Art Aronson

This is a 10* UNDER on Denver-Indiana

Indiana has done a great job at staying Under the total recently with eight of their last nine games going that way. But so has Denver, who is riding a five-game Under streak entering Sunday and 14-1 Under its last 15 games. During a six-game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 102 points per game. They should not have much trouble containing a Pacers team that is beginning to really miss not having leading scorer Victor Oladipo. But one thing that Indiana does still have is the league's top scoring defense as they are giving up just 104.2 PPG for the season and that number drops to 100.2 when playing at home. Denver isn't nearly as prolific on offense when they're on the road as they're scoring average dips over seven points per game compared to at home. Due almost exclusively to that drop in scoring, the Under is 23-12 in all Nuggets road games. These teams just played last Saturday, in Denver, and the Nuggets prevailed 102-100. The rematch should be just as low scoring, if not more so due to Denver's decrease in scoring on the road and Indiana's superb defense at home. Play UNDER Denver-Indiana

AAA

This is an 8* play on COLUMBUS

We played against Vancouver last night and they lost here at home to Calgary by a score of 3-1. The opponent isn't quite as strong Sunday night, but they are more desperate. Columbus is on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They need two points just to keep pace w/ Montreal, who holds the final Wild Card spot and is three points ahead. The Blue Jackets have done themselves no favors recently by losing three in a row. But that losing streak should end tonight as the Canucks are without rest and motivation. Losses at both Boston and Calgary were excusable for C-bus, but the 4-1 loss they suffered at Edmonton Thursday night was not. Fortunately, the Jackets are 16-7 coming off a multi-goal loss this year. An offense that has averaged only 2.08 goals per game since the trade deadline really needs to get going. It should here against a Vancouver team that is below average defensively. The Blue Jackets have revenge here too as they lost at home to the Canucks back in December. A good spot for the road team to get back on track. Play on COLUMBUS

AAA

This is a 10* play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon

We're guaranteed to have at least one Sweet Sixteen team seeded 12th or lower thanks to this matchup. While it can and will be said that both Oregon and UC Irvine pulled upsets, really, only the latter truly did. Oregon actually opened as a 1-pt favorite for its first round game vs. Wisconsin and for good reason. The Ducks are as hot right now as any team in the country. The 72-54 win and cover over the Badgers was their ninth in a row. As in they're 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Seven of those nine victims were held to a field goal percentage of 34.0 or lower. Speaking of defense, that's how UC Irvine pulled the biggest upset in terms of seed (13 over 4), beating Kansas State. The Big West Champs are no slouch and we don't expect Oregon to shoot 54.9% from the floor in this game (like they did vs. Wisconsin). No UC Irvine opponent has shot better than 42.0 percent its last 12 games. We get that it's a low total. But the Under is 12-3 in Oregon's past 15 games. UC Irvine has gone Under in 15 of its last 22 when facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or better. Two good defensive teams go Under. Play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon

AAA

This is an 8* UNDER Washington-North Carolina

We expect North Carolina to roll in this second round matchup with Washington, but don't go expecting them to hit their season average in points per game. Thanks to a big second half, they did hit 88 in the first round. But that was against a bad defensive team in Iona. Washington is actually very good on the defensive end as it holds its foes to an average of 64.3 points per game. The Huskies really kept Utah State in check Friday night, limiting them to 61 points on 35.2% shooting. But the UW offense will be what ultimately costs the team this game. It's been a 63.4 PPG average the last five games, which includes a pair of sub-50 point efforts against Oregon. UNC is even stronger than Oregon on the defensive end. That the Huskies struggled so much on offense in a weak Pac 12 is a very bad sign for this game. They shot much better than usual against Utah State, which we don't see being the case here. Four of North Carolina's last five games have gone Under with none of those opponents scoring 75 points. The Under is now 4-0 in the Tar Heels' previous four Tournament games. Washington is 6-1 Under its last 7 games following an ATS victory. Play UNDER Washington-North Carolina

AAA

This is a 10* play on NORTH CAROLINA

Three ACC teams received #1 seeds in this Tournament and all three surprisingly struggled with their first round opponent. In the case of North Carolina, they were actually down 38-33 to Iona at halftime. But the Tar Heels exploded in the second half, scoring 55 points and won easily. Meanwhile, Washington may not have been able to play any better than it did against Utah State. They won 78-61, leading virtually the whole way. But we don't expect the Huskies to play that well again and UNC should certainly start better than they did Friday night. For what it's worth, the Tar Heels are 8-1 against the spread away from Chapel Hill, if coming off an Under. The Iona game did stay Under a very high total. Washington is not a good offensive team. Believe it or not, they have the lowest offensive efficiency of any team left in the tournament - with the exception of UC Irvine. Twice, Oregon held UW below 50 points late in the year, one of those in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. North Carolina is an even better defensive team that Oregon. Obviously, there's no comparison on offense as the Tar Heels average 86.1 points per game. Play on NORTH CAROLINA

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