Joe D’Amico

Over in the Heat/Nuggets Game 2 matchup.

Games 513/514.

85:30 PM PST/8:30 PM EST.

There is no debating that coming into the NBA Finals, the Denver Nuggets were better-rested, hotter, and showed more consistency. But I also think there’s a lot more pressure on them to win. However, having said all that, Game 1’s are a bit unpredictable. The oddsmakers put out a total, and it flew under by more than 20-points. We all know how good both defenses play. Thus, both teams being here in the NBA finals. And, I am well aware of the fact that the Heat have played to five consecutive unders, while the Nuggets, five of their last seven games played, went under the total. But this total here today comes in a little bit low. If you look at the series-opening matchup, Miami workhorse and team leader, Jimmy Butler had a poor outing. Granted he had 13 points and seven rebounds. But for him that was way under his averages.  I expect him to come back today and play very strongly as the entire team will be a lot more competitive. You will definitely see a faster pace and a lot more scoring in this matchup. Please understand that prior to Thursday’s meeting, these two teams have played the five consecutive overs, which does include all four meetings in the regular season this year. The over is 4-1 in the Heat’s last five games played on two days rest, 10-4 in their last 14 games played on the road, and 4-1 in their last five games played versus teams with a winning record. The over is also 6-1 in the Nuggets last seven games played versus teams with a winning record. Take the over. Thank you.

Chicago Cubs.

Game 957.

2:30 PM PST/5:30 PM EST.

Both Chicago and San Diego have underachieved so far this season. Neither team possesses winning records either at home or on the road. They have split Games 1 and 2 of this series. So far this season, the Cubs have gotten the better of the Padres, taking three of five overall meetings in 2023. Marcus Stroman and Ryan Weathers are scheduled to start this game. The Chicago right-hander is 5-4 with a 2.59 ERA, while the Padres left-hander is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA. The Cubs hurler has become one of the toughest pitchers in the Majors this season. He leads the league with 12 starts and his 0.986 WHIP also tops all pitchers, while holding opposing batters to just .188 against him. And in four career starts versus the Padres, Stroman is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA. The Padres pitcher is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA on the campaign. In four career appearances, which includes three starts against Chicago, he is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA. My friends, he has gotten shelled in his last three outings. On the other hand, Stroman has pitched three stellar turns in a row, resulting in three straight wins for him. I am well aware of the fact that Chicago isn’t greatest road team. However, they have won five of their last seven meetings played at Petco Park. They are also very good against left-handers winning 15 of their last 21 games played against left-handed starters. Meanwhile, San Diego is just 2-5 their last seven games played at home and 1-4 their last five games played following a win. Take the Cubs. Thank you.

Arizona Diamondbacks.

Game 960.

1:10 PM PST/4:10 PM EST.

This is a big series, my friends. Both Atlanta and Arizona are in first place in their divisions. In the NL East, the Braves own a 3.5-game lead, while in the West, the Diamondbacks are tied with the Dodgers atop the division, both possessing a 5.5-game cushion. This matchup will have serious playoff implications down the road. So far, these two teams have split Games 1 and 2 of the series. Arizona took the series-opener, only to lose yesterday’s meeting, ending their six-game win streak. For most of the season, Atlanta has been a good away team. However, they’re starting to show cracks, dropping three of their last five as a visitor. As a matter fact, they have problems at Chase Field too, where they are just 1-4 their last five meetings with the Diamondbacks. I feel today’s contest is all about the starting pitchers. Michael Soroka, and Zac Gallen are starting here. The Atlanta right-hander is making just his second appearance of the campaign. And going back a bit, if you recall, he has not pitched since 2020, prior to this season. In his first start on May 29, he got lit up by one of the worst teams in baseball, Oakland, allowing four earned runs in just six innings pitched. On the other hand, the Arizona, right-hander has been one of the most solid pitchers in the NL this season. He is 7-2 with a 2.72 ERA this season. And over his career, in two starts against the Braves, he is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. The ‘Zona offense has been a bit more consistent of late. And I look for them to bounce back here today. They are 6-1 their last seven games played at home, 13-3 their last 16 games played versus right-handed starters, and 15-7 their last 22 games played versus teams with a winning record. On the other hand, Atlanta is just 3-7 their last 10 games played on the road, 1-4 their last five games played versus the National League West, and 3-8 their last 11 games played versus teams with a winning record. Take the Diamondbacks. Thank you.

Texas Rangers.

Game 914.

5:05 PM PST/8:05 PM EST.

Texas has won three in a row and eight of their last 10 to further their cushion in the American League West to 3.5-games. Meanwhile, St. Louis, which was a preseason favorite to take their division, dwells in the NL Central cellar, 7.5-games back in the division, at 25-35. These two teams haven’t met in a while, but it would be an understatement to say the Rangers have dominated the Cardinals, taking eight of their last nine meetings in this Interleague matchup. Wainwright and Perez are scheduled starters today. The St. Louis right-hander, although is 2-1 with a 6.15 ERA, has yet to complete six innings this season. The Texas left-hander is stirring up a lot of buzz, going 6-1, with a 4.43 ERA thus far. Whether it be at the plate or on the mound, Texas significantly outclasses St. Louis. They average nearly 2 more runs per game offensively, while they’re pitching staff yields nearly one full run less per game. St. Louis is just 1-9 their last 10 games played versus the A.L. West and 0-4 their last four games played on the road. Texas is 5-1 their last six Interleague games played and 4-0 their last four games played versus right-handed starters. Take the Rangers. Thank you.

Houston Astros.

Game 905.

4:05 PM PST/7:05 PM EST.

The Toronto Blue Jays may have won four straight outings, but today they must face a pitching staff leading the Majors, with a Team ERA of 3.22. Bielak and Manoah are scheduled starters here today. There is no question that the Astros right-hander has been more consistent than the Blue Jays right-hander. As a matter fact, Toronto has lost Manoah’s last six turns. The Blue Jays are just 2-5 their last seven games played at home. Meanwhile, the Astros are 16-5 their last 21 games played versus the American League East, 37-16 their last 53 games played on the road, 11-5 their last 16 games played versus right-handed starters, and 18-6 their last 24 games played overall. Take Houston. Thank you.

Milwaukee Brewers.

Game 901.

4:10 PM PST/7:10 PM EST.

Milwaukee has taken the first three games of this series with authority, to continue their domination of Cincinnati. Going back a bit, they have taken eight of their last nine meetings against their division rival and 21 of their last 28 overall matchups. Winning three in a row and five of their last seven, the Brewers are striding. Meanwhile, the Reds are riding a four-game slide. Julio Teheran will make his third start of the campaign, while Andrew Abbott will make his Major League debut today. The Milwaukee right-hander has shown promise. The Cincinnati left-hander is in way over his head here. He faces a team that has won four of their last five games played versus division opponents, four of their last five games played on the road, eight of their last 11 games played versus teams with a losing record, and five of their last seven games played versus right-handed starters. Take the Brewers. Thank you.