If you didn't get enough madness this weekend, or were
out of town, don't sweat it. You get to go mad all over
again! This is a unique week as teams play for the NCAA
title while those that missed the Big Dance have to
settle for an NIT title. One of the great parts of March
tournament play is the amount of sidebars that can pop
up with respect to
march madness handicapping.
That is, tournament play offers bettors many different
factors to analyze and digest.
With the games meaning so much in the Big Dance, this is
a great time to mention how important defense is. Strong
defense requires all out effort from players, and we are
now reaching that point in the year where the meaning of
games is far more intense. Simply put, you either win,
or go home. That's different than the regular season and
even far different from the conference tournament play
that we just witnessed. Many teams that lost, such as
UConn and North Carolina, still knew they'd be playing
again this week. But now, it's win or your season -- no
matter how great it might have been -- is over.
Don't be surprised to see a lot more fierce defensive
games with so much on the line now. A good example of
what to expect just took place in the SEC and Conference
USA title games. Memphis and UAB, two strong offensive
teams, played lights-out defense in a 57-46 Memphis win.
That went under the total by 41 points! And Florida beat
South Carolina for the SEC title, 49-47, in a game going
under the total of 130. It's more common to see close
games and intense defensive battles.
Two years ago, UConn went 2-1 under the total in the Big
East tournament, holding Notre Dame to 58, Villanova to
67 and Pitt to 58, one that started a 5-1 under the
total run the rest of March. Wisconsin, too, turned on
the defense that season, going 2-1 under the total in
the tourney, knocking off Illinois 70-58 as a one-point
dog in the title game. This is the time of the year for
defense!
In fact, you can find a whole bunch of teams that just
got invited to the Big Dance that can really turn up the
defense when they want to -- teams like Wisconsin, NC
Wilmington, Southern Illinois, Texas A&M, UCLA, Memphis,
Pitt, Indiana, Kentucky, Utah State, Air Force, George
Mason, Georgetown and Pacific.
And many have already been great 'under' plays against
the spread: UCLA is 18-11 under the total, Southern
Illinois is 19-13 under (23-8 under last season), and
LSU is 17-10 under the total. Over the next month you
will see upsets, fantastic finishes and plenty of rugged
defense. Because March is money time! Good luck, as
always...
Al
McMordie.
