Conference Tournament Betting
College basketball begins it's second season when conference
tournament betting begins this week. The Horizon League and Ohio Valley Conference begin
their post-seasons on Tuesday with the Missouri Valley Conference
following and then most of the others beginning Friday. The regular
season is just about over, so players, coaches, handicappers and odds makers all have a good idea of the strengths and weaknesses
of each team.
One thing to keep in mind as this second season begins is
defense. That is, teams are more likely to display all-out
defense for 40 minutes, far more so than at any time during the
regular season. What’s happening is that during the regular
season, there are many times when a team can coast. If a team is
winning big, like North Carolina did vs. Maryland on Sunday (a
17-point halftime lead), that team can relax in the second half
and not exert as much effort defensively as they would if it
were a close game.
Coaches can empty the bench or substitute more liberally, giving
rest to their best players, and game experience to some off the
bench. The same is true if a team is getting blown out. However,
tournament play is a different animal. The games are more likely
to be close and certainly far more meaningful, especially as the
tourney gets closer and closer to the championship game.
Take a look at a wide-open offensive team like
Wisconsin-Milwaukee of the Horizon League last season. They won
the Horizon tournament and two of its three games went under the
total. In the championship game against Detroit, neither team
could top 60 points, even though Milwaukee averaged 75 per game
during the season.
The games mean more, so players and coaches are likely to demand
a stronger defensive effort. Defense takes a lot of work -- more
so than offense. A player has to stay close to his man, know
when to rotate, come after opposing shooters, think carefully,
box out, grab a loose rebound. None of that is easy. There’s
plenty of mental energy used, as well as physical. Players need
to constantly think about what they’re supposed to do and what
their opponent is doing.
A similar thing happened to Duke last season. They won the ACC
crown by beating Virginia, NC State and Georgia Tech. After
averaging 78 ppg during the regular season and 80 ppg in ACC
play, the Blue Devils fell below that scoring average in all
three ACC tourney games. All but one game went under the total,
as well. In fact, Duke went under the total in four of six games
in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.March Madness
Brackets
Remember that all of these touranments are going to have a
significant effect on March Madness brackets and those schools I just mentioned had run-and-gun reputations.
Look at a team like Illinois, which was versatile enough to play
any style an opponent wanted last season. The Illini won the Big
10 title allowing 51, 56 and 43 points! That was far below its
season average of 61 ppg allowed. All three of Illinois' Big 10
tournament games sailed under the total. If you look at all of
Illinois’ postseason games last season, the Illini went 7-1-1
under the total in all games, including its 75-70 loss to North
Carolina in the NCAA Championship game. So enjoy all the madness
that gets set to take off this week. And don’t be surprised if
you see a little more defense than offense.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie's picks here.
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