Alex Smart

The Red Sox will send left-hander fire baller James Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) to the hill in the series opener. He allowed one run and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds last week. Paxton had pitched a total of 21 2/3 innings in his  previous three seasons due to a number of injuries, but looks now to be back in top form and health. He has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his first four outings this season, while recording 27 strikeouts in 19 innings and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well against the light hitting guardians.BOSTON is 18-4  against the money line vs. sub standard power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.

Note:Cleveland starting right-hander Shane Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA), enters this game in a bit of a funk after allowing seven runs over four innings against the Baltimore Orioles last week.Bieber has  recorded a  3-3 record along with a bloated 5.50 ERA in six career tilts  (five starts) vs. BoSox and is fade material here today.The Red Sox offense rank  top-eight  against right-handed pitching.

Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day.

Guardians are 1-11 in their last 12 Tuesday games.

Red Sox are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win 

 My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play on the Sky to cover

I know both these offenses have been less than consistent this season, but my pitcher vs power rankings suggest this Totals line offers value for over bettors based on my projections that suggest runs output to be closer to  8.3 . Seattles starting pitcher GILBERT is 15-4 OVER  in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. 

Padres starting right handed  hurler  MUSGROVE is 16-6 OVER  at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.6 rpg scored. 

Over is 21-6 in Mariners last 27 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter like Musgrove.

SEATTLE is 16-4 OVER  vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored.

SEATTLE is 21-9 OVER after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.3 rpg scored. 

Over is 15-5-1 in Padres last 21 vs. American League West.Over is 33-15-3 in Padres last 51 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.

MLB Road teams (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100   or better over his last 10 games are 37-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored. 

Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego.

Play over

Seattles starter GILBERT is 15-4  against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) GILBERT is 9-1) against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). GILBERT is 19-7 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Padres are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Seattles starter Gilbert. Im betting Gilbert has a decent night, vs a    Padres squad that has the seventh-lowest scoring offense in the majors, averaging 4.10 runs per game while rankings) 21st in OPS+ 96. 

I know the Mariners are not much better, but it must be noted the Padres starter Musgrove,  is just  3-10  against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse in his career. (Team's Record)SEATTLE is 25-10  against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons. 

Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League West.Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 games following an off day.Mariners are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.

SAN DIEGO is 6-12  against the money line in home games in night games this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%) are 37-13 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Mariners