Alex Smart

The Celtics looked tired in flat last time out in a 115-83 loss to the Raptors. Im now expecting a much more focused effort that will  see Boston playing alot more basketball in transition while paying attention to this defensive play which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the offered number. BOSTON in their L/18 games after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have seen a combined average  of 202.6 ppg. Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 16-5 in Rockets last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 34-16-1 in Rockets last 51 home games.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, team that had a losing record last season are 24-5 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 207 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 40-14 UNDER  L/25 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 219.4 ppg scored.

16 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996 here in Houston. 

Play UNDER

Blackhawks are 0-4-1 and now in desperation mode for a win. I still believe in this group and are much deeper down the middle than alot of teams in the west. On the flipside, the Red Wings  have not faired well vs the Blackhawks losing 6  of eight matchups with Detroit last season including 5 of 6 here in Chicago. Also with the Red Wings  playing a back-to-back  and 4 games in 6 nights and are at a disadvantage vs a hungry side.

Blackhawks are 16-5 in their last 21 vs. Atlantic. Blackhawks are 8-3 in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest.

Red Wings are 10-51 in their last 61 games as a road underdog.Red Wings are 6-21 in their last 27 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation.

Play on Chicago to win 

After last weeks back and forth tilt vs the Dallas Cowboys that saw New England lose to the Cowboys in OT, Im betting on a huge letdown performance from the Pats here this week vs the lowly Jets, Also according to my power rankings the Jets are not as bad as their record suggests and are more than capable of hanging tough here and pulling off the upset. 

NFL Road teams (NY JETS) - with a struggling offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 39-14 ATS L/38 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play on the NY Jets ( LATE STEAM)

The Warriors are much improved but Im also betting the Kings will uptrend as well and deserve respect here as home underdogs as they have thrived overall dating back to last season as underdogs cashing 10 of their L/14 games taking points. The Kings are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and have covered 4 straight vs the Warriors here in Sacramento and overall have cashed 9 of the L/10 tickets for their backers in this series. 

Play on Sacramento to cover 

The Texans have scored a total of 35 points in 4 games (8.75 ppg). Arizona has allowed an average of 18 ppg, and Im betting both these means to averages will continue. I know the Texans D, is atrocious and the Cards are putting up points in bunches, but Im betting Texas does everything possible to turn this into a grinding slow motion affair. On the flip-side Arizona is off a road underdog win last time out, and be in a letdown state here vs a side that Im sure they are not taking very seriously no matter what they say. Also after playing 3 of their L/4 games and at break neck speed this will be a spot where the Cardinals energy levels will be lower than usual which will relate to a slower event that may might expect. These are my expectations, and right or wrong Im betting this game with confidence to the under.

HOUSTON is 10-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game  with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. 

Note: undefeated non-division home teams like the Arizona Cardinal from GAME 5 and beyond  have gone a  0-11-1UNDER L/5 seasons  when the Totals offering is  45 or more. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog, after the first month of the season are 46-18 UNDER  L/38 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Detroit is ranked 28th  in scoring  in the NFL averaging  18.3 ppg and here against a solid Rams D, that output average will be further muted and have scored 17 or less points in 5 straight. That lack of productivity  Im betting will  help keep this combined score under the offered number. It must be noted that the LA Rams play at the rate in the NFL averaging just 59 plays per game. I expect a slower more deliberate game from the Rams after playing 2 consecutive  road games. Its takes time to use to home cooking so I dont expect them to be as explosive as usual. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons of 31.4 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40 ppg going on the board. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Cincinnati,  ranks dead last with  55.0 offensive plays per game on the road tied with other  two team this season. They will go against a Baltimore  team that likes to play fast at home ,with 68.7 plays per game on average . When averaging this out as compared to my defensive power ranking charts I come out of this with a mathematical advantage compared to the Totals number being offered based on my projected output. 

Taylor is 6-0 UNDER in road games off a non-conference game as the coach of CINCINNATI with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in road games vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21 or more  FD's per game  with a combined average of 38,3 ppg going on the board. 

Harbaugh is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after a win by 21 or more points as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 39.7 ppg scored. ( the Ravens won 34-6 vs the Chargers lat weak behind a tremendous defensive effort) BALTIMORE is 8-0 UNDER   vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

 The Colts after a slow 0-3 start have won 2 of their L/3 games, with the loss coming to Baltimore by a 31-25 count. This team and its current roster according to my power rankings is more than capable of hanging with a SF 49ers side that has a banged up QB (Jimmy Garoppolo ) at the helm of the offense that is playing at less than 100% when he is on the field. Advantage Colts to cover. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. NDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS  in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival, after the first month of the season are 31-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games are 28-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. ( This trend gives a decent probability of possible upset thus giving top tier value with taking points. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0/ATS 2-1 SU against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO in SAN FRANCISCO since 1992. 

Indianapolis to cover 

That was a big win for Rodgers and company last week against their long time rivals the  Bears and now Im expecting an emotional letdown situation to unfold for Green Bay giving us an advantage with taking points with the Washington football team. I know Washington has not looked good defensively, but they are still capable of slowing down the Packer train. Note: From a historical standpoint GREEN BAY is just  9-22 ATS   in home games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 6 yards/play or more .

Football Team are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Football Team are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Football Team are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Rivera is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached .Rivera is 20-8 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached

Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play on Washington to cover