Alex Smart

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

FAU is a top ranked team, but this balanced Liberty side is being highly underestimated in their abilities to hang here, vs FAU  as Kenpom ranks them 39th in the country.Unbeaten Liberty received seven votes in this week's AP Poll, the second straight week the Flames have received seven votes. Im betting Liberty's slow tempe will pull FAU out of their flow and make this a grinding game that favors the visitors.  LIBERTY is 21-8 ATS L/29 after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games .

CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LIBERTY) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (40-42.5%), dominant rebounding team (+6 or more  reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 38-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover

The Vegas Knights have not played optimally of late, as is evident by 3 straight losses, but because of that we are getting value on this money-line offering from the books. Meanwhile, Vancouver continues to play solid hockey and have won 8 of 10 home games but according to my power rankings do not match up well vs the defending Stanley Cup champion Knights. Note : The road side has won 5 of the L/6 in this series. VEGAS is 15-5 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons.

NHL Road teams against the money line (VEGAS) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, with a winning record in the first half of the season are 33-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vegas to win 

The Stars generally play a tight defensive system that has seen them allow more than 3 goals just two times in their L/11 games overall. One of those 2 games saw Calgary score 7 goals in a loss, and here today in the rematch Im betting on a more concerted defensive effort from the Stars in a game that points towards a much lower scoring affair. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent of 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.4 gpg scored.

NHL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite, off a road win where they shut out their opponent are 31-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 4.6 gpg. 

Play on the under

Florida enters this game on tired legs , and have had a hard time converting on offense.   They take alot of shots but with a very low success rate  of  8.6 percent  ranks near the bottom of the league. Im betting their woes continue tonight against the Habs. On the flioside the Panthers D ,  and  strong play of goaltenders Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz and a red hot stopping penalty-kill unit which is a perfect  20-for-20 on penalty kills over the past five games and 43-for-48 on the kill over the past 16 games makes this contest vs Montreal a tilt that has a viable chance at staying under the total. Note: FLORIDA is 9-3 UNDER  against excellent power play teams- scoring on 17.5% or better  of their chances this season like the Canadiens. FLORIDA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. division opponents this season with a combined average of 3.8 opg scored. 

NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (FLORIDA) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the first half of the season are 23-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the combined  average gpg ringing in at 5.2 . 

Play under

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

We are getting value with the underdog here based on the fact that OSU has played the last three-and-half games without their most consistent offesnive threat  – senior guard Bryce Thompson (14.3 ppg, 6/12 3pt) – but other weapons have emerged in his absence and they must not be disregarded as viable underdogs here at home.OSU has scored 90+ points in back-to-back games for the first time under Boynton and have the capabilities to had here as pups.

OKLAHOMA ST is 31-8 ATS L/39 in home games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. 

McDermott is 27-46 ATS  in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game as the coach of CREIGHTON.

Play on Oklahoma state to cover

 My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

CBB  team (FARLEIGH DICKINSON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT shooting team (32% or less), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 12-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Fairleigh Dickinson to cover

Because Dallas has been top form of late, and also because they are Americas team  they are being over rated here vs the Seattle Seahawks a side that has won 3 of the L/4 meetings vs the Boyz including 4 straight covers. I know Seattle has not performed optimally of late, and lost their last two games both as pups but it must be noted Seahawks  teams are 10-0 ATS L/10 when losing consecutive tilts as underdogs. Carroll is 20-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE.

Carroll is 20-10 ATS  against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

 DALLAS is 17-38 ATS L/55 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. 

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 12-32 ATS L/5 seasons for. a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover