Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Texas Tech -1.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 7-1 in their last eight games overall with wins over Duke and BYU.  Their lone loss came on the road at Houston in a 69-65 defeat as 7.5-point dogs.  Houston is blowing the doors off everyone else right now.

After a soft non-conference schedule, the Baylor Bears have been exposed in Big 12 play.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming over Oklahoma State.

The Bears weren't even competitive in home losses to Iowa State by 10 and Houston by 22, as well as a road loss to Kansas by 18.  They don't play defense and they don't rebound, which will be a big problem here against Texas Tech.

Baylor ranks 96th in adjusted defense and 307th in offensive rebound rate on defense.  The Bears allow opponents to grab 34.1% of their own misses.  Texas Tech is 34th in adjusted defense and 81st in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 34.2% of their own misses.  The Red Raiders will dominate on the glass which will be the difference in this game.  Bet Texas Tech Tuesday.

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15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +11.5

Seton Hall is 14-4 SU & 11-7 ATS this season as one of the most improved teams in the Big East.  But this is a 'buy low' spot on the Pirates after a 77-66 upset home loss to Butler as 6.5-point favorites.  They shot 35.9% overall and 17.6% from 3-point range.

I think the Pirates let their 69-64 loss to UConn the game prior beat them twice.  They shot just 6.3% from 3-point range against UConn.  It's safe to say the Pirates are due some positive shooting regression after those two performances.

It's time to 'sell high' on St. John's.  The Red Storm are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a big 86-79 road win at Villanova.  This looks like the letdown spot for the Red Storm.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this rivalry.  In fact, the Pirates have actually gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to St. John's.  They will take this game to the wire tonight and get the cover.  Bet Seton Hall Tuesday.

20* Vanderbilt/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas ML -120

Arkansas is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They beat Louisville 89-80 as 1.5-point home dogs and Tennessee 86-75 as 1.5-point home dogs to highlight their best home wins.  They can certainly handle Vanderbilt tonight.

The Commodores have been exposed after jumping out to a 16-0 start this season against a soft schedule.  They have lost their last two games, getting blown out 80-64 as 4.5-point favorites at Texas and falling 98-94 at home to Florida.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 7 days and I question how much they have left in the tank tonight.  Bet Arkansas on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +18.5

Iowa ranks 344th in adjusted tempo and 343rd in average length of offensive possession.  Playing at a snail's pace allows them to be competitive with good teams, but also to allow bad teams to be competitive with them.  It's a profile that has a team like Iowa always playing to their level of competition.

Rutgers plays a similar style ranking 292nd in adjusted tempo and 209th in average length of offensive possession. The Scarlet Knights are in no hurry, either, so this game won't see very many possessions at all.  That's going to make it tough for Iowa to get margin and win this game by 19 points or more, which is what it will take to beat us.

The Scarlet Knights are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games and playing their best basketball of the season.  They upset both Northwestern and Oregon, only lost by 7 at home to Ohio State as 9.5-point dogs and by 9 at Wisconsin as 15.5-point dogs.

The Hawkeyes are in a tough spot here playing in their 3rd different city in 7 days.  After coming up short at Purdue 79-72, they came back and upset Indiana 74-57 on the road.  That's a struggling Hoosiers team that the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect for beating handily.  It sets them up for a letdown spot here at home.  Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida State/Miami OVER 165.5

Miami really profiles as an OVER team ranking 87th in adjusted tempo, 50th in average length of offensive possession and 48th in adjusted offense.  Miami is 10-1 OVER in all home games this season scoring 95.2 points per game at home.

The Hurricanes will likely hang 100 on the Florida State Seminoles tonight.  The Seminoles rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 10th in average length of offensive possession, so they really want to get up and down.  They rank 96th in adjusted offense and 164th in adjusted defense, which is really poor for a Power 4 team.  They recently allowed 91 points to Duke, 113 to NC State and 94 to Syracuse in three of their last four games which all saw 178 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Kent State OVER 167

Miami Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Redhawks are averaging 93.9 points per game this season.  They rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 75th in adjusted offense.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season and they have combined for 159 or more points with their opponents in eight of their last nine games overall.

Kent State plays even faster, ranking 21st in adjusted tempo, 104th in adjusted offense and just 245th in adjusted defense.  The Golden Flashes really profile as an OVER team.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for at least 168 points in all four games.  

Kent State is 12-4 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER in home games.  The Golden Flashes are scoring 90.2 points per game and I could see both teams getting into the 90's tonight.  This total of 167 is actually pretty short for a game involving these two teams given their profiles.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Akron/Buffalo OVER 168.5

Akron is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Zips rank 33rd in adjusted tempo, 23rd in average length of offensive possession, 16th in adjusted offense and 2nd in effective FG percentage.  The Zips are averaging 93.6 points per game this season despite not playing a single OT game.  They rank just 217th in adjusted defense.

Buffalo is a great offensive team ranking 94th in adjusted offense but even worse than Akron defensively ranking 303rd in adjusted defense.  The Bulls rank 29th in effective FG percentage on offense and 269th on defense.  They scoring 81.2 points per game.

Buffalo is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall going for 168 or more combined points three times.  Akron is 10-6 OVER in all games this season and coming off 193 combined points in a 104-89 win over Western Michigan.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Heat/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 238

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They are fully healthy right now with the exception of Tyler Herro, and they have actually been better offensively without him as they seem to play more together as a team with better ball movement.

The Heat are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall combining for 242 points with the Thunder, 248 with the Suns and 247 with the Warriors in three of their last four games.  They have played five straight elite defensive teams, and now they take a step down in class here against the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings rank 27th in defensive rating and they aren't getting any better defensively any time soon.  But they have gotten much better offensively with the return of LaVine and Sabonis among others.  The Kings have scored at least 110 points during their 4-1 stretch in their last five games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Lakers/Nuggets NBC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 228

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight in this game between the Lakers and Nuggets.  The Nuggets are 1st in offensive rating while the Lakers are 9th.  The Nuggets are 23rd in defensive rating while the Lakers are 25th.  Denver is 27-16 OVER in all games this season while Los Angeles is 24-17 OVER in all games.

Three of the last four meetings between the Lakers and Nuggets have seen 228 or more combined points.  The Lakers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 236 or more combined points in four of those five, and 248 or more in three of them.  The Nuggets are 3-1 OVER in their last four games with 227 or more combined points in three of the four.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis/Duquesne OVER 165

St. Louis is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Billikens rank 31st in adjusted tempo and 7th in average length of offensive possession.  They are 40th in adjusted offense including 3rd in effective FG percentage.  They are scoring 91.7 points per game this season and haven't played a single OT game.

Duquesne is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Dukes rank 41st in adjusted tempo, 127th in adjusted offense and 162nd in adjusted defense.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season and 7-2 OVER at home.  They are scoring 84.4 points per game and allowing 77.7 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.