Will Rogers

The set-up: The Yanks are dominating right now and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here as they try to deliver the knock out blow from the now floundering Jays. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chase Anderson (0-1, 5.40 ERA) who has conceded ten runs over his last 6 2/3's innings of work spanning two starts. The Jays have been outscored 40-10 in losing three straight games now. 

The pick: Masahiro Tanaka (2-2, 3.16) allowed one run over five innings in a victory over Baltimore in his last outing. Tanaka has allowed two runs or less in six of his eight stars and he's 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 21 career outings vs. Toronto. I'm laying the price and expecting a blowout of epic proportions!

This is a 6* BLOWOUT on the New York Yankees.

The set-up: I had a play on the Mets last night, but I think that the Phillies will bounce back here with their ace on the mound. Yes Philadelphia's bullpen stinks, but it gets a couple key sluggers back for this contest and I think that Aaron Nola is being severely undervalued in this spot. Nola would typically be a -180 favorite in this spot, but the weird abbreviated 2020 season has somewhat leveled the playing field it would seem this year. Seth Lugo has been great so far for the Mets, but he enters off a loss to the Jays, allowing three runs over five innings. 

The pick: Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot, but I think this matchup highly favors the Phillies. Nola is 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 starts vs. the Mets lifetime and I look for him to improve on that win/loss record right here. Lay the short price!

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: This has been a very defensive series, but after falling 2-1 in double OT last time out, I expect the Lightning to push the pace of Game 6 from start to finish, so as to avoid having to go to a decisive Game 7. The Islanders have been fantastic to this point in slowing down the pace of this series, but after expending so much energy in their Game 5 win, one has to wonder just how much gas is left in the tank for the Islanders?!

The pick: Finally note that Tampa has seen the total go "oer" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring one or less goals in an OT loss in its previous outing, while the Isles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last nine after allowing one or less goals in an OT victory in their last outing. Look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later!

This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CONER on the OVER Lightning/Islanders.

The set-up: Boston looked pretty good through three quarters, but the Heat hung around the entire time and as they've done so often in the bubble, they had a big fourth quarter and managed to tie it up and then win SU in overtime. While that contest was destined to fly "over" despite an OT frame, I think that Game 2 definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair. The Celtics are one of the best defensive clubs in the league and I simply can't see the Heat shooting 50 percent from range for a second straight contest. 

The pick: Boston has seen the total go "under" in 11 of it slast 14 games, including in eight of then during the playoffs and I expect this now desparate defensive minded club to double down on that end of the court. Miami is adaptable team, if you want to "run and gun," it's able to do that, but it's just as comfortable running half court sets and full court pressure as well. This one has "under" written all over it in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Heat/Celtics.

The set-up: Over-reaction after Week 1 is a major issue for casual bettors. The Browns got destroyed on the road in Baltimore in their first game of the year and the pundits are already out and ready to crucify them. The Bengals were put in a position to win my rookie QB Joe Burrow in their Week 1 loss to the Chargers, but a missed FG at the end of the game cost the team the OT chance. Granted, the Browns looked bad, but I'm not going to read too much into that performance, because even if Cleveland had been "firing on all cylinders," it wasn't likely going to win that game anyways. And the Browns knew that. In fact, I'd argue that they used it almost as a pre-season warm-up and I expect a much stronger performance from Baker Mayfield and company in Week 2. 

The pick: It's asking a lot of this young QB to now go on the road and try to win this "Battle of Ohio" vs. this desparate and veteran Browns club. I think Burrow is going to be in for a surprise tonight when he sees how difficult this Browns defense is on its home field. Additionally note that Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring six points or less and allowing 30 points or more in a loss in its last outing. Lay the points!

This is a 10* TOUCH-DOWN on the Cleveland Browns.