Alex Smart

The LA Sparks travel out east to take on the Connecticut  Sun today in a game I'm betting favors the home side. The Sparks are 2-0 after beating the defending champion Lynx 77-76 in game 1 of their season and than blasting  Indiana by 17 points in the follow-up. With this being the Sparks  third straight road game of the season, I'm betting some fatigue could set in vs a strong and under rated Connecticut side that  absolutely annihilated the Las Vegas Aces, 101-65 in their opener .

CONNECTICUT is 17-7 ATS L/24 in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.CONNECTICUT is 15-5 ATS   when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last few seasons.CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS  L/17 after a combined score of 165 points or more dating back to last season. CONNECTICUT is 12-4 ATS L/16  after one or more consecutive overs .

LOS ANGELES is 31-50 ATS   off a road win by 10 points or more since 1997.Agler is 8-20 ATS   as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997

NBA Road favorites (LOS ANGELES) - excellent offensive team from last season - scored 75 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are 5-23 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 82% for bettors.

NBA Road favorites (LOS ANGELES) - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 72 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more are 8-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover

DYLAN BUNDY (R) vs. LUCAS GIOLITO (R)

Baltimore enters this tilt vs the White Sox experiencing a disappointing season to this point, while the Pale Hose have been exhibiting  an uptick in their performance date as they shake themselves out a funk off their own after having won 4 of their L/5 games and are off a 11-1 smash down of the O's yesterday. Baltimore will now send the supposed ace of their pitching staff right-hander Dylan Bundy (2-6, 4.70 ERA)  out to the hill to make his  11th start of the season. The  power pitcher  has really struggled of late as he mimics his teams lack of success. Since April 26, Bundy is 1-4 with a 9.41 ERA in five starts. He has allowed 23 earned runs in 22 innings, including  12 home runs and he  has given up at least three home runs in three of his past four starts. His mechanics are way off and he is  telegraphing his pitches, and once again looks like fade material vs a team that feeling a lot more confident of late and starting to heat up offensively.

BALTIMORE is 0-11  against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season.BALTIMORE is 0-10  against the money line after a 3 game span with an OBP of .260 or worse this season. BALTIMORE is 0-9  against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span this season. BALTIMORE is 8-23(against the money line against right-handed starters this season like White Sox Starter right-hander Lucas Giolito .
BALTIMORE is 1-10  against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 dating back to last season.BALTIMORE is 1-14  against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.

MLB All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against a decent starting pitcher (ER 4.20 to 4.70 or less) -AL, in May games are 44-28 L/5 seasons  for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by 10 runs or more are 33-15 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the moneyline

 Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The last two meetings in this series have stayed under by more than 20 points. At the start of this series I suggested that the series would be won by the team that exhibited the best ability to control the others explosive offense. I'm expecting both sides to be physical tonight when defending and for them to move the ball around a lot when in the offensive end , which will result in a lot of clock eating taking place which I'm betting will result in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers are obviously expecting. 
  
 The  Rockets have gone under 12 straight times with rest off a victory as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field,  and have gone under 13 straight times at home    when the line is within 3 of pick after a win in which they made fewer field goals than their opponent. 
  Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone under 8 straight times with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER  versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 201.7 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON is 21-8 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 209.2 ppg. HOUSTON is 13-3 UNDER  after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg getting scored. Houston's HC D'Antoni is 30-6 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored.

Golden States HC Kerr is 18-5 UNDER  L/23 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more with the combined average score clicking in at 209.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play UNDER
  
 
  
 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-

This is a big game, and neither of these teams want to make mistakes here. With that said, I'm betting on a methodical and  very physical game especially from the Celtics as they look to slow down the Cavaliers sometimes explosive offensive attack via newly implemented bigger lineup. But don't underestimate the Cavs ability to push back and push back hard as is evident by the following trends.Cleveland have gone under 16 straight times  with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field. In their last eight tilts  under those perimeters the Cavaliers have  allowed an average of just  90.9 ppg. 

BOSTON is 16-4 UNDER  in the 6th game of a playoff series since 1996 with the average combined score clicking in at 182.4 ppg. Boston has gone UNDER 10 straight times by an average of more 12 ppg  as a dog with rest after a game as a home favorite in which they scored a least 18 fast break points .

Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a straight up loss. Under is 11-4 in Cavaliers last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 90 points or less are 87-48 UNDER L/21 seasons for 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2


The young legs of the Boston Celtics and the top tier coaching of Brad Stevens, is having a huge impact on the Cleveland Cavaliers, who for the most part are the superior team on paper, but the least consistent, and tired looking of the two teams at the moment. The Celtics are just wearing the Cavaliers down, now with a bigger lineup, and even though I expect LeBron to come out and once again put on a show I'm betting it won't be enough to the Cavs a cover tonight. At the outset of this series, I thought the Cavaliers just had to much talent, for the young Celtics , but Stevens has assembled a special hardworking team, and their capable of an outright upset vs a Cavaliers side that is showing its age, and mental wear an tear of recent play off failures . I'm also remembering the game 7 tilt where they barely got by the Pacers and are lucky to be here. With that said, lets take the points with the Celtics .

CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 6-20 ATS after scoring 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 8-24 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. BOSTON is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season.BOSTON is 31-18 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season and v is 38-17 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-20 ATS failing to cover by just under 9 ppg with rest off a 10+ loss as a dog when they are facing a team that is drawing an average of less than 20.25 fouls per game.Cleveland is 0-17 ATS failing to cover by an average of 10.5 ppg at home off a road game in which Lebron scored at least 14 points fewer than he did in their previous game.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

JULIO TEHERAN (R) vs. EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)

After a pair of scoreless outings to start May, Teheran has given up 10 runs in his last two starts (11 innings), and his ERA jumped, from 3.14 to 4.17. He allowed a season-worst six runs in five innings against the Marlins during his previous start.He has not been great in two career outings against the Red Sox, one of them at Fenway, going 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA and yielding 19 hits in 13 1/3 innings. His ERA at Fenway is 8.53.The current Red Sox are a collective 14-for-40 (.350) with two homers against Teheran. Mookie Betts is 4-for-8 (.500), Brock Holt 3-for-6 (.500) with a homer and Xander Bogaerts 3-for-7 (.429).  look for the BoSox do some damage here in this spot and come close by themselves to eclipsing this Total. 

TEHERAN  in 6 games with  when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season has seen a combined average of 13.4 rpg scored.

Rodriguez  I believe is very over rated as was evident  last time out, giving up nine hits but no runs over 5 2/3 innings while throwing 110 pitches. He's not efficient, and teams like Atlanta I'm betting can take advantage of him. The lefty walked none and struck out  just seven. In 37 career starts at Fenway, Rodriguez is 10-9 with a 4.64 ERA. Atlanta has done their best offensive work vs LH starters this season averaging 6.3 rpg on a strong .288 team BA which includes 19 HRs and overall vs all pitching 37 HRS on the road so far this season. I'm betting The fans standing on the  Green Monster will get a workout here tonight.

Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 5-1-1 in Braves last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-0 in Teherans last 4 starts on grass

Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.Over is 5-2 in Rodriguezs last 7 home starts.Over is 7-3 in Red Sox last 10 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
SNITKER is 42-18 OVER  vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of ATLANTA with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored.

The Red Sox have gone OVER 10 straight imes by an average of 6 rpg as an unrested home favorite in a series opener after a loss as a road favorite in which they never led which happened yesterday .

Play on the OVER

SAM GAVIGLIO (R) vs. ZACH EFLIN (R)

Eflin  since being placed in the Phillies rotation has done well , but he showed some chinks in armour last time out as he struggled  vs the Cardinals. The Blue Jays have been inconsistent offensively , but according to my power rankings matchup well vs Eflin . Note: The Jays have averaged 5 rpg vs RHP like Eflin this season. It must also be noted that Eflin gave up eight earned runs, nine hits (three homers) and three walks against the Blue Jays on June 14, 2016 in MLB debut. Some of the effects of the PTSD he suffered after that set back might come into his head here this evening. Meanwhile, Gaviglio the Jays pitcher, has to small a sample size to really get a grasp of his overall form, but from scouting reports he is average at best and susceptible to being lit up by a Phillies offense that has scored an average of 5.1 rpg at home this season.

Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 14-2 in Blue Jays last 16 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 13-3 in Blue Jays last 16 vs. National League East.Over is 16-5 in Blue Jays last 21 interleague road games.

Over is 6-0 in Eflins last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.

The Phillies have gone over 14 straight times in the first game of a series with rest off a game as a favorite in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent.The Blue Jays have gone OVER 12 straight times  as a dog with no rest in a series opener when they are off a game as a dog and facing a team with a better record. Both trends went over by just under 5rpg.

TORONTO is 8-0 OVER L/8  in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.TORONTO is 9-1 OVER  against NL East opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 12.3 rpg scored.TORONTO is 10-1 OVER   in road games after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored.

Play OVER