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Alex Smart |
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Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. |
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NCAA-B | Nov 30, 2023 Liberty vs Florida Atlantic |
Liberty +8 -110 at circa |
Lost $110.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. FAU is a top ranked team, but this balanced Liberty side is being highly underestimated in their abilities to hang here, vs FAU as Kenpom ranks them 39th in the country.Unbeaten Liberty received seven votes in this week's AP Poll, the second straight week the Flames have received seven votes. Im betting Liberty's slow tempe will pull FAU out of their flow and make this a grinding game that favors the visitors. LIBERTY is 21-8 ATS L/29 after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games . CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LIBERTY) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (40-42.5%), dominant rebounding team (+6 or more reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 38-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Liberty to cover |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NHL | Nov 30, 2023 Golden Knights vs Canucks |
Golden Knights +112 at circa |
Won $112 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
The Vegas Knights have not played optimally of late, as is evident by 3 straight losses, but because of that we are getting value on this money-line offering from the books. Meanwhile, Vancouver continues to play solid hockey and have won 8 of 10 home games but according to my power rankings do not match up well vs the defending Stanley Cup champion Knights. Note : The road side has won 5 of the L/6 in this series. VEGAS is 15-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. NHL Road teams against the money line (VEGAS) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, with a winning record in the first half of the season are 33-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Vegas to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NHL | Nov 30, 2023 Stars vs Flames |
UNDER 6 +100 |
Lost $100.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
The Stars generally play a tight defensive system that has seen them allow more than 3 goals just two times in their L/11 games overall. One of those 2 games saw Calgary score 7 goals in a loss, and here today in the rematch Im betting on a more concerted defensive effort from the Stars in a game that points towards a much lower scoring affair. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent of 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.4 gpg scored. NHL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, off a road win where they shut out their opponent are 31-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 4.6 gpg. Play on the under |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NHL | Nov 30, 2023 Panthers vs Canadiens |
UNDER 6½ -113 |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Florida enters this game on tired legs , and have had a hard time converting on offense. They take alot of shots but with a very low success rate of 8.6 percent ranks near the bottom of the league. Im betting their woes continue tonight against the Habs. On the flioside the Panthers D , and strong play of goaltenders Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz and a red hot stopping penalty-kill unit which is a perfect 20-for-20 on penalty kills over the past five games and 43-for-48 on the kill over the past 16 games makes this contest vs Montreal a tilt that has a viable chance at staying under the total. Note: FLORIDA is 9-3 UNDER against excellent power play teams- scoring on 17.5% or better of their chances this season like the Canadiens. FLORIDA is 6-0 UNDER vs. division opponents this season with a combined average of 3.8 opg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (FLORIDA) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 23-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the combined average gpg ringing in at 5.2 . Play under |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NCAA-B | Nov 30, 2023 Creighton vs Oklahoma State |
Oklahoma State +8 -110 at YouWager |
Lost $110.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. We are getting value with the underdog here based on the fact that OSU has played the last three-and-half games without their most consistent offesnive threat – senior guard Bryce Thompson (14.3 ppg, 6/12 3pt) – but other weapons have emerged in his absence and they must not be disregarded as viable underdogs here at home.OSU has scored 90+ points in back-to-back games for the first time under Boynton and have the capabilities to had here as pups. OKLAHOMA ST is 31-8 ATS L/39 in home games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. McDermott is 27-46 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game as the coach of CREIGHTON. Play on Oklahoma state to cover |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NCAA-B | Nov 30, 2023 Fairleigh Dickinson vs Fordham |
Fairleigh Dickinson +11½ -110 at circa |
Lost $110.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB team (FARLEIGH DICKINSON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT shooting team (32% or less), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 12-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Fairleigh Dickinson to cover |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NFL | Nov 30, 2023 Seahawks vs Cowboys |
Seahawks +9½ -110 at Ace |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Because Dallas has been top form of late, and also because they are Americas team they are being over rated here vs the Seattle Seahawks a side that has won 3 of the L/4 meetings vs the Boyz including 4 straight covers. I know Seattle has not performed optimally of late, and lost their last two games both as pups but it must be noted Seahawks teams are 10-0 ATS L/10 when losing consecutive tilts as underdogs. Carroll is 20-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 20-10 ATS against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE. DALLAS is 17-38 ATS L/55 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 12-32 ATS L/5 seasons for. a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Seattle to cover |
SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |
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