Art Aronson

This is a 10* on GSW

Golden State is 2-0 after sweeping the two LA teams. They upset the Lakers 121-114 on Opening Night. Then they defeated the Clippers 115-113 on Thursday. Two close wins, but in the Clippers game they did lead by as many as 19 at one juncture. Steph Curry made 10 three pointers in that game and scored 45 points. We’re starting to see “the Warriors of old.” While we aren’t saying they are back to that championship level, they are certainly better than a Sacramento team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 15 years. The Kings did win their first game, 124-121 over Portland, but couldn’t hold off Utah in a 110-101 loss on Friday. This is a situation where we simply believe one team (Golden State) is much better than the other and we’re getting an early season discount. Play on GOLDEN STATE

This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis put up 31 points last week in a win over Houston. The week before that they put up 25 against Baltimore. The week before that they scored 27 against Miami. So that’s an average of 27.7 points the last three weeks and the offense is averaging 416.7 yards to boot. Carson Wentz is playing well for them. He has already thrown for more than 1500 yards and nine touchdowns against just one interception. Versus Baltimore, Wentz threw for a career-high 402 yards and then he averaged more than 20 yards per completion last week against Houston. So we expect them to put up a solid number of points this week. The Colts would have even more points scored this year if not for some unfortunate red zone inefficiency. As for San Francisco, Jimmy G is back in the starting lineup. The last time he finished a game was also on a Sunday night (vs. Green Bay) and the 49ers scored 28 points. The team is coming off a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for facing the Colts' defense. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on CHICAGO

The Bears are playing the Bucs this week, which looks like a mismatch on paper. However, this is a lot of points for the road team to be getting. Three of Tampa Bay’s wins have been by no more than six points. Another saw them return two late interceptions for touchdowns to make a deceiving final score. So we expect the Bears to at least “hang around” Sunday and keep this one respectable. Tampa Bay has a big division game on deck (at New Orleans) and could be looking past this one. There are four starters out due to injuries and all of them are big names (Gronk, Antonio Brown, Lavonte David and Richard Sherman). The Bucs defense has not exactly been very good. They’ve allowed the sixth most passing yards per game. Only one win has come against a Top 10 defense and that was a two-point victory at New England. The Bears’ defense leads the league in sacks. They beat Tampa Bay last season 20-19. Again, we expect this one to be relatively close. Grab the points. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

This is a 10* on LV

Philadelphia was very lucky to cover last Thursday against Tampa Bay. They were down 28-7 in the third quarter. After scoring a TD late in the third quarter, they scored another late in the fourth, then added a 2-point conversion to get within the number. Tampa Bay drove the ball down inside the Eagles’ five yard line on the final possession, but ended up kneeling to run the clock out. Total yards in the game were 399-213 in the Buccaneers' favor. While it technically counts as a “close loss” for the Eagles, it was anything but. We don’t like their chances this week as they go into Las Vegas to face a Raiders team that is off a commanding 34-24 win over Denver last week. The Raiders are 4-2 and last week was an amazing performance when you consider all the drama caused by former coach Jon Gruden. The team is obviously willing to play hard for interim coach Rich Bisaccia. The Eagles are not well respected by the oddsmakers. They are one of only four teams that has been an underdog in every game. Their defense is 28th against the run. If not for a late comeback against Carolina two weeks ago, they’d be coming into this game on a five-game losing streak. Led by Derek Carr, look for the Raiders to move to 5-2 on the year and easily cover this short spread. Play on LAS VEGAS

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

The Patriots are still without a home win this year, but that’s likely to change after today. They host the Jets, a team they’ve already beaten 25-6. But if New England is to pick up that elusive first home victory, expect it to come in low scoring fashion. We are on the Under in this AFC East matchup. The Jets are off a bye and have been an underdog in every game. Rookie QB Wilson threw four picks the first time he faced Belichick’s defense. It was not a pretty sight. Here’s the thing though: the Patriots’ offense gained only 260 yards in that game. In three of the four home games this year, New England has failed to score 20 points. So we’re not counting on them scoring a ton here. Most of those 25 points they scored in the first game with the Jets were off turnovers. For the Jets, QB Wilson hasn’t matured enough where we’d expect him to play that much better in this rematch. But he should limit the turnovers this time. The Jets’ offense hasn’t gained 300 total yards in any game that didn’t go to overtime. That’s pretty sad. The Jets are last in points per game (13.4), 31st in total yards and 31st in rushing. New England only had 14 points with six minutes to go last week and they rank 26th in total yards and 27th in rushing yards. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 9* on CINCY

This is where we find out if the Bengals are “for real” or not. They come in with a 4-2 record. The only two losses have been by three points. They’ve also won two games by a field goal. Last week saw them record their most comfortable victory of the still-young season, winning 34-11 at Detroit. QB Burrow threw three touchdown passes in a game that was never really close. It will be a much tougher test this week in Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-0 at home so far. But two of the three wins came by six points or less. They too are off a dominant win, 34-6 over the Chargers in their case. With Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have really had the Bengals number the last couple years. But here’s the thing. The Bengals are now much better. Their defense is up to eighth in yards given up and fifth in points allowed. Because of the expectation that this game may be pretty low scoring, we will take the points. Cincinnati has covered five of its last seven trips into Baltimore. Burrow is 6-2 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. Play on CINCINNATI

AAA