Alex Smart

NIT - Second Round

Nebraska has recently impressed me with their  play, and after watching them beat Butler, last time out look very much a like a viable dark horse underdog in this tournament and today as dogs.  Meanwhile, TCU has gone 9-12 after a 12-1 start.From a data stats standpoint these are evenly matched teams. Nebraska is 48th in the NET while TCU is 52nd. The Huskers are 43rd in KenPom while TCU is 49th. TCU's strength of schedule is 45th while Nebraska's is 47th. Thus taking points here is avery viable investment option. 

NEBRASKA is 12-1 ATS  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NEBRASKA is 17-8 ATS  versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.NEBRASKA is 17-8 ATS  versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Nebraska to cover 

Texas converted 15-of-38 (39.5-percent) from three-point range during Tuesday's first-round win against South Dakota State and Im betting that will buoy them in a favorable matchup vs Xavier here today. 

TEXAS is 22-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread .TEXAS is 22-6 ATS  in home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread 

CBB favorite (TEXAS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 97-58 L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable for tonight and if he plays could see limited time thanks to some less than serious nagging ankle issues.The Bucks suffered another setback Saturday night with reports that center Pau Gasol will miss the rest of the regular season with an injured left ankle. This could take away  from the Bucks flow tonight which will directly effect overall offensive output, which in turn will help keep this score at the lower end of the spectrum. Also considering that the Bucks own the leagues No.1 defensive efficiency rate , a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in pace and and 29th in offensive output could easily find themselves dragging along here in a sleeper game than many expect.

MILWAUKEE is 11-3 UNDER versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 11-1 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Detroit HC Dwane Casey exhausted his starters   in a game that started late last night. The Pistons then had to make the 90-minute flight into the San Francisco Bay Area, finally getting settled well into the morning on a day in which they're scheduled for an early (5:30 p.m. Pacific) start. The Pistons now on tired legs and dealing with unfortunate scheduling just wont be up to playing the physical brand of D, thye need to to be able to slow the Warriors down. Im betting on Golden State off a ugly 91 point output last time out to  really rev things up here and to put a boatload full of points on the board in a game I have pegged to go over the total. 

DETROIT is 7-0 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. with a combined average o f223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more are 38-12 OVER L/5  seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten game are 122-80 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

I was waiting to see if LeBron James was going to play tonight for the Lakers and now that he is probable Ill pull the trigger on a over bet. Sacramento and LAL both are both fast paced teams with the Lakers ranking 4th and the Kings ranking 1st. With that said, Im betting on these sides coming at each other with a full head of steam and combine for total score that eclipses this number.

The Lakers beat the Kings 121-114 here on Dec 30 this season.SACRAMENTO is 12-4 OVER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 239 ppg scored. In the two most recent meetings in this series this season these teams scored an average of 234 ppg. 

Play OVER 

The Pacers are leagues No.1 team in ppg allowed at 104.2 and own the 23rd ranked pace and just 22nd in offence  and base all their successes and failures on their D and nothing will change tonight against a Denver team that is extremely tired as they play their 3rd road game in 4 days. Im betting on the Pacers defensive prowess and the Nuggets tired legs to contribute a muted total score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 
INDIANA is 7-0 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored.McMillan is 15-4 UNDER  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored.

NBA home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 154-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 51-18 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNDER 

 NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

We all know the elite transition offence that Duke has lead by Zion Williamson. Also Duke has been a power house all season long from inside the arc, accumulating the 21st highest 2 point scoring conversion rate in the nation at 55.7% , and even with  7 "6 Taco Fall in the paint Im betting will still do a fair amount of damage offensively. On the flip side, the Blue Devils have have struggled in a 2 point defensive conversion rates allowing the 14th highest 2 [point scoring rate in the nation at 55.1%. Both these teams can play D, and both have similar length, but Im betting that the line is still just a tad to low and offers value to the over at up to 145. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UCF) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or less), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 50-23 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Alot of the public perceives the Washington Huskies as a slower paced defensive team, but when pushed as was the case against Utah State last time out, they can really rev up their pace. TodayIm expecting North Carolina to have a lot of offensive possessions thanks to their superior offensive rebounding ( Huskies rank 345th in the nation in O rebounding) .With that said look for the  Huskies to have to run and gun to keep up here in a game the linesmakers expect will be a white wash favouring N.Carolina. 

WASHINGTON is 10-2 L/12 OVER in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season after 15+games  with a combined average score of 158.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

Teams like Oklahoma and Virginia that play at a pace of 65 or less have gone under the total 61%+ of the time since the 2005 season.

OKLAHOMA is 12-4 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season. 

 Neutral court teams against the total (OKLAHOMA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63  or less PPG), after a combined score of 165 points or more are 73-34 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

These teams played each other earlier this season with VTEch winning and both know what to expect. HC McKay of Liberty is  a former Virginia assistant,  and implements UVa’s Pack Line defense. Also heres a hint at what I expect as quoted from a Liberty players: QUOTE: “We’ll just try to play our style of basketball and not get lured into playing their style, … try not to get into more of an uptempo game,” END QUOTE: Flames guard Lovell Cabbil Jr. said. The Hokies focus defensively on keeping teams out of the paint and forcing foes to beat them from 3-point range and thats not easy, thus I can see this game staying on the lower side of the number.

My projections based on both teams systems suggests a score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 LIBERTY is 7-1 UNDER  after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season.

VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 UNDER in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons

VIRGINIA TECH is 83-59 UNDER in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game since 1997. 

Play on the UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Tennessee looked wobbly in their win vs Colgate last time out, and if that form continues here today they could find themselves on the sidelines after this the final buzzer goes off. Meanwhile, Iowa looked to be in top form against Cincinnati upsetting the Bearcats as underdogs to advance to the 2nd round. Note: IOWA is 11-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

At the end of the this season, Tennessee was starting to look vulnerable going just 7-4 SU and had failed to cover 8 of their L/12 and are not as potent looking as they were earlier in the season. Dont get me wrong their still a talented group, but as far as this line is concerned Im betting it slightly bloated thanks in part to their public popularity. With that said, lets take the points with a Iowa team that is currently in top form.

Barnes is 12-22 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games as the coach of TENNESSEE. 

Play on Iowa to cover 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK

 The Cougars looked good at the start of this NCAA tourney as  they took a 84-55 win over Georgia State . That kind of dominance will not come as easily vs Ohio State, a team that despite of struggling to score showed their ability to stand tall  defensively against Iowa State and advance . Tonight Im betting on this being a very physical closely contested battle, with alot of action in the paint, and under the glass.  

HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS L/12  as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

 Ohio State are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

Holtmann is 13-4 ATS in road games in non-conference games in all games he has coached. 

CBB team (OHIO ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 148-92 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Ohio State to cover