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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | Sep 17, 2020 Lightning vs Islanders |
Islanders +145 at betonline |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| I'm not convinced Tampa Bay has the mental toughness to close out this Eastern Conference finals after losing, 2-1, to the Islanders in double overtime this past Tuesday. That was the Lightning's opportunity. The Islanders still face elimination down 3-2 in the series. But New York is riding house money. The pressure remains on the Lightning. Tampa Bay has been in this situation before - and failed miserably blowing 3-2 series leads in 2016 and 2018 in the Eastern Conference finals. The double overtime win gives the Islanders new-found momentum. New York goalie Semyon Varamov also looked back in good form. The Lightning still could be without Brayden Point, their leading scorer in the playoffs. At this plus price, I'll take a shot with the well-coached, disciplined and mentally tough Islanders. They may not win, but they certainly won't go gently into the night. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 17, 2020 Rangers vs Astros |
Astros -1½ -129 at pinnacle |
Lost $129.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Rangers snuck past the Astros, 1-0, on Wednesday. I see the Astros bouncing back in a big way from that frustrating defeat. Texas manager Chris Woodward continues to experiment and build for next season. The Rangers had five rookies in their starting lineup during Tuesday's opening game of the series. The Rangers are 0-9 the past nine times when playing Game 3 of a series. Jordan Lyles is slated to start for Texas. He probably should no longer be in any team's starting rotation with a 7.80 ERA. Woodward could use this as a bullpen game so Lyles' stint could be short. Houston starter Framber Valdez began the season hot, but has cooled off during his last two starts. He should get back on track against the Rangers, a team he held to three runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings on Sept. 1. The Astros have won 12 of their last 14 home games against the Rangers, who have lost by 3 or more runs during eight of their last nine losses. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 17, 2020 Mets vs Phillies |
Phillies -121 at betonline |
Lost $121.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I want Aaron Nola going for me especially against the cold-hitting Mets at home. The price is low enough to get involved. Nola has a 2.40 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. He's been even better during his last four starts compiling a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 ratio. The Mets have scored just 11 runs in their last four games, an average of 2.7 runs. Converted starter Seth Lugo is slated to start for New York. The Mets are 0-4 in his last four road starts. Philadelphia has won nine of the last 10 times it has been favored at home. The Phillies are 7-1 in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park when going up against a righty starter, which Lugo is. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 17, 2020 Diamondbacks vs Angels |
UNDER 10½ -114 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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After a pair of high-scoring games where a combined 32 runs were scored, I'm expecting things to settle down in the finale of this three-game series. It's a rare afternoon start at Angel Stadium, which usually is bad for hitters later in the game when they have more trouble picking up the pitch. Listed starting pitchers are lefty Alex Young versus Griffin Canning. Anthony Rendon is the only Angels hitter who has ever faced Young, and he's 0-for-3 against him. Young has gone back and forth from starting and relieving. He pitched in relief this past Friday giving up two runs on two hits in 5 1/3 innings against Seattle. The Angels are 25th in batting against lefthanded pitchers. Canning is a promising young pitcher who has flashed at times, but needs more consistency. Canning has a similar advantage to Young in that the Diamondbacks don't know him. Jon Jay is Arizona's only player who has ever batted against Canning. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Sep 17, 2020 Heat vs Celtics |
Celtics -133 at pinnacle |
Lost $133.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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The scoreboard shows the Heat up 1-0 in this series after winning Game 1 in overtime. I had Boston on the money line in Game 1 and I'm sticking with the Celtics on the money line in Game 2 instead of laying a short number. I'm doing it because I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. I understand the Heat won Game 1. But the oddsmaker agrees with me as the Celtics are slightly larger favorites than they were in the opening game. Boston should have won Game 1 owning at least a two-possession lead for nearly the entire game. But the Celtics blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead and let the game slip away. The Celtics own the matchup edges. Miami's defense isn't as good as the Raptors, who the Celtics beat in the previous series. The Heat lack the defensive quickness to stay with Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylon Brown. And offensively, Jimmy Butler is really the Heat's only consistent scoring weapon. I certainly don't expect Jae Crowder to score 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including 5-of-9 from 3-point range, to come up that big again in Game 2 as he did in the opener. He averaged 10.5 points during the regular season. Walker needs to play better and the Celtics' transition defense needs to be turned up a notch like it was against the Raptors. Those shouldn't areas should not be difficult to fix. I'm not down on the Heat. I respect them enough to play Boston on the money line rather than risk laying a short number. But I've always thought the Celtics to be the better team and an opponent that Miami doesn't match-up as well against as it did against the Bucks. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Sep 17, 2020 Bengals vs Browns |
Bengals +6 -108 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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