Art Aronson

This is an 8* play on South Dakota

I always give at least a cursory glance to the added board on a day such as this and today something really caught my eye. South Dakota probably deserves to have a better record than its current mark of 8-10 as all but three of those defeats have been by six points or less. I like them today in the underdog role visiting Omaha. The hosts got off to a very rough 3-7 start to this year, but have turned things around by going 7-1 in their last eight games. But don't go buying these Mavericks just yet as I don't believe they'll be able to maintain their recent scoring pace. South Dakota will slow this game down and play at their preferred tempo, which should keep things lower scoring and thus an ideal spot for an underdog. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH DAKOTA 

AAA

This is a 10* play on VANCOUVER

Vancouver is simply the better team here. Sure, they've won only two of their last six games. But both wins were here at home, including one on Thursday, 4-3 over Buffalo. The Canucks are still a very viable threat to make the playoffs as they have 50 points, which is just one back of what would be the final Wild Card in the Western Conference. They still won't have rookie Elias Pettersson out on the ice, but expect Jacob Markstrom to be back in goal for this Sunday afternoon game. Markstrom almost always plays well when coming off extended rest and he wasn't in the crease for the Buffalo game. Detroit has a budding star in Dylan Larkin, but little else as they've fallen into last place in the Atlantic Division. Unlike Vancouver, the Red Wings playoff aspirations can be considered little more than a pipe dream at this point. They gave up six goals in their last game and that loss made it 10 in the last 13 games. They are just 16-37 their last 53 road games. Play on VANCOUVER

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON COLLEGE

Florida State has not been even a little bit reliable as a favorite in the 2018-19 season. They've gone 5-10 ATS in that role and just lost outright at Pittsburgh earlier in the week. That was certainly a tough spot to be laying points on the road as the 'Noles were just 48 hours removed from coming up two points shorts against Duke. But losing to Pitt by 13 was pretty bad. So was missing 20 of their 22 three-point attempts in the game. Here, FSU again is on the road. They'll be playing Boston College, whose dropped five in a row. But be aware that two of those five losses for the Eagles have come by three points or less. For B.C., this is a welcome return to Chesnut Hill as they've lost tough road games to Notre Dame and Louisville in the last week. Boston College does have four double digit scorers. They're also 5-1 ATS when taking points. They've covered in three of those five losses. This one could be an upset win. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Phoenix-Minnesota

I think we can count on these two to produce a high-scoring game. Phoenix is a very poor defensive team, one of the worst in the league in that regard. When they take their losing act out on the road, they give up almost 118 PPG. I played against the Suns yesterday as they went down 135-115 at the hands of Charlotte. Something very similar could take place here today in Minnesota as the Timberwolves aren't shy about scoring (113.9 PPG) nor are they the toughest team defensively either. Two games ago, they gave up 149 points to Philadelphia, who shot almost 60% for the game. They've given up at least 116 four times in the past five games. The Over is 16-5 in Minnesota's last 21 games overall, which includes 7-2 the last nine at home. The Over is also 7-1 the last eight times they've been off a SU defeat and Friday they did lose to San Antonio, 116-113. I project both teams to score at least 115 points in this matchup. Play OVER on Phoenix-Minnesota

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER between New England & Kansas City.

The Over on last Sunday's Chargers-Patriots game, my only play on a NFL total for the whole weekend, won easily. As you may have read when buying this selection, was a LOCK by halftime, a WINNER by the third quarter & ended up going Over by THREE touchdowns! New England had 35 points by halftime and then was able to take its foot off the gas. The amount of scoring done by the Patriots does decline greatly on the road. But the good news for this week is that they won't have to score nearly as many points this week for the game to go Over. Not when faced with Kansas City's offense, which ranked 1st in yards per game, per play and points during the regular season. When these teams met in the regular season, it was 43-40, a win for New England. Maybe this game isn't as high scoring. But I don't think they'll combined to score 30 less points, do you? The Over is 6-1 in the Patriots last seven playoff games. Play New England @ Kansas City OVER. 

AAA

This is an 8* play on the PATRIOTS

It's somewhat ironic that both underdogs this week (New England, Los Angeles) have not been an underdog in any other game this season. With the Patriots, they haven't been a dog since Week 1 of the 2016 season when they played at Arizona and Tom Brady was suspended. They still won that game, mind you. The last time Brady was an underdog was Week 14 of the 2014 season and the Patriots lost to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, 26-21. But that's the only time in the last five tries New England hasn't covered as an underdog. They haven't been an underdog in the playoffs since the 2014 AFC Championship at Denver. This week will be just the 7th time in 39 playoff games with Brady & Belichick that the Patriots are underdogs. They have a far better playoff resume that Andy Reid and Kansas City and I think that matters. The Patriots also already own a win over the Chiefs this year, 43-40 in Foxboro. While they did need a last second Stephen Gostkowski field goal to win, New England led for all but all seven minutes of actual game time. They also rolled up 500 yards on the Chiefs defense. Last week, you saw how dominant Brady can be when he's doubted. The Patriots scored 35 points in the first half. They'll be motivated again here. Play on NEW ENGLAND.

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the RAMS.

There's a lot of attention this week on the fact that the PATRIOTS are an underdog for the first time since the 1st week of the 2016 season. But the RAMS are the only other team besides the Patriots to have been favored in every game this year. That includes when they played here at the Superdome back in Week 9. Of course, they lost that game. It was their first loss all season (started 8-0) and while the final score ended up being 45-35 Saints, it was really never close as the Rams trailed virtually the whole game and were down 35-17 in the first half. Like New England, LA is now a dog for the 1st time all year when playing for its Conference Championship. I think the fact the line has moved so much for this rematch is significant when handicapping this game. The Rams actually closed at -2.5 for the regular season matchup. Are things really that different now? I understand that the Saints won easily the first time around and have never lost a home playoff game with Drew Brees as the starting QB. But, if anything is different this time around, it's that the Saints aren't looking as strong as they did just a few weeks ago. They trailed the Eagles last week, 14-0, before scoring 20 unanswered. But those 20 points did not come easy. Since they last faced the Rams, the vaunted New Orleans offense has been held to 20 points or less in four of seven games. I like the points here. Play on LA RAMS.

AAA