By
Tony George
Now the brigade of recreational sports bettors line up
at the window and provide, and sometimes take away, line
value from us "Sharps" as March Madness is in full
swing. It is apparent to me that one has to sidestep a
few landmines along the way, as LESS is MORE when it
comes to betting March Madness, both in the NCAA and NIT
tourneys that are underway on Tuesday Night. The is
plenty of parity, especially in the NIT tourney this
year in college basketball. I can say without question,
or many arguments that there are 5 or 6 teams in the NIT
that could be round 1 winners in the big dance, and a
few possible sweet 16 teams in there as well. Always
look at road records and home records in NIT game
match-ups, since they are played on teams courts and do
not go to a neutral site until the semi-final games in
New York. The home team always has an advantage, and one
might catch a short line or two that has value.
High seeds in the NIT sometimes have a let down spot,
since they were rejects from the NCAA tourney committee.
Cincinnati comes to mind in that category, as well as SW
Missouri State (RPI of 21) and Creighton. These teams
for example, have first round byes and will be laying a
decent number at home in their first NIT game, and
depending on the line, it may be worth looking at the
underdog in those scenario's. Maryland is just happy to
be here, and they are a regional #1 seed, and
Louisville, which also should provide a stiff test in
their first game, so those big boys might be WORTH a
look!
NCAA tourney trends are everywhere, I would not buy into
all of them, look at the right here, right now. Who came
limping in the tourney, and who came in hot and on a
roll, I look to Kansas for example, 15-1 their last 16
and they won the Big 12 Tourney over Texas, who pounded
them by 25 earlier this year? That is the question that
makes the money. How about shooting percentage in away
games on the year? I cannot stress enough free throw
percentage, many games outcomes depend on it.
I have heard so much about #5 seeds versus #12 seeds. In
the last 5 years #12 seeds are 10-9-1 ATS, hardly a
money maker even against the number, but are always
competitive. The BEST ATS scenario in round 1 has been
#7 seeds versus # 10 seeds in the past 5 years at 13-7
ATS. California vs. NC State is in this scenario this
season, Marquette vs. Alabama as well, and I could see
both those #7 seeds making the hay in round 1. And last,
but not least, #15 seeds have covered 65% ATS overall
the past 5 years, and always a huge underdog. This fact
lies within the coach of a #2 seeded team resting
players after the game is decided early on, and backdoor
covers are apparent in the right scenario. Check the two
highest point getters and do your homework and find the
best value in that scenario.
All in all, it should be a great tourney season, and
there will be a Cinderella team or two both in the NCAA
and NIT tourneys, and there will be a monster upset or
two in round 1. Pick and choose your teams wisely, use
our
march madness betting tips, use sound money
management and do not get caught up in all the hype or
what Billy Packer or Digger Phelps says, and do your
homework and look for real value and tangible items to
handicap in March Madness, because that is what the
pro's do, I assure you.
