Brandon Lee

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Arkansas -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Razorbacks as a 7-point home favorite against TCU. I think we are getting a good price on Arkansas in a great spot,m as the Razorbacks are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after dropping their last two. Nothing to be ashamed with those two losses, falling by just 7 at home to Kentucky and by 7 on the road against a red-hot Mississippi State team. The loss to the Wildcats is the only setback Arkansas has had on their home floor. 

As for the Horned Frogs, I think this is the ideal spot to go against them coming off an emotional win at home against rival Texas Tech. You just can't trust this TCU team away from home. Horned Frogs have only played 3 true road games this season. They barely squeaked out a 2-point win at a bad K-State team and then were annihilated by 32 at West Virginia and by 20 at Oklahoma. I just don't think it's asking much for Arkansas to win here by double-digits. 

Look for turnovers to play a big part in the Razorbacks getting separation. Arkansas is 20th in defensive turnover rate and will be facing a TCU team that lacks a true point guard and is 238th in the country in offensive turnover rate. 

Horned Frogs are 2-10 ATS last 3 seasons after 15+ games when playing on the road against a good team (60% to 80%) and 0-6 ATS after 15+ games vs teams who are strong defensively, giving up 64 or fewer points/game. Give me Arkansas -7! 

40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 224.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 224.5 in Saturday's big Western Conference matchup that has Utah facing off against Dallas. The Mavs are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league and just got back one of their biggest offensive weapons in Porzingis. Dallas comes in having scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

Dallas is also vulnerable on defense and even more so right now with the recent loss of big man Dwight Powell. Utah is known for their defense, but they are winning games more with their offense this year. The Jazz come in having scored 118 or more in 6 straight games. I could see both teams scoring 120+ in this one and we likely need just one to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 224.5! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Providence +2)

I'll take my chances here with the Friars as a slim 2-point home dog against Villanova. Books are really begging you to take the Wildcats here. Villanova is laying such a short number for a team that has won 5 straight and are 11-1 over their last 12. 

What people will overlook with Villanova and their great 5-1 start to Big East play, is 4 of their 6 conference games have come at home. They did win at Creighton, but that's a team they have owned. They lost by 11 at Marquette. Providence is a really good home team and will be at their best off back-to-back road losses following a strong 4-1 start to Big East play. Give me the Friars +2! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD BOOKIE ATS DESTROYER (Michigan -4) 

I'll take my chances here with Michigan laying a short number at home against the Illini. I think this is the ideal spot to back the Wolverines off an ugly home loss to Penn State, as well as a great spot to fade Illinois off a big road win over Purdue. I know Michigan is sitting way back at 2-5 in Big Ten play and the Illini are tied at the top with Michigan State at 6-2, but that only makes me like the Wolverines more given they are favored by 4 in this matchup.

As good as Illinois has been playing, it's extremely difficult to win on the road in Big Ten play and I just don't see them winning two straight away from home, especially against a desperate Michigan team. Not to mention Illini are down one of the best players in Alan Griffin, who is suspended for this matchup. GIve me the Wolverines -4! 

40* NCAAB VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Georgia -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Georgia as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Rebels. At this point I don't know how you don't fade Ole Miss at this price. The Rebels haven't won a game in SEC play (0-5) and are a mere 1-7 ATS over their last 8 games. Most recently losing by 25 at Tennessee. That's now 4 straight losses by 10 or more in true road games. 

Georgia has lost 4 of 5, but 3 of those 4 were on the road against the likes of Kentucky, Auburn and Mississippi State. The other was a home loss to the Wildcats. The one favorable matchup for the Bulldogs was a home game against Tennessee and they whooped the Vols by 17. Give me Georgia -5.5! 

40* NCAAB PRIME TIME ATS NO-BRAINER (Utah -7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Utes as a 7-point home favorite against the Cougars. I played and won on Utah in their big come-from-behind win and cover at home against Washington. A game the Utes needed to have after losing 4 straight. As I mentioned in my write-up with the Utes against Washington, Utah's recent struggles were more about the schedule they were dealt, as they had to play 3 straight on the road against Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State, plus had a home game against Oregon. 

Washington State isn't just a team they can beat, it's a team they should handle with ease. The Cougars have played 3 true road games in Pac-12 play and lost all 3, including 20+ point losses at Colorado and Stanford. Give me the Utes -7! 

50* NCAAB NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech -4) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Red Raiders as a 4-point home favorite against Kentucky. Most will think this line is way off, as you don't see the Wildcats as a dog often, but I actually think there's value with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are going to be at their best here off an ugly 2nd half collapse at TCU where a 4-point lead at intermission turned into a 11-point loss. 

While I was on Tech in that loss, it's not a huge surprise to see them struggle on the road, as defensive teams like the Red Raiders are vulnerable on the road when the shots aren't falling. I expect a different looking team at home, where Tech has one of the best home court advantages in the country (4th according to KenPom). Kentucky has also not looked nearly as good on the road as they have at home. Give me the Red Raiders -4! 

40* NCAAB NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Miss St +1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs staying hot and covering as a 1.5-point dog against Oklahoma. While the game will be played in Oklahoma City, which is close to home for the Sooners, this needs to be treated as a neutral site, as Oklahoma has not played at this venue this season. 

Bulldogs were a team that many felt would be a Top 25 squad when the season started. They struggled out of the gate, but are looking more and more like that team of late. They have won 3 straight and rank in the Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the SEC. They are also the best offensive rebounding team in the country and when the Sooners have been outclassed on the boards they have struggled to keep games close. I think the wrong team is favored. Give me the Bulldogs +1.5! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE  (Georgia Tech +1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a home dog against the Wolfpack. Great time to buy low on Georgia Tech after losing 3 in a row. Thing is, all 3 of those could have been wins, as all 3 came by 5-points or less, including a mere 4-point loss at Louisville last time out. 

While it's to jump on the Yellow Jackets, I think it's also time to fade NC State, who has won 3 straight and are primed for a letdown after a grueling 2-point upset win at Virginia last time out. Prior that win over the Cavaliers, Wolfpack had last their previous 3 on the road. Give me the Yellow Jackets +1.5! 

50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Memphis -4) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Memphis as a slim 4-point home favorite against the Mustangs. I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Tigers at home. Part of the value here stems from how bad Memphis played in their last game, which saw them get absolutely annihilated by 40 at Tulsa. 

I just feel like that had more to do with the Tigers not showing up and giving The Golden Hurricane the respect they deserve. We should get the absolute best Memphis has to offer in this one and the Tigers are a different team at home, where they are 10-1 this season. SMU is the same way. The Mustangs are 11-1 at home and just 3-3 on the road. Give me Memphis -4! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Syracuse -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Orange as a 5.5-point home favorite against Pitt. Syracuse has really started to play well over the last couple of weeks. Orange have won 4 straight with 3 of the 4 wins coming on the road. Syracuse won both meetings last year by 9 points and neither of them were on their home floor. I see more of the same, as Pitt has really struggled to get their offense going against zone defenses. 

Hard to see the Panthers keeping it close with how their offense figures to struggle, as the Orange come in No. 2 in the ACC in offensive efficiency and are averaging 75.3 ppg in their 3 ACC home games this season. Give me Syracuse -5.5! 

40* NBA PRIME TIME ATS SLAUGHTER (Pelicans +1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with New Orleans getting that elusive first win with Zion in the mix. Pelicans were favorites in each of Zion's first two games but came up short against the Nuggets and Spurs. I just think this is a great spot for them to take down the Celtics. Boston was just at Orlando on Friday and while they were able to rally for a win, it certainly helped they were playing a limited Magic offense. 

Pelicans can really score and Boston could be without two of their best players in Tatum and Brown. Both didn't play against the Magic and are questionable here. Either way I like the Pelicans to win this game. GIve me New Orleans +1.5! 

40* NBA NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Nuggets -2) 

I'll take my chances here with the Nuggets as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Rockets. These two teams just played at Houston this past Wednesday. Rockets won that game 121-105 to snap a 4-game skid, but they did so against a short-handed Nuggets team that had just played in Minnesota two days earlier. 

Since that game Denver has gotten two key pieces back and while they aren't full strength, I still think this is too good a price to pass up with them at home and playing with revenge. Rockets have won their last two, but James Harden is still not himself and may not even play. Houston is also just 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road. Give me the Nuggets -2! 

40* NCAAB PUBLIC MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Minnesota +3) 

I'll take my chances here with Minnesota as a home dog against the Spartans. Even though Michigan State just lost on the road at Indiana, who is not as good a team as Minnesota, public perception is that the Spartans won't lose two straight. Teams are going to go on skids in the Big Ten and Michigan State is not an exception to that. 

I know the Spartans beat the Gophers 74-58 at home earlier this month, but Minnesota is a different team at home and the Gophers come in playing well with 3 wins in their last 4, including a 62-59 victory at Ohio State last time out. Minnesota is 4-0 at home in Big Ten play and have lost just once at home all season. I don't think they are outmatched at all here. GIve me the Gophers +3! 

50* NCAAB MISSOURI VALLEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (UNI -4) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with UNI as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Ramblers. I just think this is way too good a price to pass up with UNI at home, as they Panthers are a perfect 10-0 at home this season. 

No question we are getting the very best UNI has to offer in this one. Not only will they be motivated off a loss, but they can move into a tie for 1st in the MVC with a win. A lot of people think the Ramblers are the best team in the MVC, but according to KenPom the Panthers are and it's not really close. UNI is ranked 46th and Loyola is 84th. 

Ramblers defense is great, but so is UNI's offense, especially at home. Panthers should also be able to dominate the offensive boards. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the MVC and that's a big weakness of Loyola. Give me UNI -4! 

40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD ATS NO-BRAINER (Indiana -1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Pacers as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Terps. Easy play here for me with Indiana. The Hoosiers are simply a different team at home compared to on the road and we saw that in their last game when they took down Michigan State 67-63 on their home floor. It was their 3rd win this season at home against a team ranked in the Top 15 of the KenPom rankings. 

Maryland has not looked the same on the road as they have at home. Terps were able to pull out a 77-66 win at Northwestern in their last game, but they were lucky to do so after trailing 40-26 at the half. That was their first win on an opponents home court this season, as they had lost each of their previous 4. Give me Indiana -1.5!