Scandal. Demagogic leaders. Unpredictability. Amazing
inefficiency and ineffectiveness. Gratuitous nudity. Bad
suits, worse accents, and more glad-handing than any
Normal Human could stomach.
Yup, the teams that comprise the Washington, D.C. Region
fit this town better than a Bill Clinton condom. Wait,
he didn't use condoms…
Here is one man's look at the bracket that could
bankrupt your stack quicker than the Republicans ripped
through our budget surplus:
No. 1 Seed: Connecticut
My complaint against them is that they don't have that
go-to perimeter scorer that can hit a three, beat guys
off the bounce and just create his own shot. You can say
Rudy Gay, but he doesn't have the demeanor and hasn't
proven himself. They still have the most talent and the
best overall team. However, over the last two years
Connecticut and North Carolina were locks entering the
Big Dance. This year UConn is the clear favorite, but
they are by no means a lock.
No. 2 Seed: Tennessee
Okay, because I take time to slam them further down in
this column I'm going to accent the positive here. The
Vols can score on anybody at any time. They average an
absurd 81.3 points per game, which is ninth in the
nation, and they shoot nearly 40 percent from behind the
arc, 19th in the nation. Bruce Pearl gets my vote for
Coach of the Year. And at a time when guard play is
everything, C.J. Watson and Chris Lofton are as good as
any pair in college hoops.
But there's still no way they deserve this seed.
No. 3 Seed: North Carolina
No team had ever lost as much firepower and talent as
the defending national champs. But Tyler Hansbrough has
emerged as a force and the Tar Heels have remained
prominent. However, I have said before that this is the
time of year that I expect their youth to catch up with
them. They are not going to walk through Murray State in
Round 1, and they should definitely become George Mason
fans. GM plays Michigan State, which would be a very
tough second round match up for UNC. Let's also not
forget that before last season's title, Roy Williams
wasn't exactly Mr. March.
No. 4 Seed: Illinois
Dee Brown has always been money in the Madness, and I
would be surprised if his swan song wasn't something
sweet. They don't have the guns to win it all, but
there's no way that they're going to go quietly. Air
Force is a tricky draw, but they should overpower the
Falcons. After that, the chalk says Washington, and I
expect them to control that one. But when it comes to a
date with UConn, it's not going to happen for Illinois.
No. 5 Seed: Washington
These guys are ridiculous. One second they look like a
better-than-average club with one star (Brandon Roy) and
some capable supports. The next they look like a JUCO
team. They play Utah State, which is a team that defends
very well and always manages to get good shots. If the
Huskies survive they could face a very proud Illinois
crew. A Sweet 16 berth would be akin to a national
championship for these clowns. But the more likely
scenario has them losing in one of those trademark 5-12
upsets.
Best first-round match up: No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Air
Force
If you want to watch a clinic of how to run an offense,
watch this game. These two are both extremely efficient
and effective in their sets. The Illini have a huge
advantage because of their superior athleticism and the
inside-outside combo of James Augustine and Dee Brown.
However, I don't know if you can play the Experience
Card with the Illini. This isn't nearly the same team
that went to the finals last year.
Best potential second-round match up: No. 4 North
Carolina vs. No. 5 Michigan State
Two public teams with recent NCAA titles could lock up
in a marquee game on Sunday. North Carolina plays with
more determination and heart, but Michigan State has a
severe advantage in regards to tournament experience. Of
course, I know this is a sucker bet. I'm positive of it.
The Spartans have been a chump team all season (see:
13-17 ATS) and they don't defend the perimeter (232nd in
3-point defense). They have little or no heart, and no
depth off the bench. But precisely because it makes no
sense, that's why the Spartans have a great chance of
winning.
Upset Alert (first round): No. 15 Winthrop vs. No. 2
Tennessee
No, this isn't some knee-jerk reaction to the Vols being
handed an undeserved No. 2 seed. Winthrop, which was a
couple of ill-fated possessions away from beating
Gonzaga last year, brought back 12 of its top 13 players
and I've been touting them all year. Tennessee, much
like the real volunteers in the South's Civil War
militia, doesn't play any defense. They're 312th in the
country in field goal defense, 201st in rebounding, and
have lost four of their last six outings. SEC teams have
the worst first-round record of any of the Big Six
conferences over the past five years (17-12). Also,
Miss. St. in 2004, Florida in 2003, Alabama in 2002, and
South Carolina in 1997 all failed to make it through
opening weekend as a No. 2 seed.
Upset Alert (second round): Too many to choose from
There were a ton of potential upset games here (George
Mason over UNC, MSU vs. UNC, Winthrop over Seton Hall,
Utah State over Illinois). When things go awry in this
tournament, it's going to start right here in this
bracket. There are a ton of landmines in our nation's
capitol. The largest potential buster is UAB over UConn.
I don't think it will happen, but that's the one game
that could crush office pools across the nation.
Dark Horse Teams: No. 12 Utah State and No. 13 Air Force
Because everyone has been trashing these two crews since
the bracket was announced (the thugs from the
Cincinnati's team would roll down to Utah State for a
drive by, but I don't think they could find Utah on the
map) one of them is going to win in the first round.
It's a lock. These guys aren't dark horses because
they're going to make a run at the Final Four. They're
sleepers because they have the potential to snipe out a
pair of teams (Washington, Illinois) that could've made
a run.
Team That Makes Me Nervous: Michigan State
As you know, there are a lot of teams that make me
nervous in this region. North Carolina is young.
Washington is squirrelly. Kentucky is schizo. Tennessee
is excitable. But Michigan State started the season in a
lot of people's top five and then went on to finish
seventh (yes, seventh) in the Big 10. You know the
talent is there, and Tom Izzo is an outstanding tourney
coach, but this club is a real dicey bet. Paul Davis is
a wet paper towel, and Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager
are playing for the highlights. Not a winning formula.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com.
The views expressed in this article are not necessarily
those of
Doc's college basketball picks service.
