O.K., everyone stop what you’re doing, put your
2006 NCAA
brackets away and take a deep breath. After a weekend
where underdogs across the country all seemed to look like
20/1 Derby Lane greyhounds running the race of their lives,
it’s time to clear our heads and get back to basics. Let’s
face it, when a team like Syracuse can be an underdog in
four straight games (in four straight days) and wins all of
them, for a conference crown, we all need to take a break.
Like a car that has just taken a cross-country trip, we need
to tune ourselves up.
Just as the NHL, MLB and of course the NFL, the NCAA
basketball tournament is a whole new season. The slate is
clear and all previous sins are forgiven. The world beaters
of February have to show up for the first round of the
regionals this weekend as focused as the team who’s on a
dream run and doesn’t have one scholarship player. Last
year’s National runner-up, Illinois, opens up against an Air
Force team that didn’t even watch the selection show because
they figured they had no chance of getting an invitation.
Well, on Thursday at 4:25pm. (PST) the Falcons will tip off
in San Diego against the Illini and they’re getting 8½
points worth of support.
The NCAA tournament has gotten so big that it even hits
seasoned handicappers like a hurricane wind gust. Over
recent years we’ve seen unknowns plow into the tournament
and buzz saw through everyone’s brackets on day one. I was
in attendance last year when Vermont, the America East
representative, stunned Syracuse in the first round. Even
the small section wearing the Catamount’s yellow and green
didn’t believe it. Then, less than two hours later, people
were snapping their pencils when Bucknell brought the city
of Lawrence, Ka. to a stand still as the Bison upset the
Jayhawks. Folks, 95% of the betting public couldn’t even
tell you where Bucknell is, never mind tell you if they can
win a tournament game? You could fit the Langone Recreation
Center in Lewisburg, Pa. INSIDE of Phog Allen Field house,
the home of Jayhawk hoops. With upsets like these having
happened so recently that the pain still lingers in people’s
guts; fans in “bracketland” are now looking to find the next
“shock the world” scenario and want to be a part of it.
That’s not what we’re all about.
Anyone reading this article isn’t interested in storybook
dreams and Cinderella fantasies. We’re handicappers, looking
at lines and finding weaknesses and advantages that we can
pounce on and cash winning tickets. If your Aunt Margaret
brings home a bracket from her pool at work and asks you to
help her fill it out, that’s great entertainment, but in the
real world of “Big Boy” gambling, brackets have absolutely
nothing to do with winning money from a casino in Las Vegas.
What makes this tournament such a puzzle is that all games
are played on neutral courts. In the inexact science of
picking winners, that’s the difference between indulging on
surf-n-turf or redeeming Big Mac coupons.
Back on February 25th, Kansas headed to Texas on a 10 game
winning streak to play the Longhorns in a Saturday night
ESPN game. Texas, on their home court, was a 6 ½ point
favorite. On that night, Kansas could have been getting 16 ½
points and it wouldn’t have mattered. The Jayhawks looked
like a deer staring at headlights in the second half and got
blown out by 25, it was a complete mismatch. This past
Sunday in the Big 12 final, the two teams met again on a
neutral court. Kansas won by 12.
Another difference that makes this tournament format unique
is the extensive travel involved. The “TV” teams in the big
conferences have deep pockets and don’t think twice about
writing checks for airfare and hotel costs throughout the
regular season. For those fortunate ones, the tournament is
nothing new. For others, it’s a new experience in itself.
The Penn Quakers dominated the Ivy League by riding buses to
and from games and rarely play weekday games because it
interferes with their academic schedules. Their longest road
trip since Christmas break was a 360 mile ride to play
Dartmouth. This week they’ll travel over 1,500 miles to play
Texas in another time zone.
As you comb through the lines for Thursday and Friday,
remember, every team is a road team. Everything’s equal from
the time the teams get off the plane, until the national
anthem. We’re betting pure basketball, complete with
match-up zones and game plans, from here on out.
Don’t get caught up in all the excitement that CBS will
throw at you as they go from game to game. Betting every
game and half time line is the equivalent of gambling
suicide, you’ll bury yourself. Relax, enjoy the games and
most of all, bet with confidence. Know what games you like,
and when you get a good line, fire away. For the record,
tell Aunt Maggie that No.15 Winthrop is going to give No.2
Tennessee all they can handle.
By: Steve Kosmider
kozsports@comcast.net