Art Aronson

This is a 10* TOP DOG OF THE DAY on the Cleveland Indians.

Charlie Morton (6-0, 1.94 ERA) has so far been superb, but we think that regression is imminent. Morton most recently held these very Indians to one run off four hits with eight strikeouts over seven innings in the victory last Friday. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (3-1, 2.87) who threw opposite Morton last week, giving up three runs off eight hits with six strikeouts over 6.1 innings. Despite the setback, it was still Clevinger’s fourth straight quality outing. Note though that Houston is already 0-2 (-2.4 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Cleveland is 21-17 (+2.8 units) at home when the money line is in the same range. We’re banking on Clevinger and the INDIANS to get a little redemption tonight and for Morton to finally break down after his unsustainable start. Play on Cleveland.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Warriors/Rockets.

We’ve made a play on the UNDER in each of the last two games, but we’re expecting a classic “shootout” between these offensive minded clubs in Game 5. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based on common sense and strong O/U ATS stats. The Rockets have done a good job defending the perimeter for the most part in this series, but just like their Game 2 loss, the Warriors would make adjustments and get the open looks they wanted in their amazing Game 3 beatdown victory. With the visitors putting an added emphasis onto the offensive end of the floor, the Rockets will also now look to match pace and “shoot out the lights.” Note as well that GS has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven after scoring less than 95 points in its previous outing, while the Rockets have seen the total go OVER the number in six of their last eight after holding their previous opponent to 95 points or less. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds.

Coors Field is the great equalizer for starting pitchers. Suffice it to say, we think that Jon Gray and the Rockies are completely overvalued in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (2-5, 5.62 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget by giving up six runs off eight hits with two strikeouts over 2.1 innings in a loss to San Francisco on Monday. Previous to that though Romano had posted a 3.38 ERA over his other started this year. Also note that Romano’s speed is almost unmatched in the league, as he was consistently hitting 95 MPH in the setback. Gray (4-6, 5.34) was rocked for five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to San Francisco as well in his latest outing. Gray has now been shelled for five or more runs in five of his ten starts and note that he’s been particularly horrible at home all year with a 2-3, 6.04 ERA record. We like Romano to out duel Gray. Great value, play on the REDS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves.

We think the hard-hitting Braves and Julio Teheran offer excellent value in this underdog role. Teheran (4-1, 4.17 ERA) posted an unsustainable 1.24 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 30 strikeouts over 29 innings, before then coming back down to Earth by allowing ten earned runs over his last 11 innings of work. Teheran has to be feeling confident in this spot though as note that he’s a super 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-1, 4.13) who gave up no runs off nine hits while striking out seven over 5.2 innings Sunday to earn a victory over Baltimore. Rodriguez has for the most part been sharp this year, we will however point out that he has a rather pedestrian 4.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. We think that Teheran can easily match pace with Rodriguez inning for inning and in a situation like that, we absolutely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Play on the BRAVES.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the LA Angels.

Luis Severino has been awesome for the Yankees so far this year, but we think that Andrew Heaney is being undervalued in this spot as we think the southpaw can match his surging counterpart inning for inning. Heaney (2-3, 3.35 ERA) most recently allowed four runs (none earned) off three hits and five walks with five strikeouts in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Heaney hasn’t been perfect, but his 10.5 K/9 and 57.1 percent ground ball rate over 40.1 innings of work suggests that his early strong numbers are sustainable moving forward. Severino (7-1, 2.35) gave up three earned runs off eight hits while walking two and striking out six over six innings in a victory over the Royals on Saturday. Note though that Severino would aloo ten base runners to reach. The Yanks are 31-15 this year, while LA is 27-22. As mentioned off the top, we think there’s great value on the hungry visiting side, as we look for Heaney to match pace with Severino inning for inning. Play on the ANGELS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Philadelphia Phillies.

We think this interleague matchup favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (1-0, 0.93 ERA) who looked pretty good in his first start of the year, going 5.1 scoreless against the A’s, allowing six hits and striking out six in a no-decision on Saturday. Last year Gaviglio was 4-5 with 4.36 ERA for KC, including just 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Zack Eflin (1-0, 1.56) who gave up two earned runs over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Cards on Saturday, allowing three hits while also striking out four. Eflin’s numbers continue to impress, now a 1.56 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 17.1 innings thus far. The book is still out on Gaviglio in our opinion, while Eflin shows no signs at all in slowing down. This line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the PHILLIES.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* MEMBER ONLY PLAY on the Chicago Cubs.

We have no issues pulling the trigger on a higher-priced fav if we think it’ll lay the hammer down from start to finish. And that’s exactly the case here. The visitors turn to the erratic Derek Holland (2-5, 4.94 ERA) who most recently allowed four earned runs off six hits over six innings to the Rockies on Friday. Holland has respectable numbers, but we think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The home side sends Kyle Hendricks (3-3, 3.40) who gave up four runs (three earned) off six hits while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against Cincinnati on Saturday. Hendricks was 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA last year and it would appear that he’s on pace to at least match those respectable numbers (also note that Hendricks owns a superb 2.60 ERA at home thus far this season.) Also note that San Fran is just 1-4 (-1.5 units) this season as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while Chicago is just 8-3 (+2 units) at home fav in the -175 to -250 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the CUBS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense. Clearly the Cavs will be risking life and limb to push for a Game 7. Home court has meant everything in this series and there’s no reason not to think that that strong trend won’t carry over here. Note as well that Boston is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 85 points or less in its previous contest, while Cleveland is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 when trailing in a playoff series. Lay the points, play on the CAVALIERS.

AAA Sports