Bryan Power Bryan Power
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 26, 2021
Blazers vs Lakers
UNDER 222 -108 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Blazers/Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers are really reeling right now as Anthony Davis is hurt and they’ve lost four in a row. It was pretty clear watching Wednesday’s 114-89 loss to the Jazz that LeBron James is being forced to shoulder too much of the load and is overextended right now. Wednesday was also the third time in the last four games that the Lakers failed to score 100 points. That’s just terrible. On the bright side, the team has still managed to retain the top spot in the defensive efficiency ratings. 

Portland is also on a losing streak (three games) and dealing with injuries. They’ve been without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for a while now. At first, they were making due. But it now seems as if the injuries to two of the team’s three best players are starting to catch up. A bad sign for the Blazers is that they have already suffered six 20+ point losses this season. Another is that they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency rating. However, it was a close loss to Denver Tuesday night (111-106) and the game stayed Under. 

That’s the way I see this one going as well. Just too many injuries on both sides. The Lakers are probably getting Dennis Schroeder back, but by their own admission, the rotation is a mess right now. Portland actually held Denver to 42.6% shooting, a good sign. The Lakers are 3-0 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss and 9-1 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. The Blazers are 18-13 SU on the year. 10* Under Blazers/Lakers

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 26, 2021
New Mexico State vs Tarleton St
Tarleton St
+8½ -110 at linepros
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): My own personal power ratings say the oddsmakers are still underrating Tarleton State. Now the Texans are by no means a great team, or even a good one, but I think they deserve far more respect than what they are getting here at home vs. New Mexico State tonight. It was exactly one week ago that I backed Tarleton State and they ended up winning at Dixie State by a score of 77-59. While they lost the follow-up (Saturday), I still believe they’re underrated here. 

New Mexico State is coming off a split of its own last weekend as they won one and lost one at home vs. Utah Valley State. The key is they won the second game. It has been almost three months since the Aggies won B2B games and when they did it was the first two games of the season, both of which were against non-DI opponents. COVID-19 really wreaked havoc on NMSU’s early season schedule, but they’ve played six games in February and gone 3-3 SU. They are 1-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite this season. 

Last Friday I said it was hard to justify Dixie State being a favorite against anyone. This week I’m saying it’s just as difficult to justify NMSU being a road favorite, especially one of this size. Tarleton State is 4-2 SU at home and while most of those wins were against non-DI teams, they’ve averaged 88.7 PPG. New Mexico State shoots just 27.2% from three-point range on the road while Tarleton State shoots at 40% for the year from there. Not only can the home team cover this one, they can win the game outright. 8* Tarleton State

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 26, 2021
UL - Lafayette vs Arkansas-Little Rock
Arkansas-Little Rock
-2 -109 at pinnacle
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Little Rock (7:30 ET): Little Rock has really hit the skids of late by losing its last six games. They were favored to win in each of the last four, so it’s REALLY been a disappointing stretch. The Trojans got swept by Texas State, Arkansas State and LA Monroe. However, key to understanding this streak is the fact that only one game was played here at home and that was only a two-point loss to Arkansas State. The team is back in Little Rock tonight and I like their chances against Louisiana, who is not sound defensively. 

These Sun Belt teams have already met twice this year, both times in Lafayette, and they split the pair. Both games were decided by just two points and interesting enough the Trojans were favored both times. So it certainly seems as if we’re getting a “discount” on them for tonight’s “rubber match” and the obvious explanation for that has been their poor recent form. Now their win in Lafayette earlier this season did see the Trojans come back from 10 down at the half to win in OT. But the loss was even crazier as the lights in the Cajun Dome briefly turned red on the final possession, clearly screwing with Little Rock’s final possession. It was absurd that the refs did nothing. 

While Little Rock continues to struggle from three-point range, they do lead the Sun Belt in 2-point FG% and free throw rate. So I believe they are going to be able to score plenty tonight against the team with the worst defensive efficiency rating in the conference. Louisiana gives up 77.8 PPG on the road and is just 1-7 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. The time is right for Little Rock to snap its long (and somewhat shocking) losing streak. 8* Little Rock

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 26, 2021
Drake vs Bradley
Bradley
+9 -105 at pinnacle
Tie
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Bradley (7:00 ET): So there is a bit of a risk involved here as Bradley continues to be without three suspended players, including their two top leading scorers. (The suspensions are a part of an ongoing police investigation). The three games they’ve played since the suspensions have NOT gone well for the Braves as they’re 0-3 SU/ATS. However, the Braves get a break tonight in that Drake will be without its leading scorer (Shanquan Hemphill) and I don’t think that’s been properly accounted for in this line. Take the points. 

Bradley has been a massive underachiever this year in the Missouri Valley as they were projected to finish third and even got one first place vote in the preseason poll. Instead, they are 5-11 SU in conference play, which is tied for second worst. Despite the suspensions, the Braves still found themselves favored last Thursday here at home vs. Illinois State. They haven’t played since, so that’s a full week off to prepare for one of the toughest teams in the MVC. It should do the home dog some good. 

Drake’s absurd ATS run seems to be never ending as the Bulldogs are now 55-30 ATS their L85 games, including 18-4 this season. They’ve now won four straight since getting blown out at home by Loyola Chicago two weeks ago, which was a game I faded the Bulldogs. This is the first meeting of the year with Bradley and obviously a game Drake “can’t” lose, given that they are currently tied w/ Loyola a top the MVC standings. But playing w/o their leading scorer, the spread is just too high. 8* Bradley

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
Fighting  |  Feb 27, 2021
Nikita Krylov vs Magomed Ankalaev
OVER 1½ -159
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev (10:15 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) bout scheduled for three rounds on the main card. While we may not get to the scorecards here, I do think this fight will make it at least halfway to the distance as the 27-7 Krylov takes on the 14-1 Ankalaev. Go with the Over 1.5 rounds. 

Magomed Ankalaev suffered a shocking defeat in his UFC debut when he submitted with just one second left in the fight against Paul Craig. Since then (March ‘18), he’s been on a roll, winning five in a row with four finishes, three of them coming in the first round. Ankalaev’s 2020 was odd as he fought Ion Cutelaba twice. The first fight ended in just 38 seconds due to some questionable officiating. The second did go a bit longer, but still ended in Round 1. Still, I expect Ankalaev to have a tougher time here. 

Krylov also had a misleading UFC debut when he gassed badly late in the fight and lost Soa Palelei. That was all the way back in 2013. After dropping two of his first three UFC fights, Krylov finally started to gain “momentum” by winning 9 of his next 10, all by stoppage. But he’s slowed down a bit the L2+ years, splitting his last four fights (2-2 record) and the last two have gone to decision. Krylov is not easy to finish though and it will take time for Ankalaev, if he is able to do it at all. Krylov’s best bet here is to try and wear down his opponent over the course of three rounds. 10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
San Francisco vs Pacific
San Francisco
-1 -110 at Mirage
Play Type: Top Premium

8* San Francisco (10:00 ET): San Francisco is a better team than what they’ve shown recently. The Dons come into this regular season finale on a five-game losing streak, although they at least covered the spread (+9.5) Thursday night at BYU. Before that, they’d failed to cover four in a row and three of those were outright losses as favorites. But most of these losses, save for when they have to face Gonzaga, have been close. I think they go into the WCC Tournament on a “high note” as it should be an easy win tonight at Pacific. 

Pacific also hasn’t had much to cheer about lately. They’ve dropped 7 of their last 10 and two of those three wins came against an atrocious Portland team that is the worst in the whole WCC. The other was against San Diego, who is in second to last place. Thursday saw the Tigers lose an ugly one, 56-48 at St. Mary’s as they were held to just 32.8% shooting including 2 of 9 from three-point range. It was also the sixth time in the last 11 Pacific games they were kept under 60 points. 

Incredibly, USF has been held to just 38.2% shooting while allowing 56.0% shooting during its five game losing streak. That can’t continue. As I just mentioned, Pacific is not a great offensive team (below 30% for the year from 3-point range!) and the Dons are still only allowing 30.7% shooting from behind the arc on the road this season. I just can’t see them losing for a sixth straight time. The road team has covered seven of the last eight meetings. 8* San Francisco

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
Florida State vs North Carolina
UNDER 152½ -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Florida State/North Carolina (4:00 ET): Florida State’s reputation precedes itself here as the total is very high for this matchup with North Carolina. That’s due in large part to the Seminoles’ incredible run of Overs, which now stands at 11 straight games, a streak which dates all the way back to late December. Not to be outdone, UNC has been a “boon” for Over bettors as well. The Over is 3-0 their L3 and 8-3 their L11. When these teams met last month in Tallahassee, the ‘Noles won 82-75. 

However, it is notable that the O/U line in that first meeting was “only” 143.5. That’s a double digit difference compared to today’s O/U line. Obviously, an increase had to be expected. But I think the oddsmakers have gone a bit “overboard” on this one, possibly trying to “suck the public in.” This will be the highest O/U line for any FSU game this season while North Carolina has had only one higher and that was back in early December vs. Iowa, one of the highest scoring teams in the country that also isn’t great defensively.

Florida State’s scoring average predictably dips on the road, so I don’t see them matching some of their recent point totals. They’ve only played five road games all season! Two of them marked their lowest scoring games of the year, a 77-67 loss at Clemson and a 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech. North Carolina just got torched by Marquette, but that was after holding its three previous opponents all to 62 points or less. The Tar Heels are 12-5 Under following a game where they allowed 80+ points. 10* Under Florida State/North Carolina

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 27, 2021
Nuggets vs Thunder
UNDER 225½ -104 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for OKC here. They beat Atlanta last night, 118-109. It was an odd game that saw both teams wearing very similar color jerseys at first. The Thunder made a “wardrobe change” at halftime and it seemed to work, although it was the first half that saw them shoot 60% from the field. I highly doubt we’ll see that kind of shooting again from them and not just because they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency and 27th in points per game. Their four games previous to last night all stayed Under the total. So will this one.

Denver has had its own issues lately, though not wardrobe related. They’ve lost four of six to fall back into eighth place in the Western Conference. That’s still a whole heck of a lot better than where Oklahoma City is at (12th), but the Nuggets were in the Conference Finals last season and expect to finish high. Ironically, I think they’re better than their record this year, something I did NOT believe to be the case each of the L2 seasons. 

These teams just met two weeks ago and the final score was 97-95 with Denver winning at home. They combined to miss 52 of 72 three-point attempts. A little known fact with the Nuggets is that they play at the third slowest tempo in the league, so there are a fewer number of possessions in their games and thus fewer chances to score. Over the L5 games, the Thunder have defended well, allowing an average of just 103 PPG. Three of Denver’s last four games would have stayed Under tonight’s total as would have seven of the last nine Thunder games. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Feb 27, 2021
Brighton & Hove Albion vs West Bromwich Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion
-103 at pinnacle
Lost
$103.0
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Brighton & Hove Albion (10:00 AM ET): It was a puzzling defeat for Brighton & Hove Albion last week on the pitch as they fell 2-1 to Crystal Palace. Not just because I had them and they gave up the game-winner in the 95th minute. But also because the Seagulls dominated possession (74%) and shots (25-3). As previously discussed, Brighton is probably deserving of a better place than 16th in the table and only four points clear of the relegation zone. Their goal differential is better than three teams above them. Last week also snapped a six-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League. 

West Brom seem destined for relegation at season’s end as they currently sit second from the bottom (19th) and have a long way to go (11 points) to reach safety. On the bright side, they have picked up two points from their last two matches, playing to draws with both Manchester United and Burnley. The former, in particular, is impressive. But the Baggies are still winless over their last six and have scored a total of just one goal in their last three. They have the worst goal differential (-36) in the entire EPL as they’ve conceded 55 times in 25 matches 

Last week’s loss as well as a league-high 11 draws have Brighton in an unfortunate position, but I think this fixture is tailor-made for them to pick up three points. They’ve already picked up 16 points from their previous 12 away matches and West Brom has the worst home record in the league. Tariq Lamptey is expected back from a two-month absence due to a hamstring injury. West Brom has only two wins this entire campaign and unlike the reverse fixture (1-1 on Oct 26), I don’t see the sides sharing the points. 10* Brighton & Hove Albion

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Feb 27, 2021
Schalke 04 vs Stuttgart
Stuttgart
-185 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

7* Stuttgart (9:30 ET): While Stuttgart may be “nothing more” than a top half (of the table) side this season, they are clearly better than Schalke and it should be an easy three points on home turf Saturday. Nothing short of a miracle can save Schalke from being relegated at season’s end as their nine points are eight fewer than everybody else and a -41 goal differential is quite easily the worst in all of Europe’s top leagues. They have won only one time all season.

Stuttgart won 1-0 in Koln last weekend and should have no problem remaining in the German top flight next season. The recently promoted side got off to a great start this season, but then began to stumble a bit. They’ve taken only nine points at home all season (just one win) and last won B2B matches back in December. But if ever there was a time for an easy win, it would be here. 

Now believe it or not, Stuttgart is actually winless in the last five fixtures vs. Schalke. The reverse fixture was a 1-1 draw back in October. But again, I see those past results motivating the favorite in this one (same as the other two plays in this 3-pack). Unlike in October, Schalke now knows its future fate. It’s going to be tough for them to drum up ANY motivation on a weekly basis from this point forward. No side has scored less or conceded more. 7* Stuttgart

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Feb 27, 2021
Hertha Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
-133 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

8* VFL Wolfsburg (9:30 ET): With Eintracht Frankfurt’s shocking defeat Friday, Wolfsburg can now have third place in the Bundesliga table all to themselves. They were already (slightly) ahead based on goal differential, but now they can move ahead on points. Frankfurt’s loss also means Wolfsburg can now claim to have the fewest number of losses (2) in the entire Bundesliga this season. They are on a nine-match unbeaten run in the German top flight and only seven points back of leaders Bayern Munich. While they may not be able to get any closer, Saturday marks an excellent opportunity to at least keep pace.

Hertha Berlin’s current position is far less envious. They sit 15th, but sit ahead of the relegation playoff only based on a better goal differential than Arminia Bielefeld. Wolfsburg actually did them a favor by thumping Bielefeld 3-0 last week. Unfortunately, Hertha could not help themselves as they were beaten by that same score against a determined RB Leipzig. With that defeat, Hertha remained winless over their last eight Bundesliga fixtures.

Even more frightening is the fact Hertha has not scored a goal in five of those eight matches. Now they face a Wolfsburg side that has kept a ridiculous seven consecutive clean sheets across all competitions! The Wolves have conceded only 19 goals all season, second fewest in the entire Bundesliga and they can taste Champions League qualification. This is very much a legit top four side in the league as they’ve won six of the last seven. The fact they shared the points in a 1-1 draw with Hertha back in November should have them properly motivated here. 8* VFL Wolfsburg

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The time has come for Bryan Power to EXPAND! Having achieved a tremendous amount of success, Power is expanding his reach in 2015 as he proudly announces the formation of Power Sports Picks (that's "PSP" for short). Power Sports Picks promises to deliver the same quality analysis (and same amount of winning) as before, only now with a FULL TEAM assembled, the SKY IS THE LIMIT!