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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| MLB | May 25, 2018 Twins vs. Mariners |
Twins +1½ -130 at 5DIMES |
in 57m |
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I'm expecting a 4-3 type of game. So is the oddsmaker with the total lined at 7. The Twins would be 9-3 in their last 12 games if given 1 1/2 runs per game. Southpaw James Paxton is pitching great for Seattle. Paxton, though, has been good but not dominant in four home starts with a 3.04 ERA. He'll have to deal with the Twins' best power hitter as Miguel Sano is expected to play after missing the past 24 games with a hamstring injury. Minnesota has a winning record this season versus lefty starters, too. Twins starter Fernando Romero is living up to his hype as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. The rookie has pitched extremely well in three of his four big league starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA. The Mariners have never faced him. The Mariners' offense is down minus injured Dee Gordon and Robinson Cano. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his Baseball Total of the Month going today and also an NBA play in today's Game 5 Celtics-Cavaliers matchup. Stephen has won his last four NBA plays and is 19-7-1 on his last 27 NBA plays for 73 percent.) |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | May 24, 2018 Warriors vs Rockets |
UNDER 219½ -107 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| Slower pace, increased intensity, key adjustments by the Rockets and the oddsmaker not lowring the total enough all points to another Under in this Warriors-Rockets Game 5 matchup. The Rockets aren't letting the Warriors get off in transition, which was the case earlier in the series. They are an underrated defensive team - the Under has cashed in 15 of their last 22 home games - and have decreased tempo locking into the Warriors' shooters while milking time off the 24-second clock on offense by trying to isolate either James Harden or Chris Paul. There's a lot of grinding now as these Western Conference Finals now become a best of three with the series tied 2-2. The Warriors managed just 14 assists in Game 4. That was a series low. Golden State may not have Andre Iguodala again. He's still a very good defender, but his offense is missed because of his passing ability. Golden State's offensive flow suffers without him and his absence provides added minutes for defensive-minded players, Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell and Shaun Livingston. The Rockets are at their best when playing with one day's rest, which is the case here. So I see them continuing to play tough defense. The Under has cashed 22 of the last 32 times the Rockets have played on one day's rest. | ||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | May 25, 2018 Celtics vs Cavs |
Celtics +7 -109 at 5Dimes |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
| I understand the home team has won and covered each of the five games so far in this series. But I've believed the Celtics are the better team all along and I'm not going to turn away from them getting this many points. Boston snatched momemtum away from Cleveland winning, 96-83, at home two days ago. The Celtics have the fresher legs being the younger team and are far better coached. So the deeper this series goes the better for Boston. The Celtics beat the Cavaliers by 13 points in Game 5 despite shooting only 36 percent from the floor. Boston won because of outstanding adjustments made by Brad Stevens, one of which was going with a bigger lineup. This resulted in Boston outrebounding Cleveland, 45-39. I don't believe Tyrunn Lue is capable of countering Stevens. The Celtics were a good road team during the regular season. They've had two games now to figure out how to play in Cleveland. They don't have the best player on the court. That's LeBron James of course. But they play better team basketball and James is starting to display signs of fatigue. I'm taking the Celtics here anticipating James will play his normal "A" game. If he doesn't, though, it's an added bonus. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 25, 2018 Mets vs Brewers |
UNDER 8 -102 | |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| The Brewers have been shut out nine times this season. That's the most in the majors. It wouldn't shock me if they were shut out for a 10th time in this spot going against Noah Syndergaard. Discount a nine-run game against the Diamondbacks and Milwaukee has scored six runs in its last four games. Syndergaard is healthy and an absolute monster. He's allowed three runs or fewer during each of his past nine starts. He has a 0.49 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers. Brewers starter Junior Guerra is a late bloomer, who has settled into being a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. He has a 3.02 career ERA at home and is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball with the top arms all fresh. Guerra has allowed only one run in 12 3/3 innings lifetime against the Mets. The Mets' offense is way down minus injured Yoenis Cespedes, their most feared bat, and Todd Frazier. New York has been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its last 13 games. There's a good chance, too, that the roof is closed at Miller Park because of the threat of rain. That would be an added plus for the pitchers. | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 20 of 22 winning seasons. |
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