Jack Jones

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: St. Louis Cardinals -137 

The Cardinals certainly aren’t choking the division away this year like they did last September.  They just swept the Cubs in four games on the road.  But they can’t afford to take a breather as they are still just three games ahead of the Brewers for the NL Central title. 

Now the Cardinals head to Arizona for a three-game series.  They face a Diamondbacks team that is six games back with six to go in the wild card, so they have nothing to play for.  I don’t expect the Diamondbacks and Alex Young to offer up much resistance tonight because of it. 

Adam Wainwright has turned back the clock here down the stretch and come up clutch for the Cardinals.  He is 4-0 with a 0.33 ERA in his last four starts, allowing just one earned run in 27 innings pitched during this stretch.  Wainwright is also 9-4 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.198 WHIP in 13 career starts against Arizona. 

The Cardinals are 12-2 in Wainwright’s last 14 starts, including 6-1 in his last seven road starts.  St. Louis is 45-22 in its last 67 games overall.  Arizona is 1-5 in Young’s last six home starts.  The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Young’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cardinals Monday.

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Get ready to WATCH & WIN with Jack's 20* Bears/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer for just $39.95! He has the winning side in this game NAILED tonight behind a SWEET 89% System All-Time in his analysis!

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+103) 

The Washington Nationals are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers in the wild card.  It appears whoever finishes with a better record will get home-field advantage for the play-in game.  So they still have a ton to play for and should handle their business at home against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. 

The Phillies are now six games back in the wild card with eight to go.  They are basically done for and have nothing to play for.  Zach Eflin is 9-12 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 26 starts this season for the Phillies.  I expect the Nationals to light him up. 

Pat Corbin is 13-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.930 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Corbin is also 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in eight career starts against the Phillies. 

Eflin is 2-13 against the money line vs. NL teams that score 4.5 arm ore runs per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  HIs teams are losing by 3.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Phillies are 1-6 in Eflin’s last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 3-13 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record overall.  The Nationals are 9-1 in Corbin’s last 10 home starts.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Monday. 

20* Bears/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago -3.5 

Everyone in the media is dogging on Mitchell Trubisky and this Chicago offense.  But keep in mind the Bears have played two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Packers and Broncos.  I think this is Trubisky’s coming out party on Monday Night Football against what has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Washington Redskins. 

The Redskins are allowing a whopping 31.5 points per game, 455.0 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play through their first two games against the Eagles and Cowboys.  And their offense has struggled with 326.5 yards per game, so they are getting outgained by roughly 129 yards per game on the season. 

The Bears had the best defense in the NFL last season and they have picked up right where they left off.  They are giving up just 12.0 points per game, 292.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through two games.  With a defense this good, the Bears are going to be in almost every game they play.  The offense just has to be average or better for this team to be elite. 

I think there’s some line value here based off last week’s line against the Cowboys.  The Redskins were 6.5-point home dogs to the Cowboys, but they are only 3.5-point home dogs to the Bears this week.  I have the Cowboys and Bears power rated similarly, so we are basically getting 3 points of value bases off that fact alone. 

The Bears have some momentum coming into this game as well.  They were starting an 0-2 start straight in the face last week.  They led 13-6 but gave up a TD and a 2-point conversion to the Broncos with only 30 seconds remaining to trail.  Trubisky managed to drive the field in 30 seconds and set up the game-winning 53-yard field goal from Eddy Pineiro as time expired.  Kicking has been a huge problem for the Bears, and now they have confidence that they’ve found their man.  That drive also gives Trubisky some confidence coming into this week as well. 

Jay Gruden is 1-8 ATS on Monday Night Football as the coach of the Redskins.  They are losing by 11.2 points per game in this spot.  The Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 MNF games.  The Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Bears Monday.