Scott Rickenbach

Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 4:10 ET - The Rays gave up two runs in the bottom of the 8th to lose last night's game. I fully expect them to bounce right back today. Tampa Bay is still 16-8 on the road this season and that gives them the 2nd best road record in the majors this season. The Indians are one of the worst hitting teams in the majors and I expect Charlie Morton to enjoy plenty of success here. Yes, Morton is off a rare sub-par outing but the Rays right-hander simply made a few mistake pitches. He only allowed 4 hits in that start against the Yankees. In fact, Morton has allowed only 21 hits in his last 27 and 2/3 innings on the mound. On the season, Morton has held opponents to a .203 batting average! He'll be opposed by Carlos Carrasco and he has been roughed up in 3 of his last 5 starts. In those 3 outings (including 2 at home!), Carrasco has been rocked for 11 earned runs in 19 and 1/3 innings. Yes that equates to an ERA north of 5.00 and we're getting excellent line value with the road dog here. The Indians, even including yesterday's win, are still just 1-4 this season at home when the money line is +125 to -125. As for the Rays, they are 6-2 this season on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. Also, TB is a fantastic 12-5 this season when off a loss. Carrasco deserves respect but so does Morton and the latter is the more consistent of the two pitches. Couple that with the situational edge off a loss, the favorable money line as an underdog, and having the better hitting team on our side and this one is a top play situation. 10* TAMPA BAY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #902 Saturday MLB 6* Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:20 ET - As long-time followers know, I rarely lay much juice in money line sports. Generally I play mostly totals, small favorites, and underdogs. Certainly you will never see me laying crazy 2 to 1 odds and planning to win long-term in doing so. That said, this one is in a very reasonable price range (-145) and I am reducing my rating to a 6* here so I can take advantage of this situation. The Cubs blew a 4-0 lead yesterday. Then, after allowing the game to get tied up at 4 they took the lead in the bottom of the 8th only to relinquish the lead (and eventually the game) in the top of the 9th as they lost 6-5. That puts the Cubs in bounce back mode here and I like a couple of key factors here in addition to the bounce back spot. The wind is expecting to be blowing out today and the Cubs have the much more potent lineup in comparison with the Reds. Also, the Reds Tyler Mahle has been doing a decent job of piling up strikeouts but the Cubs Yu Darvish has strikeout numbers of late that are "off the charts" good! The fact is that the ball can't be driven out of the yard if contact is not made. That said, advantage Cubs in this one! Darvish has struck out 25 in his last 15 and 1/3 innings overall and that included dominating the Reds on the 15th of this month. Cincinnati's Mahle struck out a modest 5 in 6 innings in his start last week. Also, he struck out only 4 in 6 and 2/3 innings in his most recent start against the Cubs. Chicago is off back to back losses and they have not lost three straight games since early April! Even including yesterday's win, Cincinnati is only 6-14 in day games this season and only 7-13 in divisional games this season. Also, the Reds are 0-7 in Mahle's road starts this season! Look for the Cubs to improve to 10-3 this season when they are a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175 on the money line. 6* CHICAGO CUBS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:30 - This line opened up at a pick'em and has risen to a -2.5 on the Raptors. Consider that Milwaukee also entered Game 4 off a loss in Game 3 of this series. The line for Game 4 was the Bucks -3. So now we have seen this line completely swing in the opposite direction. The last time these teams played in Toronto the Bucks were favored by 3 and now they are the underdog by 3 points. Of course that is not where the odds makers set the line, that is what the markets are forcing. Long-time followers know whom I like to side with in the majority of cases like this and this one is no exception. I'll side with the odds makers and fade the markets here. We are simply getting exceptional line value here. Milwaukee has lost 3 straight games for the first time this entire season. The Bucks also have failed to cover the spread now in 3 straight games which is also rare for them this season. The last two times that has happened they got blowout wins by a double digit margin in their next game both times. I am not saying we're going to necessarily see a road rout here but I am expecting an outright win and am happy to have the points on my side as added insurance. Milwaukee shot 45% from the field in Game 5 and held Toronto to 37%. So what happened in that game that led to the loss? The Bucks allowed too many uncontested threes. The Raptors had 18 threes compared to just 10 for Milwaukee. That is a difference of 24 points. At the free throw line Toronto outscored the Bucks by 12 points. When you consider those stats combine for a 36 point advantage and yet the Raptors only won the game by 6 points you can see why I am not so impressed by Toronto like the betting masses are. Give me the points here which is where the sharp money is very likely to go in this game! The Raptors don't have a good history in this situation as they are 5-11 SU when leading in a playoff series. The Bucks are 16-4 ATS (19-1 SU) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. 10* MILWAUKEE