Will Rogers

The set-up: The Red Sox and Yankees are in a see-saw battle for the AL East lead, as the two teams own MLB's top-two records. Xander Bogaerts doubled in the go-ahead run during a three-run ninth inning on Wednesday as Boston ran its winning streak to four games with a 4-1 win over the Rays at Tropicana Field. The victory gave them a major league-best 34-15 record and with the Yankees falling 12-10 at Texas, a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL East over 31-15 New York. Tampa Bay had won six in a row to climb back to the .500 mark but the Rays have scored a total of just five runs in losing their last three. The last two have come against the Red Sox, as Tampa will attempt to avoid a three-game home sweep in tonight's contest.

The pitching matchup: Rick Porcello (6-1, 3.39 ERA) will be on the mound for Boston, opposed by Tampa lefty Blake Snell (5-3, 3.07 ERA). Porcello won the AL's 2017 Cy Young (21-4, 3.15 ERA) but then fell to 11-17, 4.65 last season. However, at 6-1, Porcello has returned to his 2016 form so far in 2018. Porcello already has seen more of the Tampa Bay Rays in less than two months than most pitchers do of one opponent in a season. Porcello will make his 11th start of the year but his fourth against the Rays. Porcello opened the season with back-to-back wins over Tampa Bay, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings at Tropicana Field on March 31 and then allowed three runs in 7 1/3 innings at home on April 7. He also worked a season-high 7 2/3 innings against the Rays on April 29, giving up three runs in a no-decision that Boston won 4-3. Snell rebounded from his worst start of the season (allowed five ERs in just 3 1/3 inning vs. Baltimore on May 13) with a strong effort at the Los Angeles Angels on Friday, striking out eight in 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball. It marked the seventh time in eight starts he has permitted fewer than three runs, including a 7 1/3-inning outing at Boston on April 27 in which he gave up two. Snell is 2-1 with a 1.07 ERA in four home starts, one of which was a 5 2/3 scoreless-inning performance against the Red Sox on March 30.

The pick: Porcello is14-8 in his career against Tampa Bay with a solid 3.23 ERA, although four of those losses came last season. However, a noted already, 2018 is shaping up much more like 2016 for Porcello, than 2017. Back in his Cy Young season of 2016, he posted a 5-0 record against the Rays. Getting back to Snell, he is 2-3 with a 4.13 ERA against the Red Sox in his career, including an 0-2 mark with a 5.97 ERA last season. Getting back to just the team vs. team matchup, Boston has already won nine of 12 in the season series, including five of six at Tropicana Field. Make Boston an 8* play.

The set-up: The Houston Astros won 4-1 last night behind Justin Verlander, sweeping a two-game IL series over the Giants (Astros won 11-2 on Tuesday, behind Gerrit Cole). The Astros will now open a seven-game road trip Thursday with the first of four games with the Cleveland Indians. The Indians just completed a 4-4 road trip, which included a 1-2 mark at Houston last weekend, with a two-game interleague sweep in Chicago during which they beat the Cubs 10-1 and 1-0. Both teams reside in first place in their respective division (AL Central and West), with both owning two game advantages over their closest challengers. However, while Houston is an impressive 32-18 (only the Red Sox and Yankees own higher winning percentages), the Indians 24-23 mark has them atop the Central only because no other team in that division owns a winning record!

The pitching matchup: Charlie Morton (6-0, 1.94 ERA) takes the mound for Houston, while Mike Clevinger (3-1, 2.87 ERA gets the nod for Cleveland. As noted above, the Astros won two of three games last weekend in Houston, so not surprisingly in this quick rematch, two of the four pitching matchups for this series are identical to two from last weekend. That includes tonight 's matchup. Morton looks to top Cleveland for the second time in seven days, after allowing one run and four hits over seven innings of a 4-1 home victory over the Indians on Friday. Morton has registered 70 strikeouts while issuing only 18 walks in 55 2/3 innings this season and has allowed more than two runs only twice in his nine starts (Astros are 6-3). Morton's win last time out improved him to 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland. Clevinger suffered his first loss of the season opposite Morton on Friday, surrendering three runs on eight hits and four walks in 6 1/3 innings. Clevinger has made three career starts against the Astros, going 1-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 15 innings.

The pick: The defending World Series champions have picked right up this year from how they finished last year during their impressive march to the winner's circle, when they won 101 games in the regular season. The same cannot be said about the Indians. Cleveland won 102 games last year, including an American League-record 22-game winning streak. However, he Indians were surprisingly eliminated in their Division Series against the Yankees, when they won the first two games, but lost the last three. The hangover from that shockingly quick exit from the 2017 postseason appears to be lingering this year (see above). A huge problem for teh Indians in 2018 has been that after having the best bullpen in the league the last two years, the Indians are last in the American League in bullpen ERA this year. The Indians' 5.65 bullpen ERA is almost three runs higher than their league-leading 2.89 ERA last season. Edge to the Astros and I'll make Houston a 10* play.

The set-up: The Houston Rockets allowed 126 points on 52.2 percent shooting in a 41-point loss in Game 3 but came out with a renewed passion on the defensive end in Game 4, evidenced by the team's play in the fourth quarter. Houston was staring at a 10-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter and if the Rockets couldn't get things turned around in the final 12 minutes. they would be returning home for Game in a 3-1 series hole. However, the fourth quarter of Game 4 provided a prime example of Houston's "renewed passion on the defensive end." The Warriors claimed their largest lead of the contest at 82-70 when Stephen Curry assisted on a Shaun Livingston dunk at the 10:45 mark. That play produced the 14th and final assist of the evening for Golden State. The Rockets would go on to hold the Warriors to 12 points in the fourth quarter (Golden State missed its final five FG attempts) to earn a 95-92 victory. "How we defend, how we pay attention to detail and how we go about playing defense. Tonight, in the fourth quarter when it mattered, we got stops. It let us get back in the game, it let us take the lead and it let us win." Meanwhile, Golden State head coach Steve Kerr blamed fatigue for his team's poor fourth-quarter performance but conceded that the Rockets were the better team down the stretch. "I felt like in the fourth quarter we just ran out of gas," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "Scored 12 points. Tried to buy a little rest for our guys, but yeah, they just outplayed us in the fourth and they earned it."

Golden State: The Warriors held Houston to 39 percent shooting in Game 4 but still couldn't win. Golden State shot only 39.3% in the loss and while Curry had 28 points and KD added 27 & 12, Klay Thompson was held to just 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting. He now owns an average of 10.3 points over the last three games after going off for 28 in Game 1. Andre Iguodala (leg) sat out Game 4 and is questionable for Thursday. Golden State "went big" by replacing him in the starting lineup with the 6-9 Looney, who did little (four points on 2 of 6 shooting in 26 minutes). What's more, the Golden State bench contributed a modest 12 points.

Houston: The Game 4 win returns the homecourt edge to Houston, which needs two wins over the next three games to knock the Warriors off their three-year reign as Western Conference champs. PG Chris Paul battled a foot injury in Game 4 but turned in his best scoring effort of the series with 27 points on 10-of-20 shooting. Harden led the way with 30 points, despite making only 3 of 12 three pointers.

The pick: Golden State (No. 1) and Houston (No. 20 are the two-best offensive teams in the NBA but "get there" in very different ways. The Warriors paced the NBA in assist percentage (68.5) during the regular season, while conversely, the Rockets ranked 22nd at 55.7 percent, relying mostly on the isolation brilliance of James Harden and Chris Paul. I expect Golden State to bounce back in a big way but I also expect Houston's complimentary players Ariza, Tucker and Gordon to bounce back at home, as well. Eric Gordon scored 27 points in the last game played in Houston (Game 2) but went 3-of-16 from three-point range over the last two games. Ariza and Tucker combined 41 points in making 15 of 18 shots in Game 2 but then totaled only 25 points (on 6 of 19 shooting) in Games 3 and 4 in Oakland. Make the Over a 10* play.

The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers began their 10-game homestand with a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, outscoring them 14-4. The surge landed Milwaukee in first-place in the NL Central but the team landed with a thud in its series opener against the New York Mets last night, managing only five singles in a 5-0 loss. Milwaukee now looks to bounce back Friday as it continues the four-game set with Ryan Braun back in the lineup. The former MVP recorded one of those singles last night, in his first game following a stint on the disabled list due to a back ailment. Meanwhile, the Mets pounded out 13 hits as they began their eight-game road trip on a positive note. Brandon Nimmo fell a HR shy of the cycle, as he went 4-for-4 with a walk and scored twice. New York had lost two straight prior to Thursday, scoring one run in each defeat, and had dropped three of its previous four on the road. Milwaukee is headed in the right direction at 31-20 on the season, after a 9-9 start. As for New York, the Mets opened 11-1 but last night's win leaves them a more modest 25-21.

The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (4-1, 2.91 ERA) takes the mound for New York, opposed by Milwaukee's Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98 ERA). Syndergaard got a win in his season debut but allowed four runs. However, he has allowed three runs or less in each of his last nine starts. He is a modest 3-1 in those nine starts but the Mets are 6-3. It may be notable that he hasn't started on the road since April 26 in St. Louis (we'll see). Syndergaard has been dominant against Milwaukee in his career, going 2-0 with a 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three starts (Mets are 3-0). Guerra appears to have overcome a pair of rough starts to start the month, allowing three runs over 10 1/3 innings while going 1-0 in his last two outings (2.53 ERA). However, Guerra has struggled at home, surrendering nine runs over 10 innings in back-to-back losses, after giving up one unearned run across 10 2/3 innings in his first two outings of 2018 at Miller Park. Guerra has permitted one run over 12 2/3 innings while going 1-0 in two career starts against New York (Brewers are 1-1).

The pick: Despite Milwaukee's .608 win percentage (highest in the NL) and its three-game lead in the NL Central, the Brewers have been shut out a major league-high nine times this season. That hardly bodes well against Syndergaard, who owns a 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a 68-13 KW ratio. That's not mention his 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. Guerra is no Syndergaard but he's a solid part of a Milwaukee rotation which owns' MLB's second-best ERA (3.37). What's more, Milwaukee's bullpen ERA is a ML-best 2.46! Make the Under a 10* play.

The set-up: The Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers opened a four-game series in Arlington last night, with the Royals rolling to an 8-2 victory. KC now looks to extend its season-high winning streak to four games on Friday with the second contest of its four-game series. Kansas City has outscored its opponents 18-5 during its season-best stretch and now owns a 17-33 record. Texas was limited to five hits in the opener, after it slugged seven HRs and scored 23 runs while taking two of three from the New York Yankees. The Rangers own just a slightly better record than KC (at 20-32), due mostly to the team's home woes (Rangers own a 9-18 home record!).

The pitching matchup: Lefty Eric Skoglund (1-4, 6.15 ERA) will get the start for the Royals, while Texas counters with a lefty of its own in Mike Minor (3-3, 5.59 ERA). Skoglund takes the mound win-less in his last four starts (team is 1-3), losing each of his last two starts. He was torched for six runs and eight hits in five innings of a loss to New York in his last outing. Skoglund has struggled on the road in six major-league appearances (five starts), going 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.05 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .548. As for Minor, his numbers are hardly 'pretty!' He is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA over his last three starts (team is 0-3), serving up five HRs in 15 1/3 innings during that stretch. He had won three straight decisions before falling into his current rut plus allowed just three HRs over his first six starts of 2018. Minor is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against Kansas City, a team for which he made 65 relief appearances last season, while posting a career-best 2.55 ERA.

The pick: Yes, the Rangers are among MLB's worst home teams (9-18) but the struggling Texas lineup is way better than its performance, so far. KC's Skoglund looks to be the perfect foil, as his 6.15 ERA attests. What's more, his six major-league appearances on the road (five starts) reveal a 9.82 ERA and 2.05 WHIP with opponents batting an unheard of .548. against him! As for Minor, he spent last year as a reliever with Kansas City, leading the staff in relief wins (6), ranking second in appearances (65) and saves (6), plus placing third in holds (17) and games finished (13). Maybe most importantly, he posted a career-best 2.55 ERA. Minor has struggled on the road (8.38 ERA and 1.60 WHIP) but while his teammates have struggled in Arlington, he owns a more than respectable 3.72 home ERA (five starts), plus a good 1.14 WHIP. Make Texas an 8* play.

The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost prized off-season free agent Gordon Hayward in their regular season opener at Cleveland. Then, Boston lost prized off-season trade acquisition, Kyrie Irving (note: Irving's 24.4 PPG average was 10 points higher than the team's second-best scorer!), in mid-March for the remainder of the year. However, the Celtics are just one win away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Celtics own a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference finals but while they are a perfect 10-0 at home, they are only1-6 on the road this postseason (including losses in Games 3 & 4 at Cleveland). As for the Cavs, LeBron James could be playing in his final game in Cleveland before his expected dive into free agency. However, it should come as nor surprise that "The King" is clearly focused on earning one more trip to Boston. "We're looking forward to having an opportunity to force a Game 7," James told reporters after his squad's 96-83 loss in Wednesday's Game 5. "It's up to us to see if we can come back here for one more." Also on the line is LBJ's consecutive Finals streak, as he has gone to the last seven, including the past three with the Cavs.

Boston: Rookie SF Jayson Tatum scored 24 points in Game 5 for his ninth 20-point outing of the postseason. The 20-year-old is putting together one of the best scoring playoff runs by a rookie in NBA history with 312 points and he trails only Elgin Baylor (331), Alvan Adams (341) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (352). Tatum led Boston in Game 5 but four others scored in double-digits, which tells the story of the Celtics' success this postseason. Tatum has averaged 18.4 & 4.3 this postseason, followed by Brown (17.8 & 4.9), Rozier (16.5-5.5-5.8), Horford (12.5 & 8.5), Morris (12.5 & 5.2) and Smart (10.2-3.8-5.0). Boston's defense was smothering in the Game 5 win. The Cavs were forced into 15 turnovers, as the Celtics changed their starting lineup and went big, inserting Aron Baynes for Marcus Morris but often playing both of them with Al Horford. The Celtics ended the regular season allowing 100.4 PPG (3rd) on 44.0% shooting (2nd), including 33.9% on threes (1st).

Cleveland: James had 26 points, 10 rebounds and five assists while going 11-of-22 shooting in Game 5 but he downplayed interrogating questions about his level of fatigue (note: LBJ scored only two points in the 4th quarter). "I had my moments, but I think everybody at this point is tired, worn down whatever the case may be," James told reporters. "I was still trying to make plays, put our team in position to win." James topped 40 points twice in this series and six times in the postseason and has at times single-handedly kept his team afloat. That said, the Cavs will need their complementing players to step up. Kevin Love was the only other Cavaliers player who scored in double figures in Game 5, while the team's other three starters (Hill, Smith and Thompson) combined for just 10 points on 2 of 14 shooting!

The pick: So where do we (I) stand? LBJ will need help but in the end, it is really all about him. This marks LBJ's 22nd game in which his team will be facing elimination. In the previous 21 games in which his team has faced elimination in the playoffs, James is averaging an NBA-record 33.5 points. He has played in seven of these with the Cavs dating to the 2015 playoffs, and not only is he averaging 36.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 9.1 assists in those games, he has scored 40 or more five times and Cleveland has won those four games. The last time the Cavs faced an elimination scenario -- which means the last time they had to deal with the whole "LeBron's last game" narrative -- was Game 7 of the first round against the Pacers. James scored 45 that day and the Cavs survived, although did not cover. However, the Pacers only earned that ATS win by making a meaningless three-pointer in the final seconds. Boston's been unbeatable at home but on the road....NOT SO MUCH! Make Cleveland a 10* play.