Scott Rickenbach

Rotation #66: NHL Monday Dallas Stars Money Line -135 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:30 ET - Revenge from last year's post-season. Goaltending is so important in the post-season and Oettinger has been fantastic for the Stars down the stretch run and also has a league-best 24 wins since the 1st of January. Keep in mind, Vegas counted on Adin Hill in last year's post-season but he has been inconsistent this season so the Golden Knights might turn to Logan Thompson in this series and possibly even right out of the gate. However, Thompson is lacking something that is quite important this time of year and that is playoff experience. This Knights team battled injury issues this season and though some of those guys are now back, including Mark Stone, this team is just not on the level of last year's team. Vegas did win all 3 match-ups with the Stars this season. This included 2 in Dallas but the Golden Knights won just 16 of their other 39 road games this season. Also, the Stars won 26 of their other 39 home games! Vegas finished up the season with losses in 14 of last 27 games while Dallas wrapped the season with wins in 17 of their last 21 games and earned the top seed in the West. Now home ice, revenge, goalie edge, momentum edge, etc. are factors combining to put the Stars in a value spot for backing them to open this series with a big win and 1-0 series lead here. There is a reason the price is rising on this Stars team even with Vegas now returning to health plus being the defending champs. Don't hesitate to lay the price here! DALLAS -135

Rotation #953: MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies -117 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - I see no reason to stop riding the Phillies now. Just look at their lineup compared to the Reds lineup. There is no comparison. This Philadelphia team has a very dangerous lineup again this season while Cincinnati has been winning games mostly with pitching as this team is not impressive at the plate. In fact, the Reds .225 batting average ranks down near the bottom of the majors with teams like the Marlins and A's and White Sox and Twins and Cardinals. In fact those 5 teams are a combined 42 games under .500 so far this season! The Reds lack of hitting will catch up with them soon and it is likely right now against a Phillies team that finally got their sticks going. Philadelphia has won 6 straight games and has scored an average of 7.2 runs per game in their 5 most recent victories. The Reds have won 3 straight games but yesterday's game was the 4th time in last 6 games that has seen Cincinnati held to 3 or less runs. The Reds have averaged just 2 runs scored in those 4 games. Conversely, the Phillies have scored at least 4 runs in 8 of last 11 games including at least 5 runs in 5 straight games. The Reds Greene is a strong pitcher who has piled up strikeouts this season but he did allow 6 earned runs in most recent home start. Also, the Phillies Suarez has allowed just 16 hits in 26 innings plus has not allowed any runs in the 15 innings spanning his last two starts! Also, these lineups don't have much experience against these starting pitchers but the Phillies have 5 guys who have enjoyed success versus Greene and those 5 guys are a combined 10 for 21 which is huge! The Reds just have two guys who have had some success against Suarez and those guys are a combined mediocre 3 of 11. The more potent lineup plus a starting pitcher who has thrown 15 straight scoreless frames in his last two starts. Lay it with the road team in this one. PHILADELPHIA -117

Rotation #503: NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +170 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - Amazingly, since the Lakers beat the Pelicans AT New Orleans Tuesday in the first post-season game (part of the play-in portion of the schedule), 13 STRAIGHT post-season games have seen the home team win straight-up! Yes, a 13-0 SU playoff run for the hosts! This is unusual and will not continue. Road wins are a part of every post-season and this looks like a great spot for one here. The Sixers were +14 with Joel Embiid on the floor in Game 1. The next game after this is Thursday at Philly. The 76ers know they will have multiple days to rest up after this game and they know that going into an 0-2 hole is going to be tough to overcome. Their bench let them down in Game 1 but not only would I expect them to be better in Game 2, I also expect them to be used even less in this one. This game is going to come down to a determined group of Sixers starters giving it their all after they let Game 1 slip away in the 4th quarter. The Knicks bench outscored the Philly bench by 35 points (42 to 7) and yet New York still trailed in the 4th quarter and only won the game by a single digit margin. The Knicks bench is NOT going to again shoot 8 of 13 from three point land! No way! The point is that there were some crazy stats in Game 1 that have swung the value in favor of the underdog in Game 2. I know we could grab the points here but I am going for the bigger payout with the money line. The 76ers will bring a relentless effort here. I am sure of it! 4 of the 5 Knicks starters combined for a 17 of 52 shooting performance from the field and the Sixers will again be hammered by the New York bench in Game 2. There will be adjustments here and Philly gets on top again and this time does not relinquish the lead. Huge, desperate, underdog effort here and finally another road team wins SU in this post-season! PHILADELPHIA +170

Rotation #201353: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2 -125 in Roma vs Bologna @ 12:30 ET - This is a contrarian play. As long-time followers know, I like to use contrarian angles. The recent history of meetings between these clubs is very few goals. Also, both clubs enter this match in current form that has been trending under for weeks now. However, if you look at some of the key statistics like overall shots as well as shots on goal, there is an indication something different is brewing right now for each club! I particularly like the aggressiveness I have seen from Bologna recently on the attack and, being the road club in this one, I look for a strong push from the visitors and this will illicit a response from Roma. Note that Roma has scored an average of 2 goals per match in league action as a host but is allowing 1 goal per match even at home. Though Bologna does not score as well on the road as they do at home, they are still averaging 1 goal scored on the road and also allowing 1 goal per match as a traveler in league action. Roma does have a game in hand on Bologna but the fact they are trailing them by 4 points in the table, I do not foresee them settling for a share of the spoils here. That said, the odds of a draw are slim as Roma only has 3 draws in 16 matches on their home pitch this season. I look for each club to make the net ripple and then eventually this match finds itself at 2-1. The value of the over being available at 2 goals strengthens this spot and I will not hesitate to get involved. OVER 2 -125 in Roma

Rotation #73: NHL Tuesday Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 -165 @ Florida Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Worth the price here to have the 1.5 goals. I know the Lightning scored very late in the 3-2 loss in Game 1 but the Panthers had just scored into an empty net just minutes earlier for a 3-1 lead. It was a tie game entering the 3rd period and Vasilevskiy did play very well for Tampa Bay. That was a key after he struggled some late in the season. If Vasilevskiy is back in top from, this is going to be a very interesting series! The Panthers Bobrovsky was 17-29 in his career in the NHL post-season prior to his big playoffs performance last season. That was certainly no fluke last season but, the point is that Florida certainly does not have a big edge here in goal by any stretch of the imagination. Bobrovsky has had his share of post-season ups and downs through the years. TB will come out even hungrier in this one now after losing Game 1 in a very competitive match-up. That leads to line value in a spot like this with a game that is likely to be tight again throughout. The Panthers, it goes without saying, truly are a highly talented team but the Lightning are so disciplined and well coached and they did a great job of limiting the Panthers of scoring chances of quality for long stretches in Game 1. In Game 2 I look for the Bolts to come out strong and put Florida on its heels a bit early. That will shift the momentum a bit here and I expect an early lead and the Bolts to continue to grind. I do expect the upset but could see a tight battle decided on a late goal or even in OT so I am taking advantage of a reasonable price on the puck line in this one. TAMPA BAY +1.5 -165

Rotation #929: Tuesday OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - Big total here but the wind will likely be blowing out for this one. First toward center and then perhaps toward right-center as the game goes on. The Cubs have hit well at home and have a solid batting average there. Their bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack for team ERA while the struggling Astros have a bullpen ERA that ranks among the worst in the majors! Considering this match-up also features two struggling starting pitchers, I expect plenty of runs here. Even though Jordan Wicks has been piling up strikeouts he has just to complete 5 innings in any of his 4 starts this season. Wicks has allowed 30 baserunners in those 17 innings as he has given up 21 hits plus walked 9! That spells trouble here against an Astros lineup that will be ready to explode after a shutout loss in their most recent game. As for the Cubs, they have scored an average of 6 runs when at Wrigley Field this season and they are facing JP France in this one. The Astros hurler, just like Wicks, has a high WHIP so far this season as he has given up 26 hits plus walked 8 in his 20.1 innings so far this season. Baserunners and hitter friendly conditions expected throughout this one and that means double digits likely here! Don't let the big number keep you away. This is a great spot for a slugfest. OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs

Rotation #206973: Romania Liga 1: Tuesday OVER 2 -135 in FC Botosani vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 12:30 ET - Botosani out for revenge from a 2-0 home loss the last time these clubs met in the regular season. Now it is a key play-out battle as both clubs looking to avoid relegation. These were two of the worst clubs in the regular season overall but both showed a lot of fight and determination in the latter stages of the regular season and that has continued into the post-season. That said, value here with this total available at 2 goals in the marketplace. Prior to the 2-0 Dinamo win at Botosani, 4 of the last 5 meetings had totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Long-term numbers would support the low total here for these clubs but look at the recent action! Botosani has had 4 of last 5 matches total at least 2 goals and 3 of the 4 totaled at least 3 goals! Also, they have scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches at home and averaged scoring 2 goals in those 6 matches! As for Dinamo, after some tough times earlier this season, they have averaged 1 goal scored last 16 matches. The problem for the boys from Bucuresti, and it continues here, is they have allowed 31 goals in their 18 matches away from home this season. You can see why I am expecting both clubs to score here and then note that Dinamo has had only a 20% draw rate dating back to the beginning of season with 7 in 35 matches. As for the hosts, they have had just 5 draws last 24 matches prior to a 1-1 draw in most recent match. 2-1 final is my projection in this one. OVER 2 -135 in Botosani

Rotation #200017: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 3 -125 in Arsenal vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - Because of the question mark surrounding Chelsea star Cole Palmer (illness) for this match Tuesday, we are getting excellent line value here with this total held down at 3 goals. Two strong clubs meeting here and, of course, Arsenal is a 1 goal favorite on the goal line with good reason. Logically building off that, I just do not see Chelsea being shutout here. They had so many great chances in the 1-0 loss to Manchester City Saturday. They just failed to cash them. That said, one can logically expect at least a 2-1 type match here though I am surely expecting a lot more and with good reason. Chelsea, in EPL matches, has gone over the the total in 9 of last 10 matches. Not only that, all 9 of those matches have totaled at least 4 goals and actually averaged 5 goals apiece! Entering this match, Chelsea is on a 6-0 run to the over in EPL matches with all 6 of those totaling at least 4 goals! The Blues also have seen 4 of last 5 meetings with Arsenal (across all competitions) total at least 4 goals! Arsenal just delivered a clean sheet versus the Wolves but they had allowed 5 goals in last 3 matches across all competitions prior to that 2-0 win. Also, Arsenal is scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match in EPL action this season but Chelsea averaging 2 goals per match in league action and I am sure will be on the attack in this one after the way the match with City played out! Look for 4 or more here and we'll take advantage of this total available at a 3 as of overnight hours heading into Tuesday. OVER 3 -125 in Arsenal