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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Oct 24, 2021 Eagles vs Raiders |
Eagles +2½ -100 at pinnacle |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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The Eagles and Jalen Hurts have played their best on the road. Philly is 2-1 away from home and Hurts has thrown five of his eight TD passes and completed 66.7 percent of his throws in away contests compared to 57.7 percent at home. The Raiders won an emotional division game last week beating Denver. That was their first game without Jon Gruden. Now Las Vegas is favored against the Eagles, who are on extra rest and prep time having played last Thursday. I don't trust the Raiders in their second game without Gruden, who was an astute offensive game-planner. The Broncos have lost and failed to cover four in a row. Their wins were against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. So beating Denver is not that big of an accomplishment. Las Vegas already has lost to the Bears at home and needed overtime to slip past the Dolphins at home. Hurts and Miles Sanders, who is way overdue for a big game, can hurt the Raiders on the ground. Hurts has five rushing TD's, most of any quarterback. He also has the second most quarterback rushing yards behind Lamar Jackson. The Raiders rank 25th in run defense and 30th in rushing yards. The return of All-Pro offensive lineman Lane Johnson is a huge plus for the Eagles. It's a huge negative for the Raiders if Darren Waller can't play. Las Vegas relies on big plays. The Eagles, though, rank second-best in the league in allowing the fewest plays of 20 or more yards. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Oct 24, 2021 Celtics vs Rockets |
Celtics -5½ -110 at BetVegas |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Boston and its new coach, Ime Udoka, are in need of a victory at 0-2. The Rockets are off a rare victory. Houston isn't going to win many games this season, but it did beat another bottom-feeder, Oklahoma City, in blowout fashion two days ago. The Rockets finished last season 0-8 ATS following a victory. The Celtics are on high urgency alert having lost their opening in double-overtime to the Knicks and then running out of gas against the Raptors in a 115-83 home loss this past Friday. The Celtics were booed by their fans and Udoka ripped into his team. Expect a strong performance from Boston today against a very weak opponent who doesn't have much of a home-court advantage. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Oct 24, 2021 Colts vs 49ers |
Colts +4 -102 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams. Carson Wentz quietly is having a good season. He has just one interception, fewest of any starting quarterback, and has thrown multiple TD passes in each of his last three games. The Colts' stud offensive line is getting healthier. Jonathan Taylor gives Indy the best running back on the field by far. This is a huge game for Colts' star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner going against his former team. The 49ers have lost their last six home games. They are 0-8 ATS as home chalk. I find Kyle Shanahan to be perhaps the most overrated coach in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo is back at QB. Trey Lance isn't expected to play due to a knee injury. Garoppolo is much easier to game plan against. He wasn't mobile to begin with and now he's returning from a calf injury. The 49ers have yet to find their lead running back and star tight end George Kittle is on the injured list. The Colts are plus 7 in takeaways/giveaways. The 49ers, by contrast, have a minus-5 turnover ratio. The 49ers have multiple injuries in their secondary. There's a chance of rain and wind in the 10-15 mph range. This favors the better rushing team, which the Colts are because of Taylor. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Oct 24, 2021 Lions vs Rams |
UNDER 50½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I have been watching the NFL for nearly 60 years. Never have I seen a worse wide receiver group than what the Lions have with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, Tom Kennedy and Geronimo Allison. Jalen Ramsey can catch up on his reading facing these guys. The Rams, of course, know Jared Goff well. They know his many weaknesses and lack of downfield passing. Detroit's one-time decent offensive line isn't very good anymore either because of injuries and rookie left tackle Penei Sewell's continued struggles. The result is the Lions have failed to score 17 points in their last five games, averaging 15.2 points during this span. They have scored one first half TD since Week 2. The Lions lack talent on defense, too. But they play hard for Dan Campbell. Until getting clobbered by the Bengals, 34-11, this past Sunday the Lions held their previous three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to an average of 20.6 points. Detroit should be motivated to perform better defensively after getting lit up by the Bengals. Matthew Stafford can produce big points, but Sean McVay has no reason to reveal any trick plays, or new wrinkles against such a weak road foe. If a blowout is occurring, McVay might even pull Stafford and the rest of his offensive starters. The oddsmaker still hasn't quite caught up to the Lions when it comes to totals. The Under has cashed in Detroit's last four games. The Lions have gone Under the total by an average of nearly 11 points a game during their past four games. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Oct 24, 2021 Falcons vs Dolphins |
OVER 47½ -105 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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There's some below-the-radar stuff that lends this matchup to a sneaky Over play. Let's start with the Falcons. Matt Ryan has picked up Arthur Smith's offense and picked up his game. He's completed 71 percent of his passes the last four games throwing 10 TD's during this span. Smith, an offensive guru, has had two weeks to game plan with the Falcons being idle last week. Star wide receiver Calvin Ridley is back. Kyle Pitts had his coming out party during the Falcons' last game, catching nine passes for 119 yards and a TD in a 27-20 win against the Jets. The Dolphins' secondary hasn't lived up to expectations with star cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones both being out. They are questionable for this game. Miami ranks in the bottom-four in points given up, yards allowed and pass defense. The Falcons rank in the top 10, too, in pace. Now the Dolphins. Miami's season numbers are skewed because of Jacoby Brissett's substandard play when Tua Tagovailoa was out with injured ribs. Tagovailoa returned last week against the Jaguars and threw for 351 yards and two TD's. He's a clear upgrade on Brissett. Tagovailoa has upgraded wide receiving weapons from a year ago and won't lack motivation to prove himself with Deshaun Watson rumors again floating around. The Dolphins play at the sixth-fasted pace, too. Miami's biggest weakness is its offensive line. Atlanta, though, lacks a pass rush. The Falcons surrender the second-most points per game at 29.6 and have only three takeaways. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Oct 24, 2021 Bengals vs Ravens |
UNDER 46½ -105 |
Lost $105.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I was having some doubt about the Ravens' defense - until this past Sunday. The Ravens got back to their effective blitzing ways and held Justin Herbert and his high-powered Chargers attack to a mesley six points. The Ravens held the Bengals to a combined six points last season. Zac Taylor is 0-4 versus Baltimore. I have far more confidence in the Ravens' defense and psychological edge than I do in the Bengals' promising offense and improved-but-still-vulnerable offensive line. I'm far more convinced about Cincinnati's improvement on defense. The Bengals rank fifth in scoring defense and give up the eighth-fewest yards per game. They can hold up at the point of attack against Baltimore especially with the Ravens down to a bunch of back-up, or over-the-hill, running backs. Cincinnati has held their last five opponents to an average of 16.8 points. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-quality season. However, he's mostly gone against weak-to-mediocre defenses. The Bengals are the best defense he's seen. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Oct 24, 2021 Texans vs Cardinals |
Texans +18 -110 at William Hill |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| As the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, the Cardinals deserve a break. They get one here. This is a rest stop for Arizona. The Cardinals came away with two huge division victories against the Rams and 49ers before going on the road against the Browns. The Cardinals didn't take their foot off the pedal defeating Cleveland, 37-14, last week. After this game, the Cardinals host the Packers on Thursday in a stand-alone nationally televised marquee matchup. Then Arizona goes to San Francisco for a rematch against the 49ers. The media may play up the DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt angle of facing their former team, but in truth the Cardinals can mail this one in - and they know it. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills has had 18 quarters of starting experience now. But, really, this entire handicap is based on a fade of Arizona in this monster price range and in a flat spot. The Cardinals have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times they've been a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury. | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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