Jim Feist

Kansas State’s case to cover here in the Big 12 Conference Tourney 1st round starts with the number itself. BYU opening at 10.5 points on the neutral floor in Kansas City is significant because it’s rather large for a conference tournament game between two Big 12 teams that know each other well. While BYU is the superior squad (21-10 overall, 9-9 Big 12) Kansas State doesn’t need to pull the outright upset to hit the spread. The Wildcats simply need to keep this one close into the closing minutes as double-digit lines can provide value in tournament play when you’re playing the live underdog.

BYU also hasn’t won by nearly this margin since these two teams already met earlier in the season. Kansas State lost the first meeting 83-73 in Manhattan, which is huge because that final score is almost exactly where the number sits this time around. Point being, Kansas State was able to muster up enough offense to show it can hang around this game if it figures out ways to improve in a few key areas,  namely rebounding and late-game execution. When the same two teams play twice in quick succession like this, the team with the newfound knowledge of its opponent usually has the underdog advantage.

Lastly, Kansas State clearly has motivation after finishing the regular season with a record that slots it in as the 15 seed. Meanwhile, BYU does not have to worry about qualifying for the NCAA Tournament and will approach Saturday with the mentality of protecting its seed line or maybe improving a little bit if it routs Kansas State. This matters because as a tournament opener, BYU will likely play to simply win while Kansas State will pour its heart out to keep its season alive. If Kansas ever relaxes, the Wildcats have more opportunity to keep their deficit within 10.5 points.

Perhaps Kansas State’s best angle for covering the spread is the game volatility BYU brings. The Cougars like to push the pace and put up points, and when you have games projecting anywhere from 165.5 to 166.5 points, big underdogs become attractive simply because more possessions means more opportunity for late-game swings and a cover. Kansas State will have opportunities to win if it gets solid scoring from its star players and doesn’t get utterly blown out on the boards.  Take the points with K State.

Jim's Play: 605. Kansas State  (Big 12 Conf 1st Round)

ACC 1st Round action tonight has Virginia Tech taking on Wake Forest.  Virginia Tech opened as a 2.5-point favorite on the neutral floor in Charlotte with a total of 136. As of Tuesday night, Virginia Tech sits at 19-12 on the season while Wake Forest is 16-15.

The first game factor that jumps out at me is the regular-season matchup. Virginia Tech dominated Wake Forest 82-63 on Feb. 21. This means the Hokies have already demonstrated that they can keep this team in check defensively and can create separation on offense. If one team already won the regular-season matchup by 19 points, laying a small number becomes far easier to recommend for the rematch.

Virginia Tech also has the edge when it comes to motivation. Several sites have mentioned that Virginia Tech is currently sitting on the NCAA tournament bubble going into the ACC tournament. Therefore, this game essentially becomes a must-win situation for the Hokies. Motivation is important in conference tournament games and the Hokies simply have more to play for than Wake Forest. Also, since Virginia Tech finished with a better record than Wake Forest, you have to believe the fans and players will want to beat them more.

The third reason I like Virginia Tech at a small number has nothing to do with Wake Forest. Instead, Virginia Tech simply doesn’t have any injury concerns that I am aware of. Most pregame reports that cover player injuries mention Virginia Tech forward Amani Hansberry was listed as day-to-day with a leg injury. Hansberry still played in the game so this obviously was not a huge concern for the Hokies. With that being said, you have to think Virginia Tech would have been installed as an underdog had they been without Hansberry or another key player for an extended period of time. Yet here we are with Virginia Tech as a favorite which tells me the oddsmakers view Virginia Tech as the better team regardless.

Putting this all together, I view Virginia Tech as the bet in this game and one that it desperately needs to win. While laying even is never easy, the small number gives Virginia Tech every opportunity to cover. Remember Virginia Tech already showed it can prevent Wake Forest from scoring efficiently and can create offensive separation during their first matchup. Virginia Tech should be able to replicate those outcomes on Tuesday and cover the number by winning by more than one possession.

Jim's Play: 614. Virginia Tech (ACC Conf 1st Round) 

Northwestern has a lot of justification to get covered here as this may be one of the better matchup situations the Wildcats can draw in the Big Ten tournament. Not only did they already take care of business against Penn State 94-73 back on Jan. 29, but Northwestern showed they can run their offense comfortably against this defense.  As soon as one team wins by 21, laying 6 to 6.5 points in the rematch automatically becomes much easier to justify.

Handicapping the records also helps Northwestern’s cause. Both teams suck, yes, but Penn State is even worse than Northwestern. They enter the tournament at 12-19 overall and 3-17 in conference play. Northwestern is 13-18 and 5-15. 

Nick Martinelli and the points Northwestern gets from him is a big factor in the handicap as well. Per Northwestern’s tournament preview, Martinelli broke the school’s single-season scoring record and led the Big Ten in scoring. That allows Northwestern to have the best go-to scorer in this matchup and when playing in conference tournament settings, having the best closer on the floor is huge when all you have to do is win by a couple possessions to cover.

Chicago and the United Center are also Northwestern territory. Yes, this is not the same as playing in front of your home crowd, but it is still a slight edge for a Northwestern team that beat Penn State by 21 back in January.

I just believe Northwestern is the more steady team, has the better scorer, and has already proved they can create real separation against Penn State. Those factors make covering the number in this spot likely.

Jim's Play: Northwestern  (Big 10 1st Round)

I'm going to the Extra board for my Conference Tourney Game of the Year here on Tuesday as Mercyhurst and Long Island meet in the Northeast conference Championship game.  Mercyhurst has is the side I'm looking at here plus the points. The number isn’t astronomical yet at +5.5 to +6.5, and the Lakers already showed they could defeat LIU outright. They defeated the Sharks 91-83 in their last meeting on February 21, so we’re not looking at a situation where LIU mauled Mercyhurst last time out.

In fact, that game illustrated how Mercyhurst can win again. The Lakers forced LIU into turnovers and capitalized on their opponent’s mistakes by scoring 20 points on 13 LIU turnovers during the upset. When playing in a spread, turnovers like those matter because forcing extra possessions is one of the easiest ways for an underdog to keep the score close enough to the line to win without needing an outright victory.

There’s even motivation to consider on Mercyhurst’s side. LIU has already clinched the NEC’s spot in the NCAA tournament thanks to Mercyhurst’s ineligibility while transitioning to Division I, so there isn’t as much fight-to-the-death incentive on the line for the Sharks in this game. LIU will certainly try to win, but part of the motivation is gone and that can allow an underdog to stick around longer than normal.

LIU may be the better team too, but these two have been competitive recently. LIU’s overall record of 23-10 is better than Mercyhurst’s at 17-16, but their all-time series record is tied at 2-2 in the last two seasons. LIU won both of their meetings at home, but Mercyhurst won both games on its home floor as well. Even if LIU is the better team, these two match up closely and haven’t covered much of a gap in the head-to-head over their last few meetings.

LIU is more likely to win this game at home, but Mercyhurst has a definite profile to play this spread based on having already beaten this team once, creating turnover-based offense in that game, and getting enough points to work with while LIU’s NCAA tournament destiny has already been decided.

Jim's Play: 551. Mercyhurst (Northeast Conf Tourney Game of the Year)

I look for the Philadelphia 76ers to get me the win and cover here on Tuesday because Memphis comes in short-handed and playing poorly. Memphis has dropped four in a row and news articles from Monday night’s loss at Brooklyn said Memphis was injury depleted and short on rotation players.

The game also being in Philadelphia helps the Sixers. The game takes place in Philadelphia on Tuesday, March 10 but Memphis is playing it following Monday’s road game in Brooklyn so Memphis not only is short-handed but playing a tough back-to-back.

Philadelphia also can still score with its injuries, at least at home. On March 5, they defeated Utah 106-102 behind 25 points from Tyrese Maxey and good games from Quentin Grimes and Jabari Walker. If Philly can manufacture enough points when the matchup is right, they can do it again here.

Of course, the big caution is that Philadelphia is also missing players. Tyrese Maxey was listed Sunday as expected to miss Monday and Tuesday with a sprained finger and when I looked at the official NBA injury reports Monday night, neither team had turned in its final injury report.

But again, because of the matchup, Philadelphia covering really isn’t about them being completely healthy. Memphis is on a four-game skid, clearly thinner than Philly at the moment, and has to play this game with no rest while the market is only giving them a moderate spread rather than an enormous number. If the Grizzlies are as short-handed as they were on Monday, the Sixers should have a good chance to cover at home.

Jim's Play: 558. 76ers  

559. WASHINGTON WIZARDS  at  560. MIAMI HEAT

Washington enters with one of the league’s worst defensive ratings and continues to get overwhelmed by efficient offenses. Miami at home is a different animal, top-tier defensive pressure, strong shooting, and a major edge in turnover creation. The Wizards’ inability to defend the perimeter makes this a blowout-leaning matchup.

Jim's FREE Play: 560. Miami Heat -15 (4:40 PT / 7:40 ET)