Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Heat/Bucks UNDER 223

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts UNDER team right now.  They have gone UNDER the total in six of their last seven games and we have seen 215 or fewer combined points in six of those contests.  I think this trend continues against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are coming off a 106-105 win over the Clippers for just 211 combined points.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Bucks and Heat in just over three weeks.  They combined for 210 points in their first meeting on January 12th, and came back for just 206 combined points in their second meeting on January 14th.

Miami is 9-1 UNDER following three consecutive road games this season.  Milwaukee is 8-1 UNDER following four or more consecutive wins this season.  The Heat are 18-9 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +5

Both the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But the spot is much worse for the Suns than it is for the Pistons, so getting 5 points with the Pistons at home tonight is simply too much.

The short-handed Suns are coming off a shocking 106-94 win at Boston last night.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here plus having to travel from Boston to Detroit.  It will be the 9th game in 15 days for the Suns, who are without Booker, Payne and Shamet and could be without Cameron Johnson due to injury management.

The Pistons are much healthier and much fresher following their 118-112 home win over the Hornets last night.  They get to stay at home here, had three days off prior to that game, and they will now be playing just their 7th game in 20 days.  This team really couldn't be more fresh than they are right now, and it has shown in their recent play in going 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Nets and Hornets, plus close losses to Dallas by 6 and Houston by 3.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - a hot team winning six or seven of their last eight games, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on zero rest.  Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on zero rest.  The Pistons are 28-10 ATS in the last 38 meetings, including 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Detroit.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +3.5

The Washington Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to the fact that they are as healthy as they have been all year.  They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright victories as underdogs.

Unfortunately, their six-game winning streak came to an end last night with a fluky 116-124 home loss to the Blazers last night in which they blew an 18-point halftime lead.  Now they come back highly motivated for a victory.  The only reason they are underdogs here is due to playing the second of a back-to-back, but they will still be fresh considering they had three days off prior to playing Portland.  Not all back-to-backs are created equal.

I'll gladly fade the Brooklyn Nets as home favorites here.  They remain without Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons and T.J. Warren are both questionable, and now Kyrie Irving is requesting to be traded.  This franchise is just filled with turmoil, especially right now.  They can't be trusted as home favorites given their current state and the way they have played at home of late.

Indeed, the Nets are 14-39 ATS in their last 53 games as home favorites.  The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Washington is 41-17-2 ATS in its last 60 games when playing on zero rest.  Brooklyn is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 home games overall.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +100

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They have lost 10 consecutive games coming into this one with all 10 against playoff contenders.  Now they find themselves as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Lakers, and we'll take advantage.

It's safe to say the Pelicans will be highly motivated to put an end to this 10-game skid.  I like their chances tonight against a banged up Lakers team that could be without LeBron James.  It is also a tired Lakers team playing their 5th consecutive road game that has included a pair of OT games against the Celtics and Knicks.  I think they run out of gas here tonight.

The Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with the Lakers.  New Orleans is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles with its lone loss coming on the road in OT.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State ML -115

San Jose State head coach Tim Miles is one of the best in the country at turning around down programs.  He did it at Nebraska, and now he's doing it at SJSU guiding the Spartans to a 13-9 SU & 14-7 ATS record this season.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Now the Spartans take on one of the most overrated teams in the country in the Wyoming Cowboys, who are 7-14 SU & 7-12-1 ATS this season and playing out a down season.  They haven't had Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG last season) all year and remain without him.  They clearly just aren't very good without their best player.

Wyoming is 1-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  San Jose State is 8-2 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season with recent wins over Air Force by 30, Fresno State by 10 and an upset win over UNLV.  The Spartans have a big rest and preparation advantage with their last game on January 28th, while Wyoming last played on January 31st.

San Jose State is 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less this season.  The Spartans are 7-1 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  San Jose State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss overall.  Bet San Jose State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season.  They are playing well coming in going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only two losses both coming on the road at Ohio State and at Michigan State.

The Hawkeyes have really been impressive in Big Ten home games beating Northwestern by 16, Rutgers by 11, Maryland by 14, Michigan by 9 and Indiana by 2 in their last five.  Now they host an Illinois team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.

Illinois is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall against a pretty soft schedule overall and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  They have played Nebraska twice, Wisconsin twice, and Minnesota during this stretch.  Against their three toughest opponents they were all three at home with wins over Michigan State and Ohio State and a 15-point loss to Indiana.

Iowa is 9-0 ATS at home with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus game.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games.  Iowa is 45-20-3 ATS in its last 68 home games.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa State ML +115

Iowa State is going to be highly motivated for a victory today following consecutive road losses at Missouri and at Texas Tech.  They blew a 23-point lead to the Red Raiders and want to get that nasty taste out of their mouth.  They also want revenge on Kansas after losing 60-62 on the road to the Jayhawks in their first meeting this season on January 14th.

Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-0 SU at Hilton Coliseum this season and this will be one of the best atmospheres in any venue this season.  Kansas is primed for a letdown after beating Kentucky on the road and getting revenge on K-State at home last time out.

Iowa State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games following a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +10.5

The Washington Huskies have been underrated for weeks now in going 4-5 SU but 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have done their best work on the road, losing by 3 as 19-point dogs at Arizona, by 8 as 9-point dogs at ASU, upsetting Colorado outright as 9-point dogs and only losing by 9 at UCLA as 17.5-point dogs.

Clearly, the Huskies can hang with the top teams in the Pac-12 on the road.  Now they catch the USC Trojans in a massive letdown spot following three consecutive wins over ASU, UCLA and Washington State.  They actually trailed 63-65 late against the Cougars on Thursday, but closed on a 17-5 run for a misleading 10-point win.  I think this number has been inflated a couple points too much as a result.

Washington is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a conference loss, including 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a conference road loss.  USC is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  The Huskies are 24-6 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +12

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 10-14 record.  But they rank 59th in Kenpom and are the 4th-most unlucky team in the country according to his rankings.  It's easy to see why as they have eight losses by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.

Washington State actually had a 2-point lead 65-63 over USC on Thursday, but managed to give up a 17-5 run to close in what was a brutal beat for us Cougars +7.5 backers.  The Cougars would be 23-1 ATS as +12 underdogs in their 24 games this season.  This number is way too high today.

That's especially the case when you consider they only lost 66-67 at home in their first meeting with UCLA.  They will be out for revenge for that 1-point defeat.  They take on a Bruins team that has come back down to reality of late going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 6 at Arizona, by 13 at USC and only beating Washington by 9 as 17.5-point favorites.

The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Five of the last seven meetings were decided by 10 points or less in this series.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

20* Miami/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson ML -120

It's time to 'buy low' on the Clemson Tigers.  They were missing a few key players in recent games and underperformed because of it.  That includes their upset road loss at Boston College last time out.

Now the Tigers are fully healthy and back home today where they are a perfect 12-0 SU this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They host at Miami team that has been trading wins and losses in their last nine games.

Indeed, the Hurricanes are 0-4 SU in their last four games following a win.  They have not played well on the road recently going 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming at lowly Florida State.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS int heir last nine home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Clemson is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Clemson on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Purdue/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana PK

The Indiana Hoosiers were rolling going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five games before losing on the road at Maryland last time out.  That was clearly a lookahead spot and they were flat, looking ahead to this showdown against No. 1 Purdue.

Now this will be one of the best atmospheres all season in college basketball.  The Hoosiers will have a huge home-court advantage, and there's a reason this line is a PK against the No. 1 team.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Boilermakers off nine consecutive wins including a pair of blowout home wins over Michigan State and Penn State in their last two games coming in.

Things haven't been so easy for Purdue on the road this season.  They have been fortunate to beat Nebraska by 3, Ohio State by 2, Michigan State by 1 and Michigan by 5.  Their other two road victories came against lowly Florida State and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test of the entire season to this point.

Purdue is 0-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Boilermakers are 2-9 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season.  Purdue is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  The Hoosiers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Virginia/VA Tech ACC No-Brainer on Virginia Tech PK

Virginia Tech is one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season with several close losses.  They have gotten much healthier recently and could go on a run similar to last season where they finished strong and won the ACC Tournament to make the big dance.  This team is fully capable of doing the same thing.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Virginia Cavaliers, who have won seven consecutive games coming in and has been one of the luckiest teams in the country in close games.  In fact, six of their last seven wins came by 10 points or fewer during this run.  Their luck runs out today.

Virginia Tech beat Virginia 62-53 and 65-51 in its last two home meetings with the Cavaliers.  The favorites is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and the Hokies will close the favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso +9

Valparaiso has quietly gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The four wins all came by 7 points or more and by a combined 49 points.  The two losses came by 11 at Northern Iowa and in OT at Missouri State.  They won both of their home games during this stretch.

Now the Beacons have their sights set on revenge from a 63-68 loss at Drake in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching way too many points at home in the rematch.  Asking Drake to win this game by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

Drake is coming off a double-OT 88-81 home win over Northern Iowa.  That makes this a letdown spot and a flat spot after using so much energy to win that game on Wednesday.  The Bulldogs remain one of the most overrated teams in the country over the past two seasons.  

Drake is just 20-35 ATS in all games over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS following a home win this season.  Drake is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Drake hasn't won any of its last eight meetings with Valparaiso by more than 7 points with the Beacons going 7-0-1 ATS in those eight games.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.