Alex Smart

The Nuggets' looked impressive last time out vs a top tier  Philadelphia 76ers club. They came back in  spectacular fashion as they erased a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to take a 100-97 victory and improve to 6-2 for the season.This is a top quality team that matches up very well vs a up trending but not quite ready prime time Minnesota side. 

Nuggets are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Minnesota.

Timberwolves are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Timberwolves are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The defending champion Toronto Raptors take on the   Lakers in Los Angeles on Sunday short handed with injuries. Two of their top performers went down with injuries in the club's win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday.Guard Kyle Lowry, the Raptors' second-leading scorer at 21.8 points per game, sustained a fracture in his left thumb in the first quarter, and forward Serge Ibaka went down with a severe right ankle sprain in the second quarter. Considering this , Im betting their flow will be disrupted, and knowing that they cant run and gun with the explosive Lakers tonight, a more defensive physical posture will be implemented by the coaching staff which will help keep this tilt on the lower side of this total. 

NBA team (LA LAKERS/TORONTO) - in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better), on Sunday games are 40-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Anaheim is on 5 days rest and very fresh for this game against visiting Edmonton. Anaheim is 5-0 in its last five home games against opposition with a above 500 record like the Oilers. The Ducks are also 6-2 in their last eight games against Pacific Division opponents and are 9-3 straight up in its last 12 home games overall and get my support here this evening. Anaheim's fresh legs and top tier goal tending behind John Gibson who has recorded a 2.55 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage this season will be the difference maker.  Note Gibson has been lights out at home recording a .941 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA at the Duck Pond. 

Anaheim is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Edmonton. 

Play on Anaheim to win on the ML

 Central Michigan has 3 returning starters while Miss Valley State has no returning starters. MVS lost their first two games, by landslide scores to Iowa State (110-74) and Utah (143-49). MISS VALLEY ST is 1-9 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half . Meanwhile,Central Michigan smashed MICHIGAN-DEARBORN by a 102-62 count in their opener. Davis is 16-3 ATS after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of C MICHIGAN. Bottom line: While I do not expect a record setting 94 point margin of victory  like the Utes layed down on the Delta Devils, but  I do  like Central Michigan to dominate  behind a very well balanced offense  that ranks 31st in offensive efficiency and a defence that works hard to get better. Mississippi Valley State ranks 346th in defensive efficiency since last season and rank 274th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.208). The Chippewas rank 45th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.190). Advantage Central Michigan. 

CBB Road underdogs of 20 or more points (MISS VALLEY ST) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a combined score of 175 points or more are 7-29 ATS L/22 seasons for go against conversion rate of 81% with the average ppg diff clicking in at 34.8 ppg.

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

The Canucks have cooled off after a red hot 8-1-1 stretch, sliding to 1-2-2 in their past five games after a 4-1 loss in Winnipeg on Friday night, and Im betting on the regression continuing here tonight against the NJ Devils. I know the Devils are highly inconsistent and on a 2 game losing streak, but from a matchup perspective according to my power rankings matchup well vs the Canucks. Before their negative Alberta run in Calgary and Edmonton, the Devils had allowed the fewest high-danger scoring chances and fifth-fewest expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

NEW JERSEY is 5-0-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons including wins in their L/2 visits here.

Home teams against the money line (VANCOUVER) - off a road loss by 2 goals or more against opponent off an embarrassing road loss where they were shut out are 47-67 L/22 seasons for a 59% conversion rate!

Play on the NJ Devils to win on the ML

Two struggling teams the NY Jets and NY Giants co tenants of their facility will go head to head here this week, in a game I have pegged as a pickem , thus getting points with the underdog Jets is a value play. Taking the Jets is just the lesser of two evils, but from a mathematical standpoint a prudent decision in my opinion in a game that could easily be won with a late FG. 

NFL team (NY JETS) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 64-28 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover 

 Ben Rothlisberger was forced to the sidelines earlier this season, with a nasty elbow injury  but the Steelers have found a way to jell behind  backups  Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph and find themselves in a hunt for a play off spot .  It must also be noted that  Mike Tomlin is   9-2-3 ATS as a home pup, and also  10-5 SUATS against the NFC West, including 6-1 SUATS a home. Meanwhile, the Rams do not have a great history vs the AFC North going  1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS against .500 or better opposition .

Steelers  as  hosts when coming off a win and facing an opponent coming off consecutive wins like the Rams , are 11-0 SUATS versus non-division opposition.

NFLFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent offensive team (370 or better YPG) against a team with a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) are 10-59 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win are 12-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 7-27 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover 

 This side investment option is based on a simple premise , that the Ravens after this huge prime time win vs the Patriots last Sunday night will be immensely hungover as they take on Cincinnati this week. Meanwhile, Cincinnati  rested and off a bye week and a new QB under center (Ryan Finely) is not as bad as their winless record would indicate, and have shown flashes of being very competitive. The Bengals lost 23-17 at Baltimore earlier this season, and will be primed to pull of an upset in the rematch and extend a positive 9-3 ATS run L/12 in this series. Note: Teams that have defeated a Super Bowl Champ in their L/game, are 7-25 SUATS in division contests going all the way back to 1980.   Also froma . team specific trend shows teams that beat the Patriots and then open as a 7+ point favorite  in their following tilt are 0-8 ATS dating back 16 seasons. 

Key injury update: Bengals A.J. Green is expected to make his season debut on Sunday. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a struggling team (25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 67-26 ATS L/36 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

These are two teams that have polar opposite records, with the Bills registering a 6-2 record while the Browns are at 2-6. However, the truth is the Browns are a talented team with a QB with a big arm in Baker Mayfield are highly under rated .  Note: The Browns have played a much tougher schedule than the Bills, their six losses coming against teams that are a combined 35-17, including 8-0 San Francisco, 8-1 New England and 7-2 Seattle. Cleveland’s roster includes 10 starters who are first- or second-round draft picks, either by the Browns or other teams and despite of some big name media clowns on their sidelines(not going to mention names) they are a team that can get things done if pressured like they are right now in their current form making them dangerous and motivated opponents for the Bills this Sunday.Add to that the activation of running back Kareem Hunt from a 8 game suspension and we have ignitor fuel to bet into. 

  Buffalo is over rated , having played the weakest schedules to date, behind the flimsy arm of quarterback Josh Allen who owns the 28th ranked  passer rating and a defence that has had its run D exposed of late.The Bills’ six wins this season have come against opponents whose combined record is 9-42. Four wins have come vs. 0-8 Cincinnati, 1-8 Washington, 1-7 Miami and the 1-7 New York Jets.

The Bills are 0-15 ATS/SU L/15 on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

BUFFALO is 9-21 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 45-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover 

The hard luck Buccaneers are off back to back losses at Seattle and at Tennessee, respectively, the past two weeks both times in OT. If this was a college team , I would bet they would be emotionally drained, but pros are pros for a reason and they react to adversity a lot different than kids. With that said, Im betting on a top tier effort this week from the Bucs here at home vs a Arizona side travelling from west to east and off a hard fought 28-25 loss against the 49ers last week in prime time. Im betting the Cards are the ones with the emotional hangover , and not the Bucs. Note: Im sure HC Bruce Arians has had this game circled for a while against his old team, and will be well prepared. 

Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Cardinals are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November.

Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Buccaneers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

NFL Road teams (ARIZONA) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs are 5-25 ATS L/36 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, after the first month of the season are 102-62 L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

This looks like a complete mismatch because of the opposite trajectories each of these teams has taken this season. However, it must be noted that New Orleans as a DD home favorite vs division opponents at home  is just 3-12 ATS L/15  and 0-6 ATS versus sub .200 opponents. Meanwhile , the Falcons are 5-1 ATS l in their L/6 as  double-digit dogs, as well  and are 22-3 ATS in this series when they enter with a win percentage of .625 or less.With that said, lets  be brave, take the points on what my projections estimate is a mathematical advantage. 

NFL Road teams (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NF LRoad underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-13 ATS L/36 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons 

Minnesota lost in a hard fought OT  game last night to Denver and will now be on tired legs and a letdown spot. Advantage Detroit Pistons with  two days rest. 

Favorite is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

The Pistons are 11-0 ATS /SU when they won 4+ straight meetings vs current opponent.

The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS SU  as a dog after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points last game.

Play on Detroit to cover 

Towson looks to have a special group this season, and  leads the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) in scoring defense (44.5), field goal percentage defense (31.6), 3-point field goal percentage defense (21.1), rebounding (26.0), blocked shots (4.5), steals (13.0), scoring margin (+41.5), rebounding margin (+15.0) and turnover margin (+11.0).Towson is 2-0 for the first time since 2016 and get my support here vs Kent State.Towson is averaging 16 assists in its two games.The Tigers have scored 40 points in three consecutive halves.The Tigers averaged 1.351 points per possession against Bryn Athyn. Gibson has scored 24.2 percent of Towson's 95 bench points.

Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Golden Flashes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.

KENT ST is 0-7 ATS  at road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Towson to cover

Ottawa has allowed 2 goals or less in 6 of their L/9 games and have taken part in 3 straight low scoring affairs that have failed to eclipse the total. Meanwhile, Carolina the Senators hosts tonight have been struggling to score finding the back of the net with 2 or less goals in 7 of their 11 overall, and have also gone under in 3 straight games, all three of which were losses. Needless to say this is the kind of game that has lower scoring tilt written all over it. 

CAROLINA is 13-4 UNDER  in home games against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 gpg going on the board. 

CAROLINA is 8-1 UNDER  in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

NHL Road teams against the total (OTTAWA) - off a home win, a struggling team (30% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the first half of the season are 30-7 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate . 

Play UNDER

Boston enters this game of an upset underdog win on the road vs the San Antonio Spurs last time out by a 135-115 count  for their 7th straight win. They are currently in top form and a tough opponent for any team whether it is at home or on the road . Note: BOSTON is 13-2 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home favorites  (BOSTON) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 31-1 SU L/23 seasons with  a + 13.7 ppg diff. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover