet is winning. 

Florida has been a juggernaut this season, boasting the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation (128.9 per KenPom) and averaging 85.7 points per game (No. 5 nationally). The Gators’ 26-point rout of Norfolk State showcased their ability to overwhelm opponents with pace, size, and scoring depth. UConn, meanwhile, relies on a methodical half-court game (No. 15 offense, 77.1 points per game) and a defense that’s slipped to No. 78 nationally (94.8 points allowed per 100 possessions). The Huskies’ 8-point win over Oklahoma exposed vulnerabilities—poor perimeter defense and rebounding struggles—that Florida is built to exploit. With an over/under of 151.5, expect the Gators to push the tempo and pile on points, leaving UConn in the dust. 

Key Matchups Favoring Florida 

Florida’s Backcourt Firepower vs. UConn’s Perimeter Defense 

Players to Watch: Walter Clayton Jr. (G, Florida) and Alijah Martin (G, Florida) vs. Solo Ball (G, UConn) and Hassan Diarra (G, UConn) 

The Breakdown: Florida’s guard duo of Clayton Jr. (17.7 points per game) and Martin (13.8 points) is a nightmare for defenses, combining for 6.2 threes per game at a 38.2% clip. Clayton torched Norfolk State for 23 points, including 4-of-7 from deep, while Martin added 17 points and three triples. UConn’s perimeter defense ranks No. 254, allowing 34.6% from three—one of the worst marks among tournament teams. Against Oklahoma, the Huskies surrendered open looks, with the Sooners missing 15 of 27 layups but still scoring 28 paint points. Florida’s guards won’t miss at that rate (No. 25 in three-point makes, 9.9 per game), and their speed will turn UConn turnovers (15.5% rate) into transition buckets. This mismatch will see the Gators rain threes and pull away early. 

Florida’s Frontcourt Size vs. UConn’s Rebounding Woes 

Players to Watch: Alex Condon (F, Florida) and Thomas Haugh (F, Florida) vs. Tarris Reed Jr. (F, UConn) and Samson Johnson (F, UConn) 

The Breakdown: Florida’s frontcourt, led by Condon (12.2 points, 6.8 rebounds) and Haugh (9.4 points, 5.2 rebounds), overwhelmed Norfolk State with a 42-29 rebounding edge, including 14 offensive boards. The Gators rank No. 10 in defensive efficiency (88.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) and No. 48 in rebounding margin (+4.9). UConn, conversely, struggles on the glass (No. 112 in defensive rebounding percentage, 70.8%) and was outrebounded 35-32 by Oklahoma despite the Sooners’ bottom-100 rebounding rank. Reed (12 points, 7 rebounds vs. Oklahoma) and Johnson can’t match Florida’s physicality or depth. The Gators will dominate second-chance points (13-6 record when grabbing 12+ offensive rebounds), burying UConn under a barrage of extra possessions. 

Florida’s Pace vs. UConn’s Half-Court Struggles 

Players to Watch: Will Richard (G, Florida) vs. Alex Karaban (F, UConn) 

The Breakdown: Florida thrives in transition, ranking No. 66 in adjusted tempo (68.9 possessions per game) and scoring 14.2 fast-break points per game (No. 38). Richard (11.4 points) and the Gators’ up-tempo attack will exploit UConn’s No. 80 transition defense, which faltered against Oklahoma’s pick-and-roll sets. Karaban (13.4 points, 5.1 rebounds) steadied UConn with 13 points and 7 boards in the first round, but the Huskies’ No. 135 pace (66.2 possessions) and reliance on set plays (44.7% two-point shooting) won’t keep up with Florida’s relentless speed. The Gators’ 15-1 record when scoring 80+ points signals a rout if they dictate the tempo, leaving UConn scrambling and out of rhythm. 

Analytics Favoring a Florida Blowout 

Offensive Efficiency Mismatch 

Florida’s No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency (128.9) towers over UConn’s No. 15 mark (116.2). The Gators have topped 80 points in 29 games (second-most nationally), while UConn’s No. 78 defense has allowed 75+ points in 12 losses or near-losses this season. Florida’s 53.2% two-point shooting (No. 52) and 35.8% from three (No. 88) will shred a Huskies D that’s surrendered 28+ paint points in recent games. 

Rebounding Dominance 

Florida’s +4.9 rebounding margin and No. 48 offensive rebound rate (32.1%) exploit UConn’s No. 112 defensive rebounding percentage. The Gators’ 14 offensive boards against Norfolk State turned into 18 second-chance points, a formula that will balloon the score against a Huskies team outrebounded in 8 of their 10 losses. 

Turnover Exploitation 

UConn’s 15.5% turnover rate (No. 136) plays into Florida’s hands, as the Gators force turnovers on 19.2% of possessions (No. 48) and average 14.8 points off turnovers in wins. Oklahoma forced 12 UConn miscues; Florida’s deeper, faster roster will push that number higher, converting mistakes into a 20+ point run. 

Depth and Fatigue Factor 

Florida’s eight players averaging 10+ minutes outclass UConn’s seven-man rotation, which leaned heavily on starters (four played 30+ minutes vs. Oklahoma). The Gators’ 27-2 record as moneyline favorites (-425 here) and 13-6 ATS mark as 9.5+ point favorites reflect their ability to bury lesser teams, especially a fatigued UConn squad in its ninth game in 22 days. 

Prediction 

Florida will jump on UConn from the tip, with Clayton Jr. and Martin bombing away from deep and Condon owning the paint. The Gators’ size and speed will turn Husky turnovers into a transition onslaught, while their rebounding edge ensures second-chance points pile up. UConn’s half-court offense, led by Ball and Karaban, will stall against Florida’s No. 10 defense, and the Huskies’ perimeter D will collapse under a barrage of threes. Expect Florida to lead by 12+ at halftime and stretch it to 20+ in the second half as UConn’s legs fade, ending the champs’ three-peat dreams in emphatic fashion. 

Final Score Prediction: Florida 88, UConn 70 
Florida cruises to an 18-point win, advancing to the Sweet 16 with a statement victory. The Gators’ offensive firepower, rebounding dominance, and pace will overwhelm UConn, handing them their first single-digit tournament loss since 2022 and cementing Florida as a title favorite. 

In the second round and beyond of the NCAA Tournament, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have 30 or more wins have gone 59-15 SU and 47-16-1 for 64% winning bets since 2006.