There's certainly not going to be much defense going on
in the Oakland Region. That seems fitting for the
laid-back Left Coast, and Memphis, UCLA and Gonzaga are
all capable of scintillating offensive play.
I'm not going so as far as to call these teams "soft,"
but let's just say that with so many
defensively-challenged clubs in one bracket, that could
open it up for a hard-nosed team like Pittsburgh or
Arkansas to do some damage.
Here's my humble view of the
2006 Oakland Region
Preview for Doc's 2006 March Madness Preview:
No. 1 Seed: Memphis (30-3 overall, 15-15 against the
spread)
I am amazed at how quickly people are dismissing Memphis
in this bracket. They have the most athletic team in the
field, and a pair of stallions in Rodney Carney and
Darius Washington. They are overlooked because they
didn't play in a big-time conference, but they dominated
inferior competition because of the zeal with which they
defend and rebound. Also, they started the year by
beating UW-M, Alabama and UCLA - all tournament teams.
They lost by three to Duke and by 11 to Texas, but
they've beaten Gonzaga and are 8-3 against other schools
in the field.
No. 2 Seed: UCLA (27-6 overall, 19-10 ATS)
The Bruins will be a very sheik Final Four pick. And
with good reason. They have fabulous guard play, a load
of athleticism and youth, and have proven themselves as
the Best of the Left (Coast, that is). They are 9-3
outside of Pauley Pavilion, and enter the tourney on a
seven-game winning streak. They've won those seven by an
average of 17 points, including a 19-point maiming of
Cal in the Pac-10 championship, and are on a 9-1 ATS
surge. However, since 1999 only one Pac-10 team
(Arizona, 2001) has made the Final Four.
No. 3 Seed: Gonzaga (27-3 overall, 12-18 ATS)
This bracket is tailor-made for the Zags. Xavier is a
pushover. Indiana and SDSU can't hang. If they advance
that far, Gonzaga would meet either UCLA or Marquette
and we would see about 400 points in either game. I know
that they have been a perennial tournament
disappointment since bursting onto the scene in the late
1990s as a bracket buster. But if they're ever going to
make a serious move and take their program to the Next
Level this might be their best opportunity.
No. 4 Seed: Kansas (27-6 overall, 18-11 ATS)
The Jayhawks are the hottest team entering the NCAA
Tournament, winning 15 of their previous 16 games. They
have 10 freshman or sophomores on their roster, which
makes me extremely nervous. But what they lack in
experience they make up for with the hustle,
determination and grit that you'd expect from a veteran
club. They are the best team in the country in field
goal defense, holding opponents to a miserable 36.8
percent shooting. They are also the one of the ten best
rebounding teams in the nation.
No. 5 Seed: Pittsburgh (24-7 overall, 15-10-1 ATS)
In a two-on-two game, I may take center Aaron Gray and
point guard Carl Krauser over just about anyone in the
nation. In fact, the Panthers may be too reliant on
their senior engine. They are 0-6 in games that Krauser
hasn't led the team in scoring, and if Kent State can
find a way to neutralize him, Pitt could face their
second consecutive one-and-done. Pitt is 28th in the
nation in field goal defense and 11th in defensive
rebounding.
Best first-round match up: No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 10
Alabama
I like the Golden Eagles here, but there's one thing
holding me back: Marquette has been weak on the road
this season. Alabama has been gutsy all year, and was
moderately surprised by how their seed slipped. The
Crimson Tide have been pretty hot-or-cold in past
tournaments, but they never lack for effort. The
match-up to watch here is outstanding freshman point
guard Dominic James from Marquette against sensational
sophomore point guard Ronald Steele from Alabama.
Best potential second-round match up: No. 4 Kansas vs.
No. 5 Pittsburgh
From what I've heard, a lot of the bobbleheads have the
winner of this game coming out of the region. They've
both been outstanding over the last month, and are both
big names from Power Conferences. Expect a low-scoring
grinder - which is exactly the type of game where a
senior stud like Krauser can make a difference.
Upset Alert (first round): No. 12 Kent State vs. No. 5
Pittsburgh
The dreaded 5-12 meeting. Pittsburgh just has not been a
very good NCAA Tournament team over the past few
seasons. I think that Krauser can will this team into
the Sweet 16, but I also expect them to be a bit worn
down after playing four games in four nights in NYC. The
Golden Flashes are tournament staples, and have knocked
off one of the big boys before. This is more of a "Why
Not" pick.
Upset Alert (second round): No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 2
UCLA.
Last year it was West Virginia knocking off Wake Forest
in the second round. I think another Big East school
will play the spoiler role this year. Remember, the
Golden Eagles are one of just three teams that beat
UConn this season and they are the ninth-best
three-point shooting team in the country. UCLA has a
tremendous advantage playing in their back yard, but
West Virginia managed to head out to Cali and top the
Bruins earlier this season, so they are not impervious
to defeat.
Dark Horse team: No. 9 Bucknell
I know that this is a huge reach here, but the Bison are
not afraid of anyone. Period. In the last year they have
handled Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Kansas. They brought
back 12 of their top 13 scorers from last season's
tournament team, and are in the top 40 in the nation in
field goal percentage and three-point shooting. But what
I really like about them is that they are second in the
country in points allowed (55.3) and fifth in field goal
defense (38.1 percent). They just flat-out get after you
defensively. Their first-round game against Arkansas is
one of the best match ups we'll see on Thursday or
Friday. If they can hold off the Razorbacks, that will
be an excellent primer for a meeting with Memphis.
Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 3 Gonzaga
I noticed something about the Zags while watching them
play in the WCC Tournament: Adam Morrison's teammates
don't look like they enjoy playing with him. I'm dead
serious. I'm a big Morrison Fan, but he's like a prima
donna wide receiver that is always open and always wants
the ball. I think it wears on his teammates. Did you see
them when their seed was announced on Selection Sunday?
No emotion. They still don't defend very well, and they
think they can outscore opponents. That doesn't win
titles.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com.
The views expressed in this article are not necessarily
those of
Doc's college basketball picks service.
