Alex Smart

Notre Dame is the far superior team despite of Duquesne bing undefeated . The Irish deserve matchup  status as a hefty  favorite . Actually a  DD line is more appropriate and wth that said I  recommend we lay the lumber here. 

NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons.DUQUESNE is 16-30 ATS L/46 vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game.

CBB Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NOTRE DAME) - after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are 45-15 ATS L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play o Notre Dame to cover 

N.Illinois plays a methodical brand of football, that results in slow grinding low scoring games. 
N ILLINOIS is 9-2 UNDER in all games this season with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. More of the same sleepy action is on board tonight vs Western Michigan. 

N ILLINOIS is 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging  425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 ppg scored  . W MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER  after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons and  is 10-1 UNDER in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs,

CFB team against the total (W MICHIGAN) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Ohio State  Buckeyes are undefeated and ranked , as they come off an OT win vs Creighton and than a beat down of  South Carolina State. They did not suffer a letdown after that emotional win to Creighton but now Im betting in delayed  response here tonight vs underrated ( Samford) they will suffer an natural regression in energy levels.Samford (5-0), coached by former Kentucky player Scott Padgett might not be on they same level as Ohio State , but they work hard at both ends of the court and are well coached and can stay within this number. Look for Seven-footer Ruben Guerrero ( 17 ppg, 8.8 rpg), a native of Spain and a transfer from South Florida, to help lead  Samford to a cover.Four of five Samford starters have season scoring averages in double figures. Josh Sharkey is averaging 14.2 points and 7.8 assists per game.

SAMFORD is 11-1 ATS L/12  in road games after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games 

Take the points with Samford 

All my college Hoops selections ( Sides/Totals) are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and overall head to head team system and player vs player analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

Play UNDER

Cornell enters this tilt on a three-game road streak is the longest since 2012-13.

•  key Cog Morgan enters the week among the national leaders at 25.4 ppg. and 7.8 rpg. while adding 2.8 apg. and 1.6 spg. Matt Morgan's 56 consecutive double figure scoring games has surpassed John Sheehy's 34 straight (1953-55) for a school record that had held for 62 years.Look for him to lead the way in a Cornell cover vs UConn. 

• Morgan became the first Cornell player to declare early for the NBA Draft during the spring of 2017 (and again in 2018), withdrawing before the early entry deadline to preserve his final two seasons of eligibilityCONNECTICUT is 7-24 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.CONNECTICUT is 0-8 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more 3 straight games.CORNELL is 70-48 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog since 1997

CORNELL is 24-8 ATS  L/32 versus foul prone teams - called for 21 or more fouls/game. CONNECTICUT is 1-8 ATS versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 31%or less of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Home teams as a favorite or pick (CONNECTICUT) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more  on the season, after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent are 30-75 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cornell to cover 

NC State averaging 95.5 ppg  is going to explode offensively here tonight and St.Peters is going to have to chase them, or completely be embarrassed. This will result in a combined  score that eclipses this weak total. ST PETERS is 17-6 ATS L/23 in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 haveseen a combined average of 149.2. ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

GULF COAST SHOWCASE - Round 2 - Germain Arena - Estero, FL

Home court advantage puls a history of playing teams like Colorado State tough make FGCU a solid choice here.

FLA GULF COAST is 10-1 ATS L/11 versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots. FLA GULF COAST is 7-0 ATS L/7 vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game.


Neutral court teams as an underdog (COLORADO ST) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game are 27-58 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Florida Gulf St

CANCUN CHALLENGE - Semifinals - Hard Rock Riviera Maya - Cancun, Mexico

Jacksonville State has lost 3 straight, and Western Carolina is 1-3.  Both may not inspire bettors, but from . system vs system and players vs players perspective as well as previous recent matchup comparisons  this game in a neutral court environment offers value with the underdog.  This one is all about the math, and overall long term edges . With that said, Im recommending we take the points. 

Play on Western Carolina 

Orlando enters this game with a hot hand from the field converting at more than 50% with their FGs in their L/3 games, but in the past this has been a signal for downturn in offensive efficiency and production as is evident by the following trend: ORLANDO is 13-3 UNDER in home games after 3 straight games where they made 50% of their shots with a combined average of 193 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Toronto enters this game off a fine defensive performance last time out, allowing the Bulls just 83 points, as they paid alot of attention to their stopping abilities  in transition .  That stronger defensive performance stemmed from criticism they received after suffering a previous loss to the Celtics, that saw some in the media call them soft defensively  and portray them as reverting back to their old ways under former HC Casey. The truth is the Raptors are a solid defensive team  ranking 6th in the league in efficiency, and With that said, Im expecting more of the same stopping action from the Raptors in the spot vs a Magic team ranked 21st in offense in the league behind a 21 st ranked pace..  

TORONTO is 17-4 UNDER  in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.1 ppg going on the board. ORLANDO is 24-12 UNDER  versus good passing teams, averaging 23  or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg getting scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (TORONTO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 38-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

Brooklyn  a team the this lost 4 of their L/5 overall is not the same team without injured  G Caris LeVert in the lineup . He leads the Nets in scoring (18.4 points per game) but its expected out for net fe months. Now they will go against a very hungry and rested Miami team , desperate to get a win, after getting hammered by the LA Lakers on Sunday night  ( 113-97) for their fourth straight home loss. The media is attacking the team for their lack of grit, and believe me say pros do not like to be embarrassed and will be hell bent on getting some redemption tonight. 

MIAMI is 29-15 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, on Tuesday nights 110-23 SU L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average margin point differential going by 8+ ppg. 

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

Tonight we have a tilt at Madison Square Garden, that has mismatch written all over it and the lines-makers have followed suit by making the Portland Trail Blazers 8 point road chalk,   vs their hosts the  New York Knicks this Tuesday. However from a contrarian perspective, Im betting taking points with the home dog is prudent bankroll expanding choice vs a Portland team on tired legs as they play their 4th road game in less than a week. I know its not easy backing a rebuilding /struggling team like the Knicks that continue to give younger players minutes, but from a advantage players viewpoint, this line is slightly bloated and offers value according to my power rankings numbers.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

The Matadors lost a emotional roll coaster at home last Saturday. After leading by as many as 18 points in the second half, the Matadors were unable to hold off Portland down after the stretch as the Pilots came out with a hard fought  80-77 victory at The Matadome. Now in a emotional letdown spot Im betting Tennessee State takes advantage of this hosts low energy levels  and get us a victory and a winning ticket. 

TSU is 1-0 in the all-time series versus CSUN, beating the Matadors in overtime 75-72 at a tournament in Las Vegas, Nov. 2006.

CS-NORTHRIDGE is 0-9 ATS  after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. CS-NORTHRIDGE is 4-19 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons which happened last time out. CS-NORTHRIDGE  is 3-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Gottfried is 7-18 ATS in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 in all games he has coached since 1997

CS-NORTHRIDGE is 5-15 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons and 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE ST is 34-17 ATS L/51 in road games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game .

CBB Home teams as an underdog or pick (CS-NORTHRIDGE) - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 21-52  ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE ST) - after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games are 72-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee State 

Oregon calling card is based on playing sound defensive ball, and so far after 4 games have allowed an average of 61.5 ppg on the season , and in their two home games this season have allowed 57 and 47 points respectively (52 ppg). More of the same sound transitional  hoops will be on tonights agenda is a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the Total. 

OREGON is 14-1 UNDER in home games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 134.2 ppg going on the board.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (Oregon /WI-GREEN BAY) - good free throw shooting team from last season - made 72% or more of their free throws, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 97-55 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER