Alex Smart

The Knicks defeated the Miami Heat last time out, and now with momentum on their sides Im betting they will be competitive once again here tonight vs a Clippers side on tired legs as they play their 5th straight road game.

Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Clippers are  1-5 ATS  in 1/1 rest situations  vs non-conference opposition. 

Knicks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NEW YORK is 46-28 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Clippers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Miami has defeated the Bucks twice already this season in physical lower scoring  altercations, and Im betting nothing changes today. Miami won 108-102 and 111- 95 and a rinse and repeat type of score is being projected by me for this spot play. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-3 UNDER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.4 ppg scored.MILWAUKEE is 8-1 UNDER   after 4 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 215.1 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER  against Central division opponents this season with a combined average of 205.3 ppg scored. MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER after playing 3 consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 8-1 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.MIAMI is 18-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 211.7 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Dallas behind the 29th ranked  pace in the league  and 7th best ppg D, will be primed to slow down the run and gun Golden State Warriors tonight as road underdogs. This results in a lower scoring game than many of the pundits might expect. On the flipside the Warriors viable 3 point D, will also highlight this lower than expected combined score. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 UNDER  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 32-8 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Hofstra is lazy around the rim and are often outworked which is  not a good omen against a side like Stoney Brook who are exact opposite around the basket with the height to get the job done. Im betting on the visitors to smash and grab their way to a cover on a bloated line.

Play on Stoney Brook to cover

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

This may not be one of Gonzaga's best  teams, but they are still explosive offensively eclipsing the 100 point plateau 6 times this season behind one of College Hoops top players, Drew Timme. They must not be underestimated, vs a strong Saint Marys side, that is coming off a grueling game against USF last time out that seen them win late with a hard to believe shot. This is a huge letdown situation for the Gaels at an inopportune time. Few is 51-37 ATS  as an underdog as the coach of GONZAGA with the average ppg diff clicking in at -2.9. Advantage Gonzaga .

ST MARYS-CA is 17-35 ATS L/52 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better ) after 15 or more games. 

Play on Gonzaga to cover

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Kansas barley got by Iowa State at home in their first meeting this season 62-60 , but will now be hard pressed to get a cover here on the road vs a Iowa State program that is 5-0 ATS L/5 opportunities with same season revenge from a loss of 20 points or less. Also Kansas has played a tiring schedule of late against top tier opposition and now could easily find the grind very rough vs a tenaciously physical Iowa State side that has won the rebound battle in 8 straight tilts. Iowa State is a perfect 12-0 this season at the Hilton Coliseum and Im betting will hit lucky 13 here today vs the visiting Jayahwks.

IOWA ST is 13-5 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better) over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +2.3 . 

Play on Iowa State to cover

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Home court advantage will be Im betting the decisive edge between two evenly matched sides.Clemson owns. a perfect 12-0 100%  record this season at Littlejohn Coliseum. Meanwhile, Miami is 0-12 SU playing in this venue since becoming an ACC member. 

CLEMSON is 13-2 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +5.4 ppg.CLEMSON is 12-3 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +3.6 .

Clemson to win

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My projections estimate a combined score of 155 points giving us a almost full 2 possession edge on this number.

MIAMI OHIO is 9-2 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 164.9 ppg scored.

OHIO U is 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 160.6 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MIAMI OHIO) - after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 30-4 OVER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER