Stephen Nover Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

Stephen Nover's Big Ten Game of the Year

Midwest native Stephen Nover has closely followed Big Ten basketball since before the days of Bobby Knight. Stephen has tremendous passion, sources and knowledge in this conference having grown up watching it and later covering it for various Midwest newspapers. Stephen is unbeaten on his Big Ten premium/free plays this month, including cashing a Saturday winner on the Under in Michigan State-Rutgers. Stephen has found his Big Ten Game of the Year on Sunday's card. Don't miss it!

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 05, 2023
Canisius vs. Marist
Marist
-115
  at  WMHILL
in 8h

A Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup of last place teams, Canisius and Marist, is not exactly must-see viewing. But I find value with host Marist so I'm involved.

Canisius hosted Marist on Jan. 13 and lost, 76-58. Center Patrick Gardner led the Red Foxes with 26 points on 11-of-15 shooting from the floor. He gives Marist the best player on the court. 

The Golden Griffins are 5-16. Marist is 7-14. Both are 3-9 in the MAAC. 

The Red Foxes are home and have the superior defense. Canisius is 2-10 on the road. The Golden Griffins rank last in the conference in many key defensive categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. 

Marist beat Canisius by 18 points on the road. Asking the Red Foxes to simply beat this same team at home shouldn't be too strong of a request. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover's Sunday card is headed by his Big Ten Game of the Year.) 

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 04, 2023
Heat vs Bucks
Heat
+5½ -110 at SC Consensus
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

The Bucks and their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, are playing extremely well with six consecutive victories. But Milwaukee has trouble with Miami. The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks. I see another close game here.

Only twice in their last 21 games have the Heat lost by more than five points.

Miami has the No. 2 defense in the NBA giving up 108.1 points. The Heat are 5-1 ATS the past six times on the road when going against a foe with a home winning percentage better than .600.

The Bucks still might be breathing a sigh of relief after a huge come-from-behind national TV win against the Clippers this past Thursday. Milwaukee pulled the game out, 106-105, by scoring the final seven points of the game.

Even with that win, Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times versus opponents with a winning record.

The Heat have covered the past four times against the Bucks, including posting 108-102 and 111-95 home victories on Jan. 12 and Jan. 14. Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, who is back healthy, didn't play in those games. Still, the Heat play the Bucks physically, tough and with confidence. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Heat pull out the outright win.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 04, 2023
Michigan State vs Rutgers
UNDER 127½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Michigan State is strong defensively. No surprise there. Rutgers is super strong defensively ranking in the top-six nationally in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The combination of outstanding defenses and this intense matchup being played at Madison Square Garden in New York should produce a very low-scoring game - and an Under. College teams not used to playing at Madison Square Garden often have trouble scoring there because of the large arena and shooting background. It is a tough, foreign court in a city full of distractions.

Michigan State is averaging only 62 points during its last two games.

The teams met on Jan. 19 at Michigan State. The Spartans won, 70-57. That's a total of 127 points. Note there were nine unanswered garbage points scored during the final minute that inflated that final score.

SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.