Alex Smart Alex Smart
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Alex Smart Sports- MLB Best Bet Triple Play ( 2 ML/1 Total)

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Oct 02, 2022
Red Sox vs Blue Jays
Blue Jays
-1½ +110 at William Hill
Won
$110
Play Type: Premium

Blue Jays are crushing the BoSox this season going  15-3 against the bean town  crew. They’ve won eight consecutive tilts in the season series by a combined score of 77-22  count and Im betting that run wont end today behind a offense that has been on fire -Toronto’s owns  .828 OPS over the last 15 days which ranks second in MLB and will also  help power this total to be eclipsed . 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Oct 02, 2022
Red Sox vs Blue Jays
OVER 7½ +105 Won
$105
Play Type: Premium

Blue Jays are crushing the BoSox this season going  15-3 against the bean town  crew. They’ve won eight consecutive tilts in the season series by a combined score of 77-22  count and Im betting that run wont end today behind a offense that has been on fire -Toronto’s owns  .828 OPS over the last 15 days which ranks second in MLB and will also  help power this total to be eclipsed . 

Jays starter GAUSMAN is 17-7 OVER after giving up 2  or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.2 rpg scored. 

Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 games following a loss.

Note: Wacha the Red Sox starter has looked tired of late, and Im betting the explosive Jays bats take advantage of the veterans fatigue and make is 14 overs in 19 meetings this season vs Bo/sox. The last time the Jays faced Wacha back in late June, they smashed him for four runs in a 6-5 win - rinse and repeat and with extra mustard added on in the rematch.

Play OVER

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 02, 2022
Bills vs Ravens
Ravens
+3½ -115 at Ace
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The Ravens must not be underestimated   in this tilt vs a top tier  Buffalo side  as they are, averaging 33 points and 380.3 yards per game behind the arm and legs  of QB  Jackson, and a over powering offensive line. 

Baltimore's HC John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS in his last eight games as a home underdog, going  5-0 ATS in his L/5 opportunities . 

BALTIMORE is 37-21 ATS against AFC East division opponents.BALTIMORE is 5-1 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992 at home. 

It must be noted that \NFL Home dogs with a moneyline in the +125 to +155 own a strong  23-11 (68%) conversion rate  straight dating back 17 seasons. 

NFLFavorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are are 12-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 02, 2022
Cardinals vs Panthers
OVER 43½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Arizona is 4-0 OVER L4 vs Carolina with a combined average of 51 ppg going on the scoreboard ---  Arizona is also 10-1 OVER  L11 vs NFC South  with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored.  Panthers are 7-0 OVER  L7 vs NFC West  with a combined average of 55.1 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 games in Week 4.

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Oct 02, 2022
Mets vs Braves
Braves
-124 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.29 ERA) is expected take the hill for the Braves against Chris Bassitt (15-8, 3.27) in a battle of veteran right-handers. 

The Braves now have a one-game lead with four games to go and now with blood in the water Im betting on Atlanta to keep rolling tonight against a slumping rival. ATLANTA is 13-3  against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better ) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  SNITKER is 26-16  against the money line in October games as the manager of ATLANTA.

NY METS are 26-40  against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Braves are 41-12 in their last 53 home games

MLB Home teams (ATLANTA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better) (NL), after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games are 46-19 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Mets are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta.

Play on Atlanta to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 02, 2022
Browns vs Falcons
Browns
-1 -112 at linepros
Lost
$112.0
Play Type: Premium

Browns lead the league in Time of Possession this season (35:36) and are capable of hitting back via the pass game with under rated QB Brissett  or the  run game behind vaunted RB Chubb. Brissett has given up just one interception in 92 passes so far this season.

They have won the stats battle in all 3 of their games and deserve respect here to cash for on the road vs a over rated Atlanta side. Note: The Browns are 5-0 ATS L/5 non conference road tilts. 

Atlanta is 0-8 SUATS versus the AFC North last 8 seasons , while the Browns are  7-0 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC South.

Smith is 0-6 ATS  in home games after playing their last game on the road as the coach of ATLANTA.ATLANTA is 2-18 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

The Browns own a 12-3 lead in the all-time series, including a 28-16 home win in the teams' last meeting on Nov. 11, 2018. Rinse and repeat situation on board. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 02, 2022
Chiefs vs Bucs
Bucs
+1½ -110 at William Hill
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

I  have a great deal of respect for KC and Patrick Mahomes but tonight Im betting against them on the road in Tampa Bay against QB Tom Brady and company. I know  three-time NFL MVP has thrown for just 673 yards and three touchdowns in three games after setting franchise records in both categories last season (5,316, 43) but like a thoroughbred off a long lay off , he will be now ready  with the rust worm off to perform at an optimal output here on national tv in the Sunday night spot light event. Note: Brady is 11-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his illustrious career. 

Chiefs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Chiefs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Buccaneers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game arem24-56 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

 The New York Jets secondary has  allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt at 7.5 per pass and Im betting even the much maligned QB Trubisky cannot do some downfield damage here this Sunday.Opposition QBs  have eclipsed  this offered Total in two of three games against the Jets and a rinse and repeat situation is a high probability event. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 02, 2022
Browns vs Falcons
UNDER 48½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

These two teams run the ball more than they pass it and are ranked in the top 5 in that category. With that said, I expect alot of time consuming running plays to eat up the clock and for a lower scoring very physical  type affair to be played. I know the Falcons have gone over in 3 straight games, all covers, but it must be noted that NFL home teams off 3 or more ATS victories  that  saw them  go ‘OVER the Total are 0-6 to the under the L/5 seasons.

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons of 37.3 ppg scored.

Cleveland has also gone over in 3 straight but regression here is an expected outcome according to my projections. Note: AFC away chalk  of  1 or more  points  like the Browns  have seen 16 of their L/17 tilts go UNDER  versus any NFC opponent  when the totals offering is  54 points or less. Clevelands last 21 games vs  NFC South division opponents has seen a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 02, 2022
Washington Commanders vs Cowboys
Washington Commanders
+3½ -121 at linepros
Lost
$121.0
Play Type: Premium

Dallas QB Rush has played well in wins over the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants but Im betting he has a lapse here vs a D that my rankings suggest matchup well against him and the Dallas O line!  

I know the Commanders experienced a nasty day  in last week's 24-8 loss to Philadelphia, but this is a better side than that score would indicate and Im betting they will be ready to get some redemption in a motivated bounce back situation. 

Washington's QB  Wentz has a history of success against the Boyz. In eight career starts against the men from Dallas , and  has  garnered 14 touchdowns and a career passer rating of 95.7. He will be key again and give us the edge to cover. 

WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return . Rivera is 22-10 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached.

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 3-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.