Freddy Wills Freddy Wills

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 19, 2020
Liberty vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty
+14½ -110
  at  5DIMES
started

Liberty +14.5 1.1% Free Play

Nearly 70% of the tickets and 80% of the money has rained in on Western Kentucky, and this line has gone over the key number of 14.5.  I really do not understand it, and I'm fading the steam here.  To me Western Kentucky does not deserve to be a double digit favorite, and their game where they nearly covered the spread against Louisvile a week ago was completely misleading.  They got 14 of their 21 points off of 5 yards of offense when they blocked two punts in the game.  Tyrone Pigrome is being touted as a positive for this Western Kentucky team, but I think he makes the offense completely one dimensional.

Liberty lost a ton of guys, and only return 9 starters, and did not get to play last week so I get why the line moved from 13 to 14.5, but it's not justified in my opinion.  If anything there is some film out there on Western Kentucky, and the defense struggled big time containing a Louisville offense that features a mobile QB in Cunningham.  LIberty brought in Malik Willis from Auburn, a mobile QB, and I trust Hugh Freeze as the head coach in his second year.  He's a good recruiter, and a good offensive coach, so I expect Liberty will be just fine offensively, and should be in this game. 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 19, 2020
#Houston vs #Baylor
#Houston
+4 -110 at 5Dimes
P
Play Type: Premium

Houston +4 3.3% play 

This line has moved from 7.5 all the way down to 4, and not in our favor.  I preached fading the early season steam moves, but this is an exception.  Actually over the last 3 years during week 1 and 2, if you back steam moves of 3+ points with a closing line of less than 21 points on away dogs you'd go 10-2 ATS.

This was a last minute change in game scheduels due to COVID and the opponents these two teams were supposed to play, but it is an in state game that is actually pretty important for Houston and recruiting over the next few years.  Baylor is coming off a great season, and have a ton of question marks here as they bring in a new head coach, Dave Arranda from LSU, and return just 9 starters, and had 0 spring practices. 

1st year head coaches just 2-8 ATS this year, and this Baylor team is rebuilding after losing a ton of talent.  They do return their QB Charlie Brewer, who I am a big fan of, but I have questions if he's going to make it through a game, or the season.  He had a ton of issues with concussions last year and trying to play through them.  

Houston, has a 2nd year head doach, and 19 returning starters, 8 spring practices, and a lot more continuity.  Houston also has a ton of P5 transfers, and won't be scared of this moment.  Big 12 teams also went a horrible 0-3 last week against non-power 5 opponents.  I believe Houston could pull the upset but for a 4 point dog +150 dog is not worth it. 

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Season Awards: This network is one of the most competitive network of handicappers with over 90 professional experts.  2009 & 2011 I was the #2 handicapper for the entire year!  I also have had several top 10 finishes including, #1 NCAAF 2009, #1 NCAAF 2011, #2 MLB 2009, #5 NFL 2010, #6 NCAAF 2013, #7 NCAAB 2012, and #10 MLB 2011.   

My Promise To You: All of my information is 100% backed by a guarantee and is fully researched and supported by my in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I personally bet these plays too so it is only fair you understand my logic.

Who Am I: I have been wagering on sports for more than a decade and I've been doing it professionally for 5 years. In 2008 I started my own service and have been earning my clients an impressive return on investment which is solidified by multiple national handicapping season awards for MLB and College Football. This is something I take very seriously. That is why every single recommendation I make comes with a full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I want you to know my logic behind ever one of my picks.

Best Moments: In 2011 I predicted Iowa State +28.5 over Oklahoma State on a Friday night, but not only did I predict and play the spread I also predicted Iowa State to win the game outright as a 22:1 under dog. Iowa State won in over time to shock the nation and knock Oklahoma State out of the BCS National Championship race. Aside from that I have profited in every single of every sport on my signature play of the day's (POD's).

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