Brandon Lee

FREE PICK: San Francisco 49ers -4
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 472

I will gladly lay the 4-points at home with the 49ers as they will host the Colts on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. I just think this is way too good a price to pass up with the 49ers. Yes, San Francisco is just 2-3 SU, but their 3 losses have come against the Packers, Seahawks and Cardinals, all by 7 points or less. Keep in mind they lost starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the middle of their game against Seattle and didn't have him in the loss to Arizona. 

He's back this week and I think he's a massive upgrade over Trey Lance. There was a lot of hype around Lance, but the guy is not a good passer of the football. He's got a great arm, but he's got no touch and is not equipped to beat NFL defenses at this stage of his career. 

You also have a 49ers team that is coming off their bye and will be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after losing their 3 games before the bye. 

The Colts are 2-4 with their only two wins coming against two bad teams in the Dolphins and Texans. I just think that people remember the first 3 quarters they played against Baltimore on MNF a couple weeks ago. I just don't trust Carson Wentz and that Indy defense hasn't been as good as what we thought it would be this year. Give me the 49ers -4! 

40* (NFL) - Smart Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Patriots -6.5) 

I was considering the Pats at -7, but was hoping this thing would drop to 6.5 at some point during the week and it did. I just think that because the Patriots come into this game at 2-4 there's value on them right now. NE has not been as bad as their record. The only game they lost that they didn't have a legit shot at winning is their Week 3 game against the Saints. They lost by 1-point against the Dolphins where they fumbled the game away, lost by 2 at home to the Bucs where they missed a late FG and just lost 29-35 at home in OT to the Cowboys. 

One of their two wins came against these Jets, which they won going away 25-6. As he often does, Bill Belichick devised a game plan that made life miserable for a rookie quarterback. Zach Wilson completed just 19 of 33 attempts for 210 yards and 0 TD passes to 4 interceptions. It's not going to be any easier the second time around, especially on the road against a Pats team that will be all in to get back in the win column this week. Give me the Patriots -6.5! 

50* (NFL) - Bengals/Ravens AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH (Bengals +6.5) 

I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Ravens. I just think when a team everyone expects to be good backs it up with their record, they really become a public play.

That definitely feels like the case with Baltimore, who are 5-1 and own the best record in the AFC. This is a good Ravens team. However, they are very lucky to be 5-1. If the Chiefs don't fumble in the final minutes, they are going to have a chip shot field goal to win that game. Baltimore also needed the longest field goal in NFL history to beat the Lions and trailed 25-9 in the 2nd half of a 31-25 OT win against the Colts at home. 

On the flip side of things, Cincinnati comes in at 4-2 and are one of the big surprises early on this season. I just don't think the Bengals hot start is a fluke. They have a great quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is on the verge of being an elite starter in this league. They also got a very underrated defense. 

Cincinnati isn't just good enough to keep this game within a TD, they can definitely win this game outright. This line to me should be more like Baltimore -3. You don't get this much value in the NFL often. Give me the Bengals +6.5! 

40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bears +13) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Bears as a 13-point road dog against the Bucs. We saw it last year with the Chiefs after their SB win, the books just got tired of people winning money on them and they started to inflate their spreads by what felt like more than a FG per game. 

I think we are seeing the same thing with Tampa Bay this year. The Bucs are just 2-4 ATS to start the year and both of their covers were a bit fortunate. They won 48-25 against the Falcons as a 13-point favorite after going into the 4th quarter leading by a score of just 28-25. They also covered double-digits against the Dolphins where they only led 24-17 going into the 4th quarter. 

Chicago isn't a great team, but they are a heck of a lot better than the Falcons and Dolphins, yet they are being priced the same. 

I know Fields hasn't been the guy we thought we were going to get after his great preseason performances, but some of that in my opinion is coaching. While I'm not banking on anything, I do think there's reason to be optimistic he can get something going against this banged up Bucs secondary. 

The other big thing for me, is I think Chicago's got a very underrated defense. Since giving up 34 in their opener to the Rams, they haven't allowed more than 30 in their last 5 games. Last week they held Green Bay to just 24 points and Aaron Rodgers and that Packers pass attack had just 169 thru the air. Tom Brady is great, but he is going to have to make it work in this game without two of his best options in tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide out Antonio Brown. Give me the Bears +13! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 57)

We didn't get their with the Chiefs OVER last week, as KC's defense played it's best game of the year. The Chiefs held Washington scoreless in the 2nd half and to just 13 points for the game. While I would expect that KC defense to not be as bad as it was to start the year, let's not forget who they were playing. Washington is a complete mess right now. 

I just don't see a scenario in this game where the Chiefs are able to contain Derek Henry for the Titans. KC has one of the worst run defenses in the league, giving up 133 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. Tennessee is going to be in 2nd and short all game long. 

On the flip side of this, the Chiefs offense should be in for a field day as well. While Patrick Mahomes and that KC offense hasn't quite looked as good as what we expected to see, they are still an elite offensive team. They are scoring 30.8 ppg, putting up 434 ypg and averaging 6.6 yards/play. 

Mahomes and that Chiefs offense will be up against a bad Titans defense. Tennessee is giving up 276 passing yards/game and 7.7 passing yards per attempt. That's with playing half of their games against the Jags, Jets and Colts. They gave up 280 to Kyler Murray, 320 to Russell Wilson and 335 to Josh Allen. Mahomes has thrown for 740 yards and 6 TDs in his last 2 starts vs the Titans. Play the OVER 57! 

40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3)

I'm going to take the Carolina Panthers as a 3-point road favorite against the New York Giants in Week 7 of the NFL. Even after that tough loss we took with the Panthers in last week's OT loss at home to the Vikings, I'm not going to let that deter me from backing this team laying just a field goal against a bad Giants team that appears to be getting worse and worse as the season progresses. 

I know this is going to be a big public play with everyone looking to fade the Giants right now, but we have seen a number of these short road favorites cover in recent weeks. I just think more than anything, we are getting value with the Panthers because of the fact that they come into this game having lost and failed to cover in each of their last 3 games. 

Sam Darnold has been a big reason why Carolina has seen their season to a complete 180 flip after their 3-0 start. After throwing just 1 interception in that perfect 3-0 start to the season, Darnold has thrown 6 picks in the last 3 games. 

Panthers head coach Matt Rhule appears to have had enough of trying to let the offense rely on the arm of Darnold. After the loss to the Vikings, Rhule came out and said the offense is going to have a vastly different look and is going to focus everything around the run game. 

It's up in the air if this plan of attack can work long-term without Christian McCaffrey as the lead back, but I do think it's the right game plan against the Giants. In New York's last 3 games, they have allowed an average of 167.3 rushing yards/game. 

I also think you got to look at how much the Giants offense is struggling to score. New York can't run the ball and Daniel Jones looks to be in over his head with all the injuries the Giants have around him on offense.

Highly unlikely that Saquon Barkley will be back for this game, they also figure to be missing talented rookie wide out Kadarius Toney. Two other wide outs, Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton are also both question. It's not just the skill players, they just lost starting left tackle Andrew Thomas and are now down three of their Week 1 starters on the offensive line, as starting guard Shane Lemieux and center Nick Gates are likely out for the year. 

This just feels to me like the perfect get right spot for Carolina and we are getting them at quite the discount. Give me the Panthers -3!