Stephen Nover Stephen Nover
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 27, 2021
Pacers vs Knicks
Pacers
-116 at pinnacle
Lost
$116.0
Play Type: Premium
The Pacers and Knicks are each one game below .500. I love what Tom Thibodeau has done with the Knicks bringing back defense and respect.  But I also like Indiana's first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren. The Pacers have the better roster. They've struggled lately, though, because of a difficult schedule.  Indiana is 4-8 in its last 12 games. However, seven of those defeats occurred to the Celtics, Bulls in overtime, Nets, Jazz, Pelicans, Bucks and 76ers.  New York, by contrast, has had it much easier. In their last six games, the Knicks have played home games versus the Kings, Warriors, Timberwolves, Hawks and Rockets. Their lone road contest during this span was against the Magic.  So record-wise it might not seem like a step up game for the Knicks. But in my opinion it is and the price is right to back the superior team. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 27, 2021
Wolves vs Wizards
Wolves
+4 -103 at pinnacle
Lost
$103.0
Play Type: Premium
There aren't many defenses worse than the Timberwolves. Washington is one such defense. The Wizards give up 119.5 points, which is three more points per game than what Minnesota allows.  Washington, though, has been playing well. Thus the Wizards are laying their most points in this calendar year.  It makes sense - on the surface. The Wizards are coming off a highly-successful 3-1 West Coast trip that culminated with an upset of the Nuggets this past Thursday night. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA, losers of 10 of their last 11 games.  But all of this is on the surface.  The reality is the Timberwolves are much improved, too, and the Wizards are in a huge flat spot.  The Wizards are in action for the fourth time in six days, all at different venues. This is their first home game following their four-game, seven day trip out West that went far better than expected. On deck for the Wizards is a much bigger conference matchup against the Celtics on Sunday. The Wizards could be looking ahead to that game smelling blood with the Celtics reeling.  Minnesota has lost six in a row. But let's examine the Timberwolves' past seven games starting with an upset victory against the Raptors. That was followed by an eight-point loss to the Lakers, an overtime defeat to the Pacers, a five-point loss to the revenge-seeking Raptors, a four-point road loss to the much-improved Knicks, a blowout road loss to the Bucks and an overtime road defeat to the Bulls in a game they should have won and still might have if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't foul out in regulation.  The Timberwolves are more respectable now with Towns healthy and Chris Finch as their new coach. Minnesota has been idle the past two days giving Finch needed time to work with his new team. Veteran Ricky Rubio is a good fit with Finch's up-tempo style lessening the impact of the Timberwolves being without D'Angelo Russell.
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
Baylor vs Kansas
Kansas
+5 -109 at Draft Kings
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30.   It showed.  The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72.  No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation.  Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984.  Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat.  
 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
SE Missouri State vs SIU-Edwardsville
SIU-Edwardsville
+3½ -118 at pinnacle
Lost
$118.0
Play Type: Premium
The spot and dynamics are right for SIU Edwardsville to pull off this Ohio Valley Conference upset. The Cougars were nipped by Southeast Missouri State, 64-62, as 3-point road 'dogs on Jan. 28. The Redhawks may have had some home cooking in that one as they shot 32 free throws compared to 17 for the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville has held its last two foes, Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin, to 56 and 53 points, respectively. The Cougars have covered seven of the last eight times when meeting a below .500 opponent.  Southeast Missouri State may be dealing with a letdown spot after upsetting Eastern Illinois on the road two days ago. The Redhawks are 6-17-1 ATS the last 24 times following a victory. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
NC-Greensboro vs East Tennessee State
NC-Greensboro
+1 -110 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Everything is on the line for North Carolina Greensboro here and I believe the Spartans will respond with a victory.  If NC Greensboro defeats East Tennessee State and Furman loses on the road to Wofford than the Spartans capture the Southern Conference title and No. 1 seed for the league tournament to be held March 5-8. That's because the Spartans have a .706 winning percentage, while Furman has a .714 win percentage. It's win percentage that determines the Southern Conference regular-season champion. The Furman-Wofford game tips off three hours later than this one.  The Spartans have revenge for a 71-61 home loss to East Tennessee State back on Jan. 2. The Buccaneers aren't playing as well now as they were back then going 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games, including suffering a seven-point home loss to Mercer and a two-point road loss to Tennessee-Chattanooga in their last two games. The Buccaneers could be rusty, too. They last played 10 days ago, having had their past two games called off.  East Tennessee State averaged just 57.5 points in its past two games. Greensboro has produced at least 77 points in four of its past five games. The Spartans, who have covered eight of their last 10 away contests, will have the best player on the court in Isaiah Miller, who averages 18.4 points a game. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is one of the top college basketball 'cappers in the country with the record to back it up - 229-176-5. Stephen has his strongest CBB card of the season going today headed by his Nationally Televised Game of the Year. Don't miss any of Stephen's premium play winners all of which come with his trademark analysis.) 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
Houston Baptist vs McNeese State
OVER 157 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium
Only eight teams in the country produce more points per game than McNeese State, which averages 82.8. The Cowboys are going up against a terrible Houston Baptist defense that ranks 340th allowing 81.5 points.  Houston Baptist turns the ball over nearly 18 times per game. So the Cowboys should get a number of easy baskets while also being able to dominate inside with KeyShawn Feazell. This also is the Cowboys' first home game since Jan. 20. So they certainly should be pumped - which means offense not defense. The Over has cashed in 11 of McNeese State's last 14 home contests. Houston Baptist should help out, too, with the Over. The Huskies have scored 80 points in two of their past three games. McNeese State is well below average defensively ranking 242nd giving up nearly 73 points per game. 
 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
Abilene Christian vs Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas
+17½ -110 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
Central Arkansas is in revenge mode after a 93-58 road loss to Abilene Christian on Jan. 23. Central Arkansas was banged-up earlier, but now is healthier. The Bears are 4-1 ATS when catching 11 or more points this season. They have scored 68 or more points in three of their past five games. Abilene Christian has surrendered 69 or more points in two of its last four games. The Wildcats have failed to cover five of their last six away contests. 
  
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
Texas Southern vs Alabama State
Alabama State
+10½ +100 at BetCris
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
The oddsmaker isn't paying enough attention to the current form of these two teams. I guess you can't blame him with this being a Southwest Athletic Conference matchup. Alabama State has improved its defense holding four of its past five foes to fewer than 69 points a game. Alabama State has a top-50 defense against 3-pointers.  Texas Southern is just an average scoring team and a terrible 3-point shooting team. If you toss out the Tigers' victory against Mississippi Valley State - one of the worst teams in Division I - they are giving up 72.5 points in their last four games. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
Tennessee State vs Eastern Kentucky
OVER 150½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium
Extremely fast-paced. Tremendous scoring. Bad defense. All of that fits Eastern Kentucky and those factors are why the Colonels have gone Over in 13 of their last 16 games.  I see another Over in this matchup as Tennessee State has gone Over in its last six games.  Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky played each other two weeks ago and the total flew Over with the Colonels winning, 93-73, for a combined 166 points. The Tigers shot just 39 percent from the floor in that game, too. The Tigers have scored 73 or more points in three of their last four games. Eastern Kentucky surrenders 73.8 points per game, which ranks 265th. So Tennessee State should be good for at least 73 points this time around, too.  Eastern Kentucky is the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. The Colonels have scored 81 or more points in five of their past six games. Tennessee State ranks 256th defensively. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 27, 2021
Central Michigan vs Ball State
Central Michigan
+11½ -110 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
Central Michigan hung in against Buffalo on the road in its last game losing, 85-73, easily covering as 21 1/2-point 'dogs. Buffalo only outscored Central Michigan by four points in the second half. Ball State hasn't been a favorite in more than a month. This isn't surprising considering the Cardinals have a losing record and are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games.  The Cardinals can get up for some of the better teams in the MAC, but they aren't strong enough to lay double-digits against any of the conference teams with the exception of Northern Illinois. 
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.