Art Aronson

This is a 10* on USC

USC already has a game under its belt and it didn’t really go as well as expected. They were still victorious mind you, but needed overtime to defeat Cal Baptist by a score of 95-87. They didn’t even come close to covering the number, which was -18.5. But what that close call does for us here is provide some value. We certainly expected the Trojans to be favored by more against Montana, who has yet to play in 2020. What hurt USC Wednesday night was the fact Cal Baptist went 20 of 41 from three-point range. The Trojans were just 5 of 19 from distance. That kind of discrepancy shouldn’t exist again tonight. You’d expect USC to be the better three-point shooting team. Or maybe they don’t have to be considering they made 32 of 47 two-point attempts in that first game! Montana is just 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Grizzlies lost almost all of their offensive production from last season and are really going to struggle early on. Play on USC

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Nevada is 5-0 and leading the Mountain West Conference. By the time this game kicks Saturday night, either San Jose State or Boise State (both 4-0) will be tied with them for first place. The Wolf Pack look to stay in front when they make a trip out to Honolulu to face 2-3 Hawaii, who just faced Boise State. A 40-32 loss to the Broncos was the second time in three weeks that a Hawaii game had 72 total points scored. It was also the fourth straight game where the Warriors gave up more than 30 points. They are giving up 36.5 per game at home. Nevada is scoring 32.2 so they should definitely do their part in getting this one to the total. QB Carson Strong has thrown for 340+ yards in four of the five games. So this Over boils down to the Hawaii offense. Nevada has not faced many good offenses thus far. Hawaii has topped 30 three of its five games with the two exceptions being against two good defensive teams (San Diego State, Wyoming). Two home games have seen the Warriors score 71 points so far. Both teams likely hit 30 here. The Over is 21-8 the last 29 instances of Hawaii being a home dog and its 6-0 when they are off a straight up loss. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the UNDER

This is just too high of a total when one of the teams has gone Under in six straight and only averages 20.1 points/game. The team in question is South Alabama, who is 3-6 and just dropped its 4th straight last week, 31-14 to Georgia State. The Jaguars haven’t topped 17 points in any of those last four contests. Now this week’s opponent - Arkansas State - is very much a “bird of a different feather.” They are scoring 31.4 points while giving up 39.6. There have been three games this year where the Red Wolves have scored 45 or more. One of those was last week. But last week was also the fourth game where they gave up at least 45 and they lost 47-45 to Texas State. Something is going to have to give this week in the Sun Belt. Before last week’s 47-45 loss, ASU’s last games saw 47, 48 and 62 combined points scored. They scored just 20, 10 and 17. By the way, Arkansas State is also 3-6 and on a four-game losing streak. So while we’re tempted to simply say this winds up being more of a “South Alabama” game, it’s really more indicative of where both teams are at. Can’t see both getting to 30 or one getting to 40. Play on UNDER

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analysis soon

This is an 9* on UTSA

UTSA has gotten in a lot more games than North Texas. This will be the Roadrunners’ 11th game of the season. Entering this weekend, only Texas State has played more. North Texas has played only six games including just one over the last month. That one was played last week and was a 27-17 win over Rice. It was their second straight win after three straight losses. Besides Rice, they’ve beaten a very bad Middle Tennessee team and Houston Baptist, a FCS program. UTSA is 6-4 on the year and has won three of four. They are off a 23-20 win at Southern Miss and now return home where they’ve gone 4-1 SU. Another pertinent trend is that UTSA has won the last seven times it has been favored, four of those games coming this year. North Texas, who trailed 10-0 last week, has a poor defense. The Mean Green are giving up 520.5 yards/game. That is a LOT. They did a good job stopping the run against Rice last week, but UTSA has 521 yards rushing in its last two games. The North Texas secondary was also shredded for 327 yards last week. UTSA always gets it done as a favorite so we’ll happily lay this short number. Play on UTSA

AAA

This is a 10* on MARYLAND

Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. But they are coming off their first loss of the year, in a high-profile situation, to #3 Ohio State. Considering they were almost three touchdown underdogs in Columbus, we’d say the Hoosiers played well in a 42-35 loss. Well, except for the run game, which produced -1 yard. The bottom line though is IU’s “bubble” was burst and this looks like a classic hangover spot against a Maryland team that already has two upset wins to its credit. The Terrapins have beaten Minnesota as a 17.5 point underdog and then Penn State as a 27.5 point underdog. So an outright win Saturday definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Unlike Indiana, who is one week removed from a loss to Ohio State, Maryland has been off for two weeks. So the schedule really favors them here. The reason for having those last two weeks off - cancellations vs. Michigan State and Ohio State - should be obvious at this point (COVID). But even though he’s been forced to coach virtually these last two weeks, coach Locksley feels his team is ready. Indiana was down 28 last week and this is just the third time they’ve been favored in 2020. Play on MARYLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA

We got down on Oklahoma quickly here, figuring the line was going to rise. Sure enough, the line has risen with the Sooners fresh off a 41-13 thumping of rival Oklahoma State on Saturday. That Bedlam win has OU back in the driver's seat, when it comes to making the Big 12 Championship Game. But - having already suffered two conference losses - they cannot afford a slip-up these next two weeks. With that in mind, we’re calling for “Boomer Sooner” to roll to an easy victory this Saturday night in Morgantown. They enter this game having not only won five in a row, but having successfully covered the spread five straight times. They really hammered OK State last week with nearly a 2:1 edge in total yards. It was OU’s third straight win by at least 28 points and they’ve averaged 50.2 points during the 5-game SU/ATS win streak! If you go back and look at their two losses - by 5 to Kansas State and 7 to Iowa State - the Sooners SHOULD have won both of those games. They blew a 21-point lead in the 2nd half to Kansas State and lost a 4th quarter lead at Iowa State. The West Virginia faithful are probably going to tell you all about the Mountaineers’ perfect 5-0 SU (4-0 ATS) record at home. But that’s come against four of the bottom five from the Big 12 + a FCS school. They are 9-23-3 ATS in Morgantown vs. teams that have winning road records. Oklahoma is 2-1 on the road and the best team WVU will face all season. Even a bye week won’t be enough to have the Mountaineers adequately prepared. Since joining the Big 12, WVU has never beaten Oklahoma in eight tries and their defense has given up at least 52 points each of the last four years. Lay it. Play on OKLAHOMA

AAA

This is a 10* on SMITH

We’ve got a new main event for tonight’s UFC card with the Blaydes-Lewis fight being the latest victim of COVID-19 cancellations. It will be Anthony Smith taking on Devin Clark in a battle of light heavyweights (205 lbs). Clark was originally supposed to face Shamil Gamzatov, but that fight was nixed due to Gamzatov having visa issues. So in steps Smith, who is the favorite despite losing three of his last four fights. But consider the caliber of competition he’s been up against. One of those three losses was to Jon Jones. Someone who previously was in the title mix should not have much trouble taking care of Clark, who is just 6-4 and never proven himself to be a legit contender in the division. All Clark’s UFC wins have been by decision and it’s very unlikely that he could produce a finish here. What likely ends up happening is that Smith wears Clark down over the course of the fight and wins via judge’s decision. But don’t rule out a knockout either as Smith is the superior striker here. Play on ANTHONY SMITH

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