Jim Feist

Sunday’s NFC North matchup between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium sets up as a competitive divisional battle. Chicago enters at 6-3, riding momentum after back-to-back wins over the Bengals and Giants. Quarterback Caleb Williams has been the spark for the offense, averaging over 260 passing yards per game while adding mobility that stresses defenses. Wide receiver Rome Odunze has emerged as a reliable big-play threat, and the Bears’ offense ranks 7th in the NFL in scoring at 26.6 points per game. While Chicago’s defense has been shaky, allowing 27.4 points per game (fifth-worst in the league), their ability to generate turnovers has kept them competitive in tight contests.

Minnesota, meanwhile, sits at 4-5, coming off a 27-19 loss to Baltimore. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has shown flashes of promise but remains inconsistent, throwing two interceptions last week. The Vikings’ offense ranks just 24th in total yards per game (299.9) and has struggled to sustain drives. While they boast playmakers like Justin Jefferson, the offensive line has been inconsistent, and their defense, though solid overall, has not been dominant enough to mask offensive shortcomings.

While the Vikings have home-field advantage, they’ve covered the spread just once at home this season, and their inconsistency on offense makes them vulnerable. Chicago, on the other hand, has covered in five of nine games and has shown resilience in close contests. With Williams’ dynamic playmaking and the Bears’ offensive momentum, they are well-positioned to stay inside the number and potentially steal a road win.

Jim's Play: 461. Bears 

Sunday’s NFC North showdown between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium is primed for points. Chicago enters at 6-3, riding momentum after back-to-back wins over the Bengals and Giants. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has been the spark, averaging over 260 passing yards per game while adding mobility that stresses defenses. The Bears’ offense ranks 7th in the NFL in scoring (26.6 points per game), and wide receiver Rome Odunze has emerged as a reliable big-play threat. However, Chicago’s defense has been a liability, ranking 28th in scoring defense and allowing 27.4 points per game, which has consistently pushed their contests into high-scoring territory.

Minnesota, meanwhile, sits at 4-5, looking to rebound after a 27-19 loss to Baltimore. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has shown flashes of promise, throwing for 248 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens, but turnovers remain an issue. The Vikings’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking 22nd in scoring, yet with playmakers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, they have the ability to stretch defenses vertically. At home, Minnesota has struggled to close games, but their offensive potential combined with Chicago’s defensive weaknesses sets up a favorable scoring environment.

The Bears’ offensive surge under Williams, paired with their defensive struggles, makes the over the stronger play. Chicago has hit overs in three of its last four games, while Minnesota’s passing attack is well-positioned to exploit the Bears’ secondary. With both teams fighting for divisional positioning and capable of trading scores, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Jim's Play: 461. Bears/Vikings OVER

The Week 11 NFC West clash between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at SoFi Stadium sets up as a high-scoring affair, with the angle favoring the game to go over the total of 48.5 points.

Both teams enter at 7-2, riding four-game winning streaks and battling for first place in the division. Seattle’s offense has been rolling behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who completed 86% of his passes over the last two weeks and led the Seahawks to a 44-22 win over Arizona in Week 10. Running back Zach Charbonnet continues to provide balance, averaging nearly six yards per carry, while Seattle’s receiving corps has been efficient in creating explosive plays. The Seahawks rank top-10 in scoring offense, and their ability to stretch the field vertically has kept defenses off balance.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been equally impressive. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been red-hot, throwing 13 touchdowns with no interceptions over his last three games. Los Angeles is averaging over 30 points per game during their current win streak, with wideouts Davonta Adams and Puka Nacua consistently producing chunk plays. Defensively, the Rams have talent, but they’ve been vulnerable against strong passing attacks, allowing opponents to move the ball through the air.

While both defenses are capable of generating pressure, the offensive firepower on both sides makes the over the stronger play. Seattle has hit overs in three of its last four games, while the Rams have cleared the total in back-to-back contests. With two quarterbacks in rhythm, explosive playmakers on both rosters, and playoff implications raising the stakes, this matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout.

Jim's Play: 467. Seahawks /Rams OVER 

The Week 11 AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos on Sunday, November 16, 2025, at Empower Field at Mile High sets up as a defensive battle. Kansas City enters at 5-4, fighting to stay in the division race after a disappointing loss to Buffalo before their bye. While Patrick Mahomes has historically dominated Denver, the Chiefs’ offense has been inconsistent this season, averaging just 22.7 points per game and struggling to find explosive plays without a true deep-threat receiver. Their defense, however, has been the strength of the team, ranking top-10 in scoring defense and holding opponents under 20 points in five of their last seven contests. Kansas City’s ability to generate pressure and force turnovers has kept them competitive even when the offense stalls.

Denver, meanwhile, comes in at 8-2, riding a seven-game winning streak and boasting a perfect 5-0 home record. Quarterback Bo Nix has managed games efficiently, but the Broncos’ success has been built on their defense, which ranks top-five in points allowed at just 18.2 per game. Denver has been particularly dominant at home, where crowd noise and altitude have helped them limit opponents’ offensive rhythm. Their secondary has been opportunistic, and their pass rush has consistently disrupted opposing quarterbacks.

Both teams have offensive talent, the matchup trends toward a lower-scoring affair. The Chiefs’ offensive struggles combined with Denver’s defensive dominance at home suggest long drives, fewer explosive plays, and a game decided by field position. Historically, meetings between these two teams in Denver have leaned toward defensive battles, and with playoff implications raising intensity, both defenses should dictate the pace.

Jim's Play: 473. Chiefs/Broncos UNDER 

Sunday’s NFC West clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium sets up as a high-scoring affair. San Francisco enters at 6-4, looking to rebound after a tough divisional loss to the Rams. Quarterback Brock Purdy is expected back from a toe injury, and his return should stabilize the 49ers’ passing attack, which ranks top-5 in the NFL in yards per game. Christian McCaffrey remains one of the league’s most versatile threats. While the offense has been potent, San Francisco’s defense has shown cracks, giving up 42 points to Los Angeles last week and ranking middle of the pack in scoring defense.

Arizona, meanwhile, comes in at 3-6, but the Cardinals have been competitive at home and are coming off a 44-22 loss to Seattle where their offense still managed over 350 total yards. The Cardinals’ defense, however, has been a liability, ranking bottom-10 in points allowed and struggling to contain explosive passing games. Against a 49ers offense loaded with playmakers, Arizona will likely need to trade scores to stay competitive.

San Francisco has cleared the total in three of its last four games, while Arizona’s defensive issues have consistently pushed their contests higher-scoring. Expect fireworks in Glendale. With Brock Purdy returning to lead San Francisco’s explosive offense, this divisional matchup is primed to go over the total.

Jim's Play: 469. Niners/Cardinals OVER

Sunday’s AFC North rivalry between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium sets up as a tight divisional battle. Cincinnati enters at 3-6, but this game has been labeled a “must-win” by star wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who emphasized the importance of sweeping the season series against Pittsburgh after the Bengals’ 33-31 victory back on October 16. Quarterback Joe Flacco has provided veteran stability, throwing for seven touchdowns in that earlier meeting, and his chemistry with Chase and Tee Higgins gives Cincinnati the ability to stretch defenses vertically. While QB Joe Burrows is close to returning, I don't think it will be this week. The Bengals’ defense has been among the worst statistically, allowing over 426 yards per game, their offense has shown enough explosiveness to keep them competitive in shootouts.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, sits at 5-4, clinging to playoff positioning after a 25-10 loss to the Chargers last week. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been efficient but not spectacular, and the Steelers’ offense ranks just 16th in scoring at 23.6 points per game. Defensively, Pittsburgh has been inconsistent, ranking 20th in points allowed, and their secondary has struggled against elite receivers. Facing Chase and Higgins again poses a major challenge, especially given how Cincinnati attacked them successfully in the first matchup.

The Steelers’ home-field advantage is significant, the Bengals’ offensive firepower and urgency in a must-win divisional spot suggest they can stay inside the number. Cincinnati has already proven they can beat Pittsburgh head-to-head this season, and Flacco’s veteran presence combined with Chase’s big-play ability makes them a dangerous underdog.  Expect Cincinnati to rise to the occasion in this rivalry clash. The Bengals’ offensive weapons and motivation to sweep the Steelers give them the edge to cover the spread in a hard-fought AFC North showdown.

Jim's Play: 457. Bengals 

Sunday’s Week 11 matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium sets up as a tight contest. Both teams enter at 6-3, coming off disappointing losses that have raised questions about consistency. Buffalo fell 13-10 to Miami, struggling to generate offense despite Josh Allen’s strong arm and mobility. The Bills’ defense remains stout, ranking top-10 in points allowed, but injuries in the secondary have left them vulnerable to big plays. At home, Buffalo has been dominant against NFC opponents, yet their offense has sputtered in recent weeks, averaging just 19 points per game over their last three contests.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, dropped a 28-23 decision to New England, but the Buccaneers have been one of the league’s most resilient road teams, posting a 4-1 record away from home in 2025. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has provided steady leadership. The Buccaneers’ defense has been opportunistic, ranking top-5 in takeaways, and their ability to pressure quarterbacks could disrupt Buffalo’s offensive rhythm. Tampa Bay’s balanced attack and knack for keeping games close make them a dangerous underdog in this spot.

While the Bills’ home-field advantage is significant, Tampa Bay’s road success and defensive playmaking suggest they can stay inside the number. The Buccaneers have covered in three of their last four road games, and their offensive weapons match up well against Buffalo’s banged-up secondary. Expect Tampa Bay to lean on Mayfield’s poise, and a turnover-hungry defense to keep this contest close. The Buccaneers are the value side to cover the spread against Buffalo in a pivotal Week 11 showdown.

Jim's Play: 455. Buccaneers 

Sunday’s AFC North matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field is shaping up as a defensive battle, with the weather conditions and both teams’ tendencies pointing toward the game staying under the total of 39.5 points.

The Ravens enter at 4-5, riding a three-game winning streak after a 27-19 victory over Minnesota. Lamar Jackson has been steady but not explosive, throwing for 176 yards last week while adding 36 on the ground. Derrick Henry continues to provide balance in the run game, but Baltimore’s offense has leaned on efficiency rather than fireworks. Defensively, the Ravens have improved in recent weeks, holding opponents under 20 points in back-to-back contests, and their ability to pressure quarterbacks should be a key factor against Cleveland.

The Browns, at 2-7, remain in rebuilding mode. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel showed flashes against the Jets with two touchdown passes, but Cleveland’s offense ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring and total yards. Running back Quinshon Judkins has been a bright spot, yet the offensive line has struggled to open consistent lanes. Defensively, however, the Browns remain formidable, ranking second overall in total defense and top-five against the pass. Their ability to slow down Jackson’s aerial attack and force Baltimore into long drives makes this matchup particularly favorable for a low-scoring outcome.

Weather will play a role as well. Cleveland’s forecast for Sunday calls for mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid-40s. But it's the wind that is most concern with winds up to 35 MPG.  And if you have ever played football you know what havoc the winds can to do a game from passing to kicking and helping defenses. With both teams already leaning on the run and short passing, the wind and cool temperatures should further suppress scoring opportunities.

While the Ravens’ recent surge makes them the side to back, the combination of Cleveland’s defensive strength, Baltimore’s methodical offensive approach, and the weather forecast all point toward a grind-it-out divisional contest.

Jim's Play:  471. Ravens/Browns UNDER (NFL Total of the Year)

The Detroit Pistons enter Monday night’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers as heavy favorites, and all signs point to them continuing their dominant run. The Pistons have surged to the top of the Eastern Conference with an 11-2 record, riding a nine-game winning streak that has showcased both depth and resilience. Even with star guard Cade Cunningham missing time, Detroit has leaned on emerging contributors like Daniss Jenkins, who has averaged over 20 points and 7 assists in recent games. The Pistons’ rebounding dominance, led by Jalen Duren’s 12 boards per game, has given them control of the paint, while their balanced scoring attack has kept defenses guessing. At home, Detroit has been nearly unbeatable, winning six straight in Little Caesars Arena and covering spreads consistently. 

Indiana, on the other hand, has endured a brutal start to the season at 1-12, dropping seven straight contests. Despite strong individual efforts from Pascal Siakam, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding, and Andrew Nembhard, who has provided a spark since returning from injury, the Pacers have struggled to generate consistent offense. Their defense has been porous, allowing opponents to shoot well over 50% in recent outings, and they’ve been unable to close out games, going winless in contests decided by double digits.

Given the Pistons’ momentum, depth, and home-court advantage, this is a spot where the superior team should assert itself early and maintain control throughout. Expect Detroit to extend its winning streak and handle business at home. Play the Pistons to win and cover the spread on Monday night.

Jim's Play : 548. Pistons