Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Oakland A's -125

The Athletics have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Texas Rangers.  They have also been the better offensive team this season scoring 4.3 runs per game compared to just 3.1 runs per game for the Rangers, which has them sitting in 29th in all of baseball.

Osvaldo Bido has been a pleasant surprise for the A's going 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA in four starts this season.  He also went 5-3 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts and seven relief appearances last season for the A's.

Patrick Corbin had a 5.20 ERA or worse in four consecutive seasons in Washington while making at least 31 starts in all four seasons.  The Texas Rangers took a shot on him this season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.  He has allowed 4 earned runs and 13 base runners in 9 1/3 innings with just 6 K's in two starts thus far.  Bet the A's Tuesday.

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15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Lakers OVER 210

The Timberwolves and Lakers were well on their way to cashing the OVER for us in Game 1.  All they needed was 45-plus points in the 4th quarter.  Instead, they settled for just 40 combined points in the 4th largely due to backups playing the final stretch in what was a blowout in Minnesota's favor.  That won't happen again.

The Lakers are due some positive shooting regression in Game 2 after making just 33-of-83 (40%) from the field in Game 1.  The Timberwolves won't shoot as well from 3 again, but I do expect more free throws after these teams combined for just 26 attempts in Game 1.  It is likely to be more competitive if it's not a Lakers' blowout and more free throws could come into play in the end.

Either way, this total has been adjusted down from 217 on the opener to 210 as of this writing, and that's too big of an adjustment.  The fact that these teams combined for 212 points in Game 1 with a 40-point 4th quarter alone shows there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Guardians OVER 8

The New York Yankees rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.7 runs per game this season.  The Cleveland Guardians are scoring 4.2 runs per game and should hang a big number on New York tonight.  The OVER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings including 10 combined runs in Game 1 of this series.

Will Warren is 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in four starts for the Yankees this season, allowing 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 15 2/3 innings.  Tanner Bibee has allowed 13 earned runs and 7 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Brewers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The San Francisco Giants have quietly been one of the best OVER teams in baseball.  They have gone 15-8 OVER in all games while scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.  The Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 5.0 runs per game as well.  Temps will be in the 60's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight to aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket.

Jose Quintana can't keep up this pace after two solid starts against the Tigers and Diamondbacks.  The 36-year-old is in his 13th season in the big leagues.  He has allowed 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against San Francisco.

Jordan Hicks has been awful for the Giants, allowing 15 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  This total of 7.5 is too low given these offenses, these two below-average starting pitchers and the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-112)

The Minnesota Twins had yesterday off while the Chicago White Sox had to play in Boston and will be traveling to Minnesota overnight.  That's a huge advantage for the Twins, who should easily win this game by two runs or more to cover the Run Line.

The White Sox are 5-17 this season including 1-9 on the road.  Davis Martin is an absolute gas can.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  Martin has allowed 13 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Minnesota.

The Twins have a big advantage on the mound behind Bailey Ober, who has allowed just 5 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Ober has allowed 8 earned runs in 18 innings in his last three starts against the White Sox with the Twins winning all three starts by 4 runs or more.

The Twins are 15-2 in their last 17 meetings with the White Sox.  Seven of their last eight wins have come by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Twins on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Dodgers/Cubs NL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The Chicago Cubs lead all of baseball scoring 6.0 runs per game this season.  The Dodgers are scoring 4.4 runs per game and capable of so much more.  This total of 8 is too low given the forecast.  Temps will be in the 60's with light winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field tonight.

Dustin May is due some regression after feasting on an easy schedule of the Braves, Nationals and Rockies thus far.  Shota Imanaga has allowed 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings to the Rangers in his last home start.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Phillies/Mets NL East No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Phillies and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at Citi Field in New York.  These are two of the most talented lineups in baseball.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Mets and Phillies with 8 or more combined runs in seven of those nine meetings.  The Phillies are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all eight games.  The OVER is 3-1 in Mets last four games overall with 9 or more combined runs in three of those four contests.

Christopher Sanchez has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 19 innings in his last three starts coming in.  Griffin Canning has allowed 8 earned runs and 28 base runners in 21 innings in his four starts this season.  Canning allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start against Philadelphia.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Marlins OVER 8

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 65-23 OVER in all home games dating back to last season.  The Marlins are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all 10 games.  The Marlins have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 12 games coming in, including a total of 23 runs in their last three games.

The Cincinnati Reds have gotten healthier and are showing what they are capable of offensively when that's the case.  The Reds have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last 11 games overall.  The Reds are scoring 7.3 runs per game in their last 11 games overall.  The OVER is 6-1 in Reds last seven games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all seven games, and 11 or more in five of them.

Nick Martinez is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 14 earned runs and 4 homers in 21 innings.  Edward Cabrera is 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 2/3 innings.  Cabrera allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-6 loss to the Reds in his lone career start against them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Rangers/A's OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Rangers and A's tonight.  There will be light winds blowing out to center and temps in the 70's at Sutter Health Park, a Triple-A park in Sacramento that is extremely hitter-friendly.

Patrick Corbin had a 5.20 ERA or worse in four consecutive seasons in Washington while making at least 31 starts in all four seasons.  The Texas Rangers took a shot on him this season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.  He has allowed 4 earned runs and 13 base runners in 9 1/3 innings with just 6 K's in two starts thus far.

Osvaldo Bido is due some regression and has benefited from an extremely soft schedule.  He has faced the White Sox, Rockies, Mariners and Padres thus far.  Three of those are three of the worst lineups in baseball.  The Rangers are better offensively than they have shown thus far and they should bust out of their slump in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles -5

The Minnesota Timberwolves had an outlier shooting performance in Game 1.  They hit 21-of-42 (50%) from 3-point range for the game, while the Lakers shot just 33-of-83 (40%) from the field.  It's safe to say the Lakers are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings, so that was a rare win for the road team in this series.  The Timberwolves did their part and won a game in Los Angeles, and now I expect them to relax while the Lakers play with a big sense of urgency tonight in what feels like a must-win for them.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.