March
Madness Picks from Jimmy Boyd
Before filling out your tournament bracket it may be
worth your while to take a look at the
NCAA
Tournament history. Let’s begin with the past 5
Champions as often times looking back too far can be a
hindrance. Three of the last 5 Champions have come out
of the ACC with North Carolina beating Illinois last
year, Maryland defeating Indiana in 2002, and Duke
winning over Arizona in 2001. Before North Carolina
reemerged as National Champions last season the Big East
collected titles in 2003 and 2004 with Syracuse and
UConn. Picking an ACC team or a Big East team should be
a safe bet to win it all. But don’t rule out the Big 10.
A Big 10 team has made the title game 3 of the last 6
years with Michigan State winning it all in 2000. In a
year when the Big 10 was the strongest conference from
top to bottom, a Big 10 team could be strong pick to win
it all. If we are using history, we can rule out the Big
12. The Big 12 has only had one team make the
championship game in the last 5 years with Kansas losing
to Syracuse in 2003 and Kansas could be the Big 12’s
best chance this year, but it’s hard to know how such a
young team will react under the pressure of the NCAA
Tournament. I’m ruling a Big 12 champion out.
When you’re picking your Final Four, you may want to
strongly consider having a 3 seed, as 3 seeds have made
it to the Final Four 3 of the last 5 years with a pair
of 3 seeds making it in 2003. Including 2 seeds in your
Final Four is a must, as at least one 2 seed has made
the Final Four 4 of the last 5 NCAA Tournaments.
Surprisingly 5 seeds aren’t bad picks for the Final Four
either as three 5 seeds have made the National
Semifinals 3 of the last 6 years including Michigan
State who made it as a 5 seed a year ago. The trouble
with taking the 5 seed out is risking the chance that
they could be knocked out in the first round by the
infamous 12 seed pulling off an upset.
All 5 of the schools with the most national titles are
in this year’s tournament field. UCLA leads the group
with 11 all-time titles and the Bruins are enjoying
their highest seed in a number of years. Kentucky and
Indiana follow UCLA with 7 and 5 titles respectively,
but with Indiana as a 6 seed and Kentucky as an 8, I
don’t see either team adding to their totals this year.
North Carolina and Duke cap off the top 5 with 4
national championships for the Tarheels and 3 for the
Blue Devils. It could be the most storied teams who have
the best chance to win the 2006 Tournament. UCLA, Duke,
and North Carolina have legitimate shots at cutting down
the nets in Indianapolis.
Notice that we haven’t talked about any 4 seeds in our
list of Champions. Although Louisville made it to the
Final Four as a 4 seed last season, 4 seeds aren’t safe
bets. In fact a 13 seed defeating a 4 has been the big
first round shocker over the last 7 years. Oklahoma
pulled off an upset over Arizona back in 1999 as a 13
seed. In 2001 a pair of 13 seeds defeated 4’s, and
unlucky 13’s were able to knock off 4 seeds in 2002,
2003, and 2005 as well. You may want to strongly
consider finding a 13 over a 4 upset in this year’s NCAA
Tournament.
History doesn’t always repeat itself, but I think these
are a few strong leads to consider.
